Pep Guardiola has an uncanny ability to time his season right.

Like a long-standing sitcom, much of Guardiola's Manchester City career follows the same story arc: a bright September before his side begin to struggle.

As fans and pundits begin to predict City's downfall, Guardiola tinkers with his squad before a long winning streak results in his club being crowned Premier League champions.

Whether that storyline plays out at the end of this season is yet to be seen but Guardiola has finally landed on a system he trusts for the run-in.

Getting here, however, hasn't been easy.

Gameweek one

Of the team that started last Sunday's win over Arsenal, only three started their opening league match on 16 August – Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku and captain Bernardo Silva.

City won 4-0 against now relegated Wolves.

The key differences then were that Rico Lewis and Rayan Ait-Nouri moved in-field from their full-back positions to support Nico Gonzalez while Silva moved into a more attacking midfield position alongside Tijjani Reijnders.

Out of possession, City pressed high. Doku and Oscar Bobb defended close to Haaland, but that often left Wolves' full-backs free.

That detail would become important. Across the season, City would repeatedly tweak their defensive structure as opponents found various ways to find the spare man.

Early on, City leaned into attacking transitions.

Inspired by assistant Pep Lijnders and signings like Reijnders, they attacked quicker than previous Guardiola sides, destroying Wolves on the counter. This also suited Haaland, who started the season in impressive scoring form but was something Guardiola later reeled in, preferring more measured games.

Screengrab showing the positions of City's full-backs and midfielders in their opening game of the season against Wolves.

Rayan Ait-Nouri and Rico Lewis move into more narrow positions from full-back. Nico Gonzales anchors the midfield with Tijjani Reijnders and Bernardo Silva pushing on

Gameweek two

On 23 August, City lost 2-0 at home to a Tottenham side who are now battling relegation.

Omar Marmoush replaced Doku, while Rayan Cherki came into midfield instead of Silva alongside Gonzalez and Reijnders.

The principles stayed the same – invite pressure before looking to release fast attackers into space.

As the season progressed, man-to-man pressure has been a key trend. Guardiola's early attempts to deal with this lay in drawing opponents on to City before launching the ball early, looking to find Haaland and Marmoush two against two in the opposing half.

Screengrab showing Haaland and Marmoush in a two against two situation as Trafford kicked it long from a goal kick situation.

City drew Spurs' players on to them from goal-kicks, leaving Marmoush and Haaland up top resulting in a two against two

City pressed in what looked like a 2-3 shape. Haaland jumped to the centre-back in possession while Bobb and Marmoush started narrow before being asked to press the full-backs. At times they were slow to get across, allowing Pedro Porro to play accurate long balls down the line.

Spurs vacated the centre and overloaded the flanks, resulting in Gonzalez often finding himself with nobody to mark while the defence played a high line and offside trap to minimal success.

A screengrab showing how Spurs scored against City's high line by playing a long ball and overloading the flanks.

For Spurs' first goal, Pedro Porro played long down the line. Pape Matar Sarr, Spurs' third midfielder, stepped into attack alongside Richarlison, attracting attention from Ruben Dias who had been dragged out of position. John Stones tried to apply an offside trap, slipping in the process.

Gameweek three

Problems, particularly in defence, continued to grow as City lost to Brighton on 31 August.

City tweaked their press again. The wingers now pressed the centre-backs instead of the full-backs.

The left winger pressed Jan Paul van Hecke while left-back Ait-Nouri had to sprint long distances to reach Brighton's right-back Joel Veltman once Brighton progressed the ball.

A Rodri short of rhythm after injury returned but found himself on the same island Gonzalez did the week prior, disconnected from both defence and midfield, without a player to mark.

Brighton outnumbered City's defenders with their forward line, a damning indictment of the visitors' set-up.

A screengrab from City's loss to Brighton away this season showing the large distances their fullback had to cover when pressing the opposing fullback.

Brighton progress the ball from centre-back to central midfielder before finding their right full-back. This triggers City's left-back to run but the distances are too large to cover

Gameweek four

City responded with a 3-0 derby win over Manchester United on 14 September.

Reijnders started his fourth game in a row, this time alongside Phil Foden, both playing in front of Rodri. The pair would form a key partnership in the opening months.

Doku drifted inside from his left-wing position in build-up play, while Nico O'Reilly, starting at left-back for the first time that season, pinned Noussair Mazraoui back.

This worked remarkably well and Doku's narrow and roaming winger role became a key Guardiola weapon for the rest of the season.

It helped City create a four-man overload against United's midfield two and nudged Guardiola's men in the right direction.

A screengrab from City's home win against United this season showing Doku's in-field movement which provides City with a 4 against 2 overload in midfield.

Nico O'Reilly stands on the touchline, Jeremy Doku moves into midfield and City have an overload centrally

Gameweek six

City beat Burnley 5-1 on 27 September with Gonzalez, Foden and Reijnders in midfield. O'Reilly kept his place at left-back with Josko Gvardiol, Dias and Matheus Nunes making up the back four.

Guardiola was beginning to identify pieces he liked.

Doku and Haaland were mainstays in the front three now. The right-wing position, subject to change, was filled by Savinho.

Pep's thinking at this point was to deploy traditional wingers – Doku and Savinho, who could get to the byline with Foden and Reijnders expected to arrive into the box to help Haaland score goals.

City's full-backs could rotate out wide but generally tucked into midfield aiming to support attacks and protect City from counters.

Protection centrally and late runs into the box have been key principles for Guardiola throughout his career.

As the season progressed, Guardiola altered his instructions hoping to find the right combination of players to carry out these tasks. O'Reilly, the manager realised with time, was far more valuable as a scorer than a player who prevented counter-attacks.

A screengrab showing City's fullbacks in a supportive midfield role with the attacking midfielders arriving in the box as Doku has the ball in a dangerous position on the left wing.

Jeremy Doku gets to the byline as Phil Foden and Tijjani Reijnders (white) attack the box. Full-backs Nico O'Reilly and Matheus Nunes (yellow) support centrally

Gameweek nine

In City's 1-0 loss to Villa on 26 October, Guardiola started with a midfield of Silva, Reijnders and Foden and an attack of Savinho, Haaland and Bobb.

Villa were able to pass around City's high press and it was telling that Guardiola changed things in the 61st minute with a triple substitution.

Gonzalez, Doku and O'Reilly came on together, a nod to what Guardiola now knew mattered more than ever. Given the current state of the Premier League, embodied by an imposing Villa side, City's had learned a valuable lesson around the value of physicality.

Gameweeks 10 and 11

Guardiola outclassed Bournemouth 3-1 on 2 November and Doku again was given his free role in-field. O'Reilly and Doku were beginning to form an impressive and rotating partnership that Guardiola would rely on for the run-in.

Bournemouth pressed in a strict, aggressive man-to-man fashion and as they followed the winger into awkward positions, O'Reilly burst into the open space.

Cherki started on the right, moving in-field too. The Frenchman's influence gradually began to increase from this point on and in the small spaces, alongside Doku and Foden, Bournemouth struggled to find any reference against their fluidity.

With Andoni Iraola's men stepping up, City were able to find Haaland running in behind and won comfortably.

City persisted with this narrow front three against Liverpool on 9 November with the full-backs tracking Doku and Cherki into their own half before O'Reilly again showcased his dynamic running ability with Guardiola taking note of just how effective this was.

A screengrab from City's home win against Liverpool showing their narrow front three which opened up space for left back Nico O'Reilly to run down the left flank.

Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki were extremely narrow and given licence to roam against Liverpool on 9 November. This dragged the Liverpool full-backs inside and gave left-back Nico O'Reilly space to run into

Gameweeks 13 to 17

Guardiola began to experiment with Foden's role.

Concerns were growing over City's over-reliance on Haaland for goals, so the manager looked to get both Foden and Reijnders in attacking positions while retaining defensive balance. Before, Foden's role was more of an all-action box-to-box midfielder.

Silva paired Reijnders ahead of a duelling Gonzalez. Foden was played as a right winger allowed to move centrally with Doku mirroring him on the left.

This worked. Foden scored twice, including the winner, in a 3-2 victory over Leeds on 29 November.

Following Doku's injury in December, Foden's position change to a narrow winger became more permanent. Reijnders crashed the box to score against West Ham with Silva providing cover, with Haaland picking up two in City's 3-0 win on 20 December.

Screengrab from City's winner against Leeds in which Foden, starting as a right winger cuts inside and shoots from the centre of the box.

Having cut inside from the right, Phil Foden was able to score City's winner against Leeds

Gameweeks 21 to 24

The new year brought changes.

City signed Marc Guehi and Antoine Semenyo, with Guardiola quickly trusting the latter. With Doku, Marmoush, Cherki and Semenyo competing for wing spots, Foden was moved back into midfield, tasked with scoring and assisting.

With Bernardo Silva now undroppable as the box-to-box midfielder, the two positions that had suited Foden were occupied. The Englishman's minutes began to dwindle.

City were struggling to put away their chances and with no wins in four consecutive league games, Guardiola shook things up by looking for security in midfield and goals from the attackers, rather than midfielders.

Gameweeks 25 to 30

With his main out-and-out winger Doku missing much of February and March, Guardiola needed another solution.

He leaned into wingers that played more like strikers, using Marmoush or Semenyo alongside Haaland – sometimes in a front two. Defenders focused on Haaland, leaving spaces for others.

In a pivotal 2-1 win at Anfield on 8 February, City used a narrow front three of Marmoush, Haaland and Semenyo with a physical midfield trio of O'Reilly, Silva and Rodri behind them.

In their 3-0 win against Fulham on 11 February, O'Reilly kept his midfield position as Guardiola realised the value of both his scoring and his physical defending here. O'Reilly's ability to do both reduced the need for Reijnders in midfield whose minutes began to dry up too.

Screengrab from City's away win at Liverpool, showing City playing with three narrow strikers.

City's physical midfield three support the narrow front three of City consisting of Omar Marmoush, Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo

City's current system

Guardiola finally landed on arguably his best system in the 2-0 Carabao Cup final win against Arsenal on 22 March.

Cherki stood out in a 2-1 Champions League last-16 second-leg loss against Real Madrid on 17 March as City aimed to overturn a 3-0 deficit. The extent of the deficit probably contributed to Guardiola opting to reintroduce the Frenchman into the side - a lucky decision in retrospect.

Doku's return to fitness and Semenyo's output kept them in the team either side of him.

Behind them sat Silva and Rodri. O'Reilly and Nunes played at full-back, and Abdukodir Khusanov was a mainstay in defence following Gvardiol and Dias' injuries.

The pieces had clicked.

A screengrab from City's Carabao Cup win against Arsenal showing their new 4-2-4 defensive shape.

City's new 4-2-4 shape provides defensive solidity and gets Cherki, Doku and Semenyo attacking in a balanced fashion

Guardiola's greatest strength

Looking back, clues to this final system had been there all season.

Doku's one-against-one threat on the left had required teams to double up on him since August. O'Reilly's runs began to bear fruit as early as September.

Silva's intelligent pressing and build-up helped mitigate City's areas of weakness from November onwards.

Haaland and Semenyo moving in-field as Nunes pushed up to provide width, supplied by the two-footed Cherki, gave City solutions teams were unable to prepare for.

Behind them, Khusanov's pace provided City with a get-out-of-jail-free card when they held their high line.

Their press evolved too. Guardiola tried several versions through the year before settling on one where the wingers pressed centre-backs while blocking passes wide, with Haaland and Cherki blocking the middle of the pitch. Those roles suited the more physical wingers and protected the less defensive Haaland and Cherki.

City were compact and Silva and Rodri swept up any second balls too.

A common myth in football is that "playing like Guardiola" is creating a side that looks like Barcelona did in 2009.

Guardiola has admitted that he wins because of the players he has, which is partly down to City's ability to spend big.

His ability to continually reinvent his squads in response to the players he has available and the tactical trends of the league, however, remains second to none. (BBC)

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