Some four years ago, when the then candidate Bola Tinubu felt hemmed in by friends and foes alike and saw his political ambition to become the President of the country slipping away, he made the famous ‘Emi l’okan’ statement at a gathering of APC faithful in Ogun State. It was a statement which bewildered many people, including, I must say, some of his political admirers. Not a few saw it as a meltdown. Subsequent developments however showed it was not as careless an outburst as many first felt. It was a coded message which was not sent to two hundred million Nigerians, or even one per cent of them, but to a very select few who knew of his journey and the pacts they had made along that journey. His hints of fighting dirty if necessary, might have been derided, or even dismissed by many. But not by this select few who knew the dossier he had on them - like Epstein Files.

A couple of weeks ago, the now President Tinubu sent out what can be seen as another coded message. It was, like the last one, also at the meeting of the APC party faithful. Only this time, it was at the meeting of the 36 State coordinators of ‘Renewed Hope Ambassadors’. He took a swipe at the leading personalities in the opposition party when he referred to their past misdeeds in government. He then virtually looked them in the eye and declared ‘Me? They want to scare me off. It is a lie. I am Jagaban’. The unwary might think it was the usual brickbat that politicians throw at themselves. Maybe, it is. But there just might be more to it than meets the eye. Jagaban I understand, is a title given to astute warriors in the North-east - like Balogun in Yorubaland. In his case, as a political warrior. Tinubu has fought many political battles in his life and has rightfully earned the sobriquet having emerged victorious in many of them. But could he have been alluding to more than political warfare at this time? After all, there are different types of ‘war’ going on in the country at the moment. Like economic war - the war to ‘save our souls’, the war on banditry.

Of these wars, it is in the theatre of political warfare, that Tinubu, as the Jagaban of Borgu, seems to be in the ascendancy. The opposition, like ambushed troops, is at best in disarray here, if not disintegrated, despite recent, almost desperate attempt to present a common front. Every major political party seems to have deep internal divisions. And every effort to re-group and re-arm seems to fall apart. Chinua Achebe said in ‘Things Fall Apart’ that ‘the White man is very clever. He has put a knife on the things that held us together and we have fallen apart.’ Could Tinubu, like this ‘clever’ White man in ‘Things Fall Apart’, be the one holding a knife to the things that should have held political parties together? Is his hand the unseen one behind the never ending problems in the opposition parties or are the parties disintegrating under the weight of their own contradictions? Their own greed? Their own lust for power? While it can be disingenuous to blame all the woes the political parties are facing on Tinubu, or the ruling party, not a few Nigerians believe the presidency knows a thing or two about why opposition can’t seem to get its acts together. More poignantly, and for the purpose of this article, is the belief that opposition is convinced the presidency is behind its woes because it is angling for a one party state. This conviction has thus given opposition its right to fight back with the weapons at its own disposal.

These weapons include propaganda and disinformation which are common to opposition everywhere during electioneering. They include rallies and protests. History however, points at something more insidious which has reared its ugly head in the country. Insecurity. Violence and inflammatory rhetoric have always become more heightened at every electoral cycle. They went up a notch or two during Chief Obasanjo’s second term bid. They have increased in intensity since then to the crescendo they are now under Tinubu’s second term bid. It is therefore difficult not to believe that some unseen hands are weaponizing insecurity in the country for political gains. It is difficult not to believe that there is a tit for tat going on. That a deadly game of chess is going on where moves and counter moves are being traded to the detriment of the country. After all, if some unseen hands are making political parties unstable, then some other unseen hands can also be making the country itself unstable. So when President Tinubu said ‘I am not scared. I am Jagaban’ It could be a coded message that says ‘I know your game plan to destabilize the country for political gains. I am not afraid of it. I am a warrior.’ He alluded to this again during the recent meeting of past governors of Plateau State which was convened to find a lasting peace to the beleaguered State.

Most of what is fueling the insecurity in the country can be dealt with if leaders thought more of the country than their personal advantages. Some of the causes of insecurity are clear. They are a dangerous mix of poverty, illiteracy, religious zealotry, uncontrolled population, infrastructure deficit and dearth of job opportunities. Those who are using insecurity as a tool to destabilize the country would have to find other tools if these were addressed. Politicians would then find it difficult to find new recruits for the army of thugs they use to intimidate opponents. By the same token, the causes of instability in political parties include lack of ideology, lack of respect for due processes and unbridled and sometimes inordinate personal ambitions. Those who seek to weaken or even wreck political parties would also then find it a lot harder to do if these were addressed by nascent or even existing political parties. The country sorely needs parties that are based on ideology and clearly identifiable goals. Looking for any multi-purpose vehicle as a route to power is insulting to a discerning electorate.

A tit for tat, if it exists, serves neither the interest of democracy nor of the country. The country deserves peace. It deserves to be weaned off people who destabilize the polity and the country because of personal ambitions on either side. People who think it is either their way or the highway.

Unfortunately, when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.

•Muyiwa Adetiba is a veteran journalist and publisher. He can be reached via titbits2012@yahoo.com

Update news