The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) projects an image of perfect peace, but the reality is different. As the 2027 elections draw closer, the consensus option championed by the National Working Committee is sparking quiet revolts in several states. From Ogun East’s Senate tussle to governorship battles in Lagos, Kwara, Nasarawa, Rivers, Benue, and Oyo, the leadership’s claim of unity masks a widening internal rift. The push to anoint preferred candidates has opened cracks the party can no longer hide.

The leadership insists consensus will apply only where stakeholders agree. Yet in states with multiple strong contenders, agreement has proven elusive. Without transparent internal mechanisms, the strategy risks trading short-term order for long-term cracks.

Ogun

In Ogun State, the APC is on the verge of a split over the Ogun East senatorial ticket, now a fierce contest between Governor Dapo Abiodun and incumbent Senator Gbenga Daniel.

The party’s national body promotes consensus to avoid primaries, but that strategy is colliding with realities on the ground in Ogun East. While a section of stakeholders is nudging the governor toward the Senate seat, citing his executive record and what they call a yawning gap in current representation, Daniel’s supporters reject any move to impose consensus. They insist he deserves a fair primary and accuse the state party hierarchy of writing the script before aspirants emerge, warning that a forced consensus could fracture the APC base in the district.

Abiodun’s supporters counter that consensus reflects popular demand, not imposition. They cite his succession plan that ended Yewa/Awori marginalisation as proof he carries a statewide mandate. For them, a primary would be wasteful theatre when the electorate has already decided.

Party elders, however, admit the optics are delicate. “Consensus only works when it is truly consensus,” a senior chieftain said. “If Ogun East leaders feel railroaded, we risk the same implosion we saw in the Gbenga Daniel era,” he maintained.

Though the governor has yet to declare, the push for consensus is already heating up rivalries that could define the party’s 2027 chances.

Tension spiked recently when Senator Daniel was allegedly blocked from a stakeholders’ meeting at the Adeola Odutola Hall in Ijebu-Ode.

Former Ijebu North East Local Government Chairman, Otunba Tayo Onayemi, said the news that Daniel was denied entry broke 40 minutes into the meeting. The incident capped weeks of intrigues surrounding his purported suspension from the party, despite the national leadership’s clarification that there is no suspension.

For the Ogun East Senate seat, the consensus being pushed is anything but unanimous. Hon. Adekunle Akinlade, an APC chieftain, argues consensus avoids the rancour of divisive primaries. “Consensus is not an imposition when the people have already spoken. Governor Abiodun’s record is the consensus. A primary would only waste time and resources chasing what the streets have decided,” he said.

Mrs Funmilayo Adeyemi echoed the sentiment: “We are not asking for a coronation. We are asking the party to respect performance. You don’t compare a man who built 1,500km of roads and gave us an airport with someone who cannot point to one federal project in eight years.”

But the media office of Sen. Adebola Adeleye countered, insisting on direct primaries as a test of popularity. “The APC Constitution is clear: consensus means agreement by all aspirants. You cannot have consensus of one. Let us go to the field. If the governor is popular, let him test that popularity in a primary,” the statement read.

Alhaji Sulaimon Olowu, APC Ward Chairman, Ijebu-Ode LGA, backed that position. “This tension is unnecessary. We had primaries in 2019 and 2023. Why is 2027 different? Consensus cannot mean we shut the door against loyal party members,” he said.

Chief Jide Ojuko, an APC elder from Ogun Central, took a neutral view: “Consensus is a double-edged sword. It saved us during the 2023 succession, but it will destroy us if used to erase competition. Ogun East deserves a process that leaves no one aggrieved. The party must manage this carefully.”

Tolu Folarin, former Ogun State Attorney-General, also cautioned against alienating loyal members. “The governor has a right to contest like anyone else. The incumbent has a right to defend his seat. What the party cannot do is pretend there is agreement where there is none. That is how you lose elections before the ballot,” he said.

Lagos

The tension in the Lagos APC is defined by an entrenched political machine managing a vast field of aspirants. Its selection process is highly structured. Recently, the party ran a rigorous ratification exercise, clearing hundreds of aspirants through grassroots congresses ahead of the National Convention. The system is designed to maintain tight control over the political ecosystem.

But while the hierarchy aims for order, the process often sparks friction with aspirants who see ratification as a filter for establishment-approved candidates. The cycle is familiar. Critics have long accused the party of using administrative procedures to stifle internal democracy and impose candidates, fuelling persistent, even if managed, instability.

About two weeks ago, tension spiked after media reports claimed Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat had been endorsed as the consensus governorship candidate. On April 13, Hamzat reportedly met GAC leaders Prince Tajudeen Olusi, Mutiu Are, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and others. Unverified online accounts claimed Otunba Alebiosu Bush was moved to tears after Hamzat secured the GAC nod.

The rumour followed President Tinubu’s meeting with South-West stakeholders, where Hamzat’s name allegedly emerged as the consensus pick. In Lagos, GAC backing is often read as decisive. Hamzat’s consultations with the GAC and Oba Akiolu signal he’s following the traditional succession playbook.

Members of the Justice Forum, a Lagos APC group, are also said to have backed Hamzat after Tinubu’s alleged endorsement, a move that stirred excitement among workers at the Alausa Secretariat. Hamzat’s supporters frame it as payback for loyalty: he stepped down for Sanwo-Olu in 2018.

The APC traditionally favours consensus. But the Lagos chapter is wary of the appearance of imposition after the fallout with Akinwunmi Ambode. State Chairman Cornelius Ojelabi has publicly denied any anointment for 2027. “Claims that the All Progressives Congress has settled on a consensus governorship candidate for Lagos State ahead of the 2027 election have been dismissed. No agreement was reached on candidate selection for Lagos or any other state,” he said.

Unofficially, key blocs are already moving, causing friction. Despite the denial, Hamzat’s camp is acting like consensus exists — and parts of the party structure are backing him. While Rep. James Faleke rallies support for Hamzat, Ambode’s supporters also claim Tinubu’s backing.

Amid the mixed signals, observers are watching how the race unfolds with strong contenders like Tokunbo Abiru, Mudashiru Obasa, and Jandor still interested. However, speculation is rife that Obasa might have jettisoned his governorship ambition. A recent report said he confirmed the President’s endorsement of Hamzat as consensus candidate after returning from Abuja.

Publicly, the chapter says no consensus, direct primaries. Privately, powerful blocs — GAC members, Faleke, Justice Forum — are consolidating around Hamzat, citing his 2018 sacrifice and 20-plus years of experience. Rival aspirants are pushing back, insisting primaries must hold. The tension mirrors the backlash to consensus in Ogun East.

Nasarawa

In Nasarawa, the tension is explicitly tied to the succession plan for the post-Abdullahi Sule era.

Governor Sule’s recent endorsement of Senator Ahmed Wadada has become a flashpoint. Many stakeholders view it not as broad-based consensus, but as a strategic move that could sideline other aspirants.

Party leaders had promised a level playing field and emphasized consensus and inclusiveness. The current reality is a fractured state chapter. The rift between the Governor’s backers and those demanding an open contest has escalated.

The chapter now faces pressure to reconcile competing interests, with some factions publicly calling for direct primaries to block what they see as top-down imposition.

Tension escalated when Governor Sule took Wadada to President Bola Tinubu at the Villa and introduced him as his successor. His predecessor, Senator Tanko Almakura, called the move an aberration.

While acknowledging the governor’s democratic right to choose a successor, Almakura insisted due process must be followed. He said Governor Sule did not consult widely before unveiling Wadada.

He spoke during a Channels TV interview: “This, to me, is an aberration. It is a little too hasty at this point when the party has not brought out guidelines for the primary exercise. This is in spite of the fact that quite a number of people are angling for this position.

“There was no proper consultation among critical stakeholders to secure a unanimous position on his decision. It is a violation of due process.

“I can say without any fear of contradiction that I was not consulted before any candidate was taken to the Villa to meet Mr. President. The sentiment that Wadada is his choice is very unfair to the people of Nasarawa State. Nobody denies the governor his democratic right to have a choice. But no matter how hurried he is to have someone succeed him, due process must be followed. And the due process must be either consensus or direct primaries.

“About a week ago, we had a meeting of all stakeholders in the governor’s lodge in Abuja. We all agreed that it is going to be direct primary. The contentious issue of zoning was even shelved. The governor himself categorically confessed to have made a mistake in calling for zoning. We agreed on that day that the process to bring out the choice of the people will be direct primary.

“It is not fair to the party; it is not fair to stakeholders because we were never consulted. It is also not fair to the President that somebody should be taken to him without consensus, without unanimous understanding.”

Other aspirants and their supporters also argue that consensus is being used to bypass the grassroots. This has created a visible rift, with many warning that a forced consensus could trigger defections to the SDP or PDP.

Kwara

In Kwara, the consensus push is reopening the North-South fault lines the APC papered over in 2023.

There is a strong sentiment that consensus is simply a euphemism for imposition, which could trigger a revolt. Ahead of primaries, stakeholders warn that the Otoge movement that brought the current administration to power was built on ending political imposition.

Unlike states with a single godfather, Kwara has multiple independent power centres and aspirants who see themselves as equals. In Kwara North, leaders are already insisting the next governor must come from their region.

Former Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Salman Jawondo, SAN, a vocal advocate of power shift, said Kwara North had shown enough loyalty to the APC and should produce the next governor. He noted that since 1967, Kwara North has governed for just one and a half years, while Central and South have ruled for 20 and 18 years respectively. “Equity and fairness demand that Kwara North should be given opportunity to produce the next governor,” he said.

On voting strength, he argued zoning to Kwara North “is the surest way to win election because the South will not vote for anybody from Kwara Central.” The North and South, he said, can deliver the spread.

Findings show the situation is turbulent, with State Chairman Prince Sunday Fagbemi trying to streamline candidates to avoid a do-or-die primary. A party supporter, who asked not to be named, said that without a single power centre to enforce it, an attempt to force consensus might deepen the divisions it was meant to heal.

The national body wants consensus to prevent a fractious primary, but aspirants in both zones are digging in.

Kwara North leaders argue it is their turn after successive governors from Central and South. “You cannot talk consensus when you have not addressed justice,” an APC chieftain from Baruten said. “The North has been loyal since 2019. If consensus means South again, the party will pay for it.”

Kwara South aspirants counter that the ticket should go to the strongest candidate, not geography. “We buried zoning to win in 2019. Consensus must reflect capacity, not rotation,” said a former commissioner from Oyun. “If the people want performance, let no zone be shut out.”

Party elders admit the state is too volatile for imposition. “Kwara is not Lagos. Consensus without buy-in will revive the old Saraki-era cracks,” a State Caucus member warned. “We need primaries if aspirants won’t step down willingly.”

With Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq term-limited, the absence of an anointed successor has turned consensus into a proxy war between zones. Like Ogun East, the consensus being pushed is anything but unanimous.

Benue

In Benue, a major political development is the Senate’s directive to INEC to restore three state constituencies — Ukum II, Konshisha II, and Gboko I — based on a December 2025 Court of Appeal judgment.

Beyond that, some aspirants have rejected the consensus arrangement adopted by the APC leadership. The processes, which began across state and federal constituencies, have triggered open disagreements among aspirants and their supporters, with many insisting on direct primaries. They argue that party members — not leaders or influential individuals — should determine their fate.

One development sparking tension is the purported indefinite suspension of five appointees of Governor Hyacinth Alia in his Vandeikya home Local Government.

The party said the suspension followed acts of misconduct allegedly displayed by the appointees during the zoning exercise.

A statement issued by the APC Vandeikya LGA Publicity Secretary, Apaa Tindim, stated: “The APC Central Executive Committee, stakeholders, and ward chairmen across the twelve council wards in Vandeikya Local Government Area convened an emergency meeting, where they unanimously resolved to suspend the following appointees from participating in party activities within Vandeikya LGA.”

The statement claimed the suspended appointees failed to comply with directives issued during the zoning process and instead resorted to harassing and insulting party stakeholders publicly during the exercise in Tiev Constituency, Vandeikya LGA.

However, Governor Alia has cautioned aspirants against invoking his name for political advantage, stressing that he has not endorsed any candidate.

“As a product of the people’s choice myself, I am not the one to decide anyone’s electoral fate. The people are there to decide and make their choices. I am not making choices for anyone. If you want to contest elections, go out there and talk to your people, convince them to choose you. That is democracy,” he stated.

Rivers State

The political landscape in Rivers State is defined less by formal consensus and more by power-struggle dynamics.

The situation Is characterized by a lack of consolidation, with the relationship between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike remaining the defining factor.

Unlike other states, there is no evidence of a political consensus. Instead, the state continues to navigate an unfinished political transition, where authority remains contested between the incumbent governor and the persistent influence of his predecessor.

The ongoing friction within the State House of Assembly and executive-legislative relations underscores a state where political survival currently supersedes broad consensus-building.

While Governor Fubara maintains grassroots support, largely seen as a desire for a break from long-standing political dominance, the state remains at a crossroads between persistent contestation and the stabilization of power.

Oyo

In Oyo, the consensus push is running into the state’s fractured APC architecture and the long shadow of 2023’s loss to the PDP. Currently, former Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu, Teslim Folarin, and others are being mentioned in Oyo APC circles for 2027. Adelabu recently resigned from Tinubu’s cabinet to pursue his governorship ambition.

The party’s national body wants consensus to prevent another divisive primary, but the Oyo chapter is a patchwork of legacy blocs — Ajimobi loyalists, Adelabu’s camp, Folarin’s structure, and newer entrants from Accord and SDP — with no single godfather to enforce a deal.

The governorship race Is already drawing multiple heavyweight aspirants across the three senatorial districts. While some elders are shopping for a unifying candidate to present as consensus, aspirants are resisting any process that looks like imposition. “Oyo APC lost in 2023 because the grassroots felt shut out,” a former commissioner from Ogbomoso said. “Consensus without consultation will give Seyi Makinde a second victory before the ballot.”

Ibadan zone, which holds the largest voting bloc, is pushing for retention, citing population and past sacrifices. Oke-Ogun and Oyo Central leaders counter that equity demands rotation. “You cannot preach consensus and ignore justice,” an APC chieftain from Saki said. “If it’s not our turn, then let the field decide.”

State Chairman, Isaac Omodewu, has been holding closed-door meetings to trim the aspirant list, but sources say talks have stalled. “Everyone wants consensus if he is the consensus,” a member of the State Working Committee admitted. “Nobody wants to step down for the other.”

The memory of the 2022 primaries still haunts the chapter. Parallel congresses, litigation, and defections weakened the APC before the general election. Party elders warn that forcing consensus now could repeat that implosion. “Oyo is not Lagos where GAC can announce and everybody falls in line,” an elder from Ibadan North said. “Here, consensus must be earned, not declared.”

With no incumbent governor to anoint a successor and no clear Tinubu directive yet, consensus in Oyo remains aspirational. For now, the push for unity is exposing the same cracks It was meant to seal. The absence of agreement has left direct primaries as the default — and the most feared — option.

Legal implications

New provisions in the updated Electoral Act 2026 require written consent from all cleared aspirants for a consensus candidate to be valid. If even one aspirant refuses to sign, the party is legally forced back to a primary, leading to the current arm-twisting tactics seen in these states.

Under this framework, forced consensus is not just a political risk. It is a legal minefield that can lead to the total disqualification of a party’s candidates.

The most critical legal hurdle is that consensus is no longer a decision the party leadership can make unilaterally. For a consensus candidate to be legally valid, all cleared aspirants for that specific position must provide their written consent to withdraw from the race in favour of the consensus candidate.

Under the new Act, a single dissenting aspirant can collapse the entire consensus arrangement by refusing to sign the withdrawal letter. If the party proceeds without this signature, the nomination is void.

If a consensus arrangement fails or is challenged because an aspirant refused to sign, the law mandates that the party must revert to direct primaries where every card-carrying member votes.

Because the rules for consensus are now strictly codified, any breach is considered a pre-election matter.

Any aspirant who felt coerced into a consensus can approach the Federal High Court to challenge the nomination. If a court finds that the consensus was forced or that the mandatory ratification convention required by Section 87(3) was not properly held, it can nullify the nomination. Since the window for submitting candidate lists is now shorter — reduced to 90 days before the election — a party may run out of time to conduct a fresh primary, leaving them with no candidate on the ballot, similar to the APC’s 2019 experience in Zamfara.

Under Section 84(1), INEC retains the power to monitor all primaries. If INEC’s report indicates that a consensus was reached through intimidation or without the required signatures, the commission can refuse to accept the candidate’s credentials, citing a breach of the party’s own constitution and the Electoral Act.

Overall, the Electoral Act 2026 has essentially weaponized the individual aspirant. Forced consensus is now legally impossible if an aspirant has the courage to withhold their signature and sue.

Avoiding the legal minefields of the Electoral Act 2026 is possible, but it requires the APC to move away from executive orders and toward a more documented negotiation process.

To bypass the risks of litigation and disqualification, the party is currently employing several strategic maneuvers. In most cases, party elders engage aspirants before they are officially cleared to contest.

The party often convinces aspirants that a consensus with a promise of a future appointment or refund of their form fees is the safer bet.

Under Section 87(3) of the new Act, even a consensus must be ratified. To avoid a Zamfara scenario, the party is becoming meticulous about the paper trail.

The most effective way to avoid a lawsuit is to make the losing aspirants feel like winners. For this, the APC is using political MoUs: promises of Senate slots, ministerial roles, or state cabinet positions in exchange for a peaceful consensus. This is said to be part of the strategy stakeholders discussed when President Tinubu met governors elected on the APC platform in Aso Villa ahead of primaries. (The Sun)

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