Across markets in Nigeria, shoppers’ decisions are made in seconds. A mother reaching for a packet of noodles, a bottle of cooking oil, and a loaf of bread, does not check the sodium levels, trans fats or sugar content.

Like most shoppers, she never picked these products for nutritional value, but for price and familiarity.

Yet health experts warn that these small, routine choices repeated millions of times across Nigeria are accumulating into a national health emergency.

Today, Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), once considered conditions of affluence or old age, are now rising fast in Nigeria.

Currently, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers and chronic respiratory illnesses are increasingly affecting younger populations and draining both household incomes and national productivity, with experts linking the trend to diet, lifestyle changes driven by urbanisation and processed foods.

Globally, NCDs have quietly become the dominant health challenge of our time. Conditions such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes now account for about 41 million deaths each year, representing roughly 71 percent of all global deaths.

What makes this burden even more concerning is that about 15 million of these deaths occur prematurely, between ages 30 and 69, cutting lives short during their most productive years.

The weight of this burden does not fall evenly. Globally, about 77 percent of NCD deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, like Nigeria, where health systems are often less equipped to manage long-term illnesses. In these settings, people are more likely to be diagnosed late and have limited access to continuous care.

In Nigeria, this global pattern is unfolding rapidly but with added complexity. The country is still battling infectious diseases, yet non-communicable diseases are rising steadily, creating a double burden of disease.

Recent estimates suggest an NCD prevalence of about 16.8 percent, with increasing cases of hypertension, diabetes, cancers, and chronic respiratory conditions. Unlike the gradual transition seen in high-income countries, Nigeria is experiencing this shift more abruptly, making it harder for the health system to keep pace.

Households often bear the cost of long-term care out-of-pocket, with average annual spending on NCD treatment estimated at around ?122,000. For many families, this is not sustainable about 30 percent experience catastrophic health expenditure, and roughly 20 percent are pushed into poverty due to the cost of managing chronic illnesses.

Many NCDs are linked to modifiable risk factors, unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, tobacco use, and harmful alcohol consumption.

Experts say addressing these risks through prevention, early detection, and stronger health systems offers a clear path forward.

During the first Nigeria Heart Foundation (NHF) Mark logo month in Lagos, health professionals maintained that Nigeria’s food environment has become a major driver of disease, and that urgent intervention is needed at the point of consumption.

Former Chief Medical Director of the Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH), Prof. Akin Osibogun, said the trend is already reshaping national development.

“In 1992, less than 10 percent of Nigerians had high blood pressure. By 2003, it had risen to 35 percent. Today, it is about 40 percent, that means one out of every three adults may be hypertensive.”

Osibogun who is also the Executive Director, NCD Alliance Nigeria, warned that the implications go beyond health statistics.

“When people die in their 40s and 50s, the country loses decades of productivity. Those living with these conditions also lose productive capacity.”

Osibogun said Nigeria has reached a turning point where NCDs and injuries have overtaken infectious diseases as leading causes of death.

“Treating hypertension alone can cost between N40,000 and N50,000 monthly. Many patients skip drugs or reduce doses, which leads to stroke and heart failure. People hide their conditions because of discrimination, and that worsens outcomes,”Osibogun explained.

He highlighted hidden costs such as transport to hospitals, loss of income and stigma associated with chronic illness, warning that the cost of inaction is already visible. “If we do not act now, the economic and social consequences will be severe.”Against this backdrop, experts say prevention must now take centre stage and food is the most powerful entry point.

Food as medicine, or risk

Speaking, the Nigerian Heart Foundation, Dr. Kingsley Akinroye said the organisation’s Heart Mark logo was designed to simplify nutrition decisions in a complex food market.

“When you see the red Heart Mark, it means the product is low in salt, sugar, trans fat and cholesterol, and high in fibre. It allows consumers to make quick, informed decisions without reading complex labels.”

He explained that the certification system is backed by strict testing and annual re-evaluation conducted in collaboration with the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC).

“It is a watchdog system to ensure healthier products reach the market,” he said.

Akinroye said for years, Nigeria lacked laboratory capacity for such work, forcing food testing abroad.

“We used to ship products to South Africa for analysis for about 15 years, now we have ISO-certified laboratories in Nigeria.”

Nutrition transition driving disease

Nutrition experts at the summit said Nigeria is undergoing a dangerous dietary shift, with processed foods increasingly replacing traditional diets.

Prof. Salisu Abubakar of the Nutrition Society of Nigeria said poor diet remains one of the strongest drivers of chronic disease.

“Proper nutrition is central to preventing NCDs. If Nigerians adopt healthier eating habits, we can significantly reduce heart-related diseases.”

Former President of the Nutrition Society of Nigeria, Prof. Wasiu Afolabi said cardiovascular diseases now account for about 27 percent of NCD-related deaths in Nigeria. He linked the rise to urbanisation and increased consumption of foods high in salt, saturated fats and trans fats.

“Our diets are changing faster than our awareness. We need urgent consumer education and food reformulation,” he said.

From the public health system, Dr. Alayo Sopekan of the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare described NCDs as “silent killers” that often go unnoticed until complications develop.

“Most people do not know they are hypertensive or diabetic until they present with complications. We must identify those at risk early and act on modifiable factors.”

She said Nigeria now has a national policy on NCD prevention and control, but stressed that implementation requires stronger collaboration across government, industry and civil society.

Why food labels matter

Across presentations the presentation at the summit, one idea repeatedly surfaced is that Nigeria cannot hospitalise its way out of the NCD crisis.

Experts said prevention must begin in supermarkets, open markets and food production lines, where decisions are made.

They argued that the Heart Mark logo, is part of that shift, a simple visual cue designed to guide consumers in a food environment increasingly dominated by processed products.

It also aims to push manufacturers toward healthier reformulation through certification pressure.

Akinroye described it as both consumer protection and industry reform.

“If products do not meet standards, they are sent back for reformulation,” he said.

The experts insist that, the fight against NCDs may not be won in hospitals, but in markets where a small red heart on a food label could quietly become one of Nigeria’s most powerful public health tools. (Vanguard)

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