Fears of a fresh fuel price hike this week are mounting after the United States President, Donald Trump, abruptly cancelled a second round of diplomatic talks with Iran in Pakistan at the weekend.

With the doors shut against possible talks to ease tensions amid growing uncertainty over the fragile geopolitical balance in the Middle East, marketers warn the standoff could tighten supply expectations and trigger price volatility.

The development has heightened anxiety among import-dependent economies, with operators bracing for possible cost spikes in days ahead.

Some top oil marketers who spoke to Daily Sun in separate interviews on Sunday said the withdrawal of envoys from the Pakistan talks by President Trump has far-reaching implications for the market, especially the cost of refined petroleum products.

The Chief Executive Officer of Trend Energy Limited, Chidinma Agu, said: “Without sounding like an alarmist, we may begin to witness a rise in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise called petrol.”

The chief executive noted that uncertainty is clouding the market, prompting holders of fuel stocks to tread carefully. He explained that many operators are reluctant to sell immediately, preferring to wait for clearer price signals. Offloading products too quickly, without a firm sense of where the market is headed, she warned, could prove disastrous, potentially sounding the death knell for their businesses.

In Apapa, some of the marketers shared similar sentiments with Agu, stating that supply at the weekend was epileptic as a result of recent developments in the Middle East.

They explained that Monday will set the tone for the week when marketing activities fully resume across the major depots.

Reports indicate tightening fuel stocks around the Calabar axis, raising fresh concerns that the collapse of the Pakistan talks could further strain supply, spreading shortages beyond the region and deepening market pressure.

As of the last trading session, only Soroman and Northwest depots were reported to have active product availability, reflecting constrained supply across the zone.

Though a 20,000 metric tonne PMS cargo destined for Sobaz depot in Esuk Utan, Calabar, is currently being handled following the arrival of MT Savanna, as coastal supply continues to support product availability in Nigeria’s eastern corridor.

The cargo was sourced from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through a ship-to-ship transfer arrangement involving MT SABAERK. Loading operations at the refinery have been completed.

MT Savanna arrived yesterday in Calabar and is presently discharging into Sobaz jetty facilities located in Esuk Utan, Calabar.

The incoming volume is expected to ease pressure on depot inventories and improve product accessibility within the region, as marine deliveries continue to play a stabilising role in Nigeria’s downstream distribution network.

Officials at the depot confirmed the vessel’s arrival and discharge status, stating that it arrived yesterday and is presently discharging at the Sobaz jetty. They added that sales are expected to resume from Monday once discharge is completed.

“It is not likely that sales of products from that vessel will commence today (Monday). Depot operators in the country are keenly watching the market because of developments in the Middle East. And if they are to sell at all, prices will have to change. It is not likely that they will sell at the prevailing market rate,” another source said.

According to the weekly pricing tracking on petroleumprice.ng, as of last Monday to Friday, Lagos PMS prices showed mild fluctuations across major marketers: Rain Oil: N1,206 to N1,230 (up N24), Bono: N1,207 to N1,205 (down N2), Ascon: N1,206 to N1,204/N1,205 (marginal movement), Nipco: N1,206 to N1,204/N1,205 (slight decline), Aiteo: N1,206 to N1,204/N1,205 (slight decline), and Pinnacle: N1,204 to N1,204 (stable).

Trump confirmed the cancellation in remarks to Fox News, saying: “We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you’re not going to be making any more 18-hour flights to sit around talking about nothing.”

The development comes as tension around the Strait of Hormuz continues to rattle energy markets, with analysts warning that supply risks remain elevated and any disruption to shipping lanes could quickly tighten global crude flows.

He also downplayed fears of immediate escalation, stating: “No. It doesn’t mean that. We haven’t thought about it yet,” when asked whether the decision signalled a return to hostilities.

Before the cancellation, the White House had said envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were en route to Islamabad for what was described as an “in-person conversation” aimed at advancing diplomatic engagement with Iran.

In Islamabad, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had already concluded meetings with Pakistan’s leadership, describing the discussions as “very fruitful,” while noting that Tehran had presented a “workable framework to permanently end the war.”

He added: “Have yet to see if the US is truly serious about diplomacy,” reflecting continued mistrust between both sides despite ongoing mediation efforts.

Araghchi is expected to continue consultations in Oman and later Russia as Iran intensifies diplomatic outreach amid rising regional tensions and competing security interests.

Military-linked Iranian statements have maintained that control over strategic maritime routes remains central to Tehran’s deterrence posture, warning that any prolonged restrictions would not go unanswered.

European officials have urged immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that “this is vital for the entire world,” given its role in global energy supply chains.

Market watchers say oil prices are now highly sensitive to any further escalation, with expectations that crude could spike as early as Monday morning if trading resumes with heightened risk premiums already priced in.

With diplomatic channels unsettled and regional actors holding firm positions, attention has now moved to see if backchannel negotiations can still prevent a deeper escalation that could spill further into global energy markets. (The Sun)

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