The 11th National Assembly is likely to experience significant turnover, with many incumbent Senators and House of Representatives members not returning after the 2027 general elections. A Sunday Telegraph investigation showed that 13 out of the 106 serving Senators have already opted out of re-election, choosing instead to pursue governorship seats in their respective states.

The Senators, who have opted out include three from Kwara State: Saliu Mustapha (Central), Suleiman Umar Sadiq (North), and Lola Ashiru (South). Others are Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (Ogun West), Adetokunbo Abiru (Lagos East), Ahmad Lawan (Yobe North), Tahir Monguno and Kaka Shehu Lawan (Borno State), Sarafadeen Alli and Abdulfatah Buhari (Oyo State); Aliyu Wadada Ahmed (Nasarawa West), and Buba Umar Shehu (Bauchi South).

Also, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim (Ondo South) has opted out, having been appointed as Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations. This brings the total number of Senators who have opted out to 14. Many of the remaining Senators may face challenges securing re-election, particularly those who have defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The party is reportedly not guaranteeing automatic tickets. Others who may not return include: Ireti Kingibe (FCT), Lawal Adamu Usman (Kaduna Central), Khalid Mustapha (Kaduna North), Gbenga Daniel (Ogun East), Kelvin Chukwu (Enugu East), Abba Moro (Benue South), Emmanuel Udende (Benue North East), Titus Zam (Benue North West), Ned Nwoko (Delta North), and Peter Ndalikali (Niger South).

The high turnover is attributed to various factors, including electoral vulnerabilities, manipulation of polling unit results, and institutional weaknesses in Nigeria’s electoral framework. The All Progressives Congress (APC) and other parties may consider automatic tickets for candidates in Nasarawa North, Enugu North, Rivers South East, and Ondo South Senatorial Districts, where bye elections are scheduled due to vacant seats.

In the lower chamber, the story is no less different as only 100 members were reelected in 2023. Since 1999, only Hon. Nicholas Mutu of Bomadi/ Patani Federal Constituency of Delta State has remained remains in the House. Below are lawmakers who have served two-or-more terms and the political dynamics shaping their return bids in 2027.

Longest-serving and high profile ranking members

Hon. Nicholas Mutu of Bomadi/Patani, Delta, who has served from 1999–date He is the longest-serving lawmaker in the House and has never lost an election since 1999. He recently defected from the PDP to the APC alongside his governor, after winning seven times on PDP’s platform. Said to be very popular in his constituency, indications are that he will contest for an eighth term in 2027.

Hon. Garba Alhassan Ado Doguwa | Doguwa/Tudun Wada, Kano. First elected in 1992 under the aborted Third Republic, he returned in 2007 and has been re-elected since. He is a former majority leader. He is likely to contest again in 2027. With Governor Abba Yusuf’s defection to APC, Doguwa’s chances “have been strengthened.”

Hon. Tajudeen Abbas, the speaker, who represents Zaria in Kaduna has been in the House of Reps since 2011. He first came in on the CPC platform, then APC. He holds the record as the only person re-elected from his constituency. He emerged as a speaker in 2023 with 353 of 359 votes, defeating Ahmed Idris Wase and Aminu Sani Jaji.

If he re-contests in 2027, “his victory would be a landslide because he has significantly impacted his constituency.” If re-elected speaker in 2027, he would be the first to break that jinx since 1999. Hon. Ahmed Idris Wase from Wase, Plateau State has been in the House since 2007. He was Deputy Speaker from 2019-2023.

He contested for Speaker in 2023 but polled only 3 votes to Abbas’ 353. Those close to him said Wase is still interested in the office of Speaker and would like to come back to the House and try his luck again. Also, Hon. Aliyu Betara representing Biu/Bayo/Shani/ Kwaya Kusar, Borno has been around since 2007.

He was the Chairman, Appropriations in 9th Assembly and now chairs FCT Committee. He was a leading speakership candidate in 2023 until the APC zoning knocked him out. Betara is said to be popular among his people. Others are Hon. Julius Ihonvbere of Owan in Edo, who is Majority Leader. He is a thirdtimer in the House.

Also, there is Hon. Kingsley Chinda of Obio/Akpor in Rivers and the Minority Leader. He has been in the house from 2011 to date. A strong ally of FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, there are indications that he may run for the governorship in Rivers as there are unconfirmed media reports that Wike wants to replace him with his son.

Other long serving House members include Hon. Aminu Sani Jaji, Kaura-Namoda/Birnin Magaji, Zamfara (2015–date) He missed in 2019 due to the APC crisis that barred Zamfara candidates. He was returned in 2023, ran for speaker, got 3 votes. He chairs the Ecological Fund Committee. Hon. Oluwole Oke from Obokun/Oriade, Osun State, was first elected in 1999.

He lost in 2011 and returned in 2015. A former Defence Committee chair, he recently defected from PDP to APC. Currently he is the Director General ’f the APC Gubernatorial Candidate in Osun. Hon. Frederick Agbedi of Sagbama/Ekeremor, Bayelsa has been in the House since 2015.

A grassroots politician and one of the founding fathers of Bayelsa, he won 2015, 2019, 2023. The formation of the NDC by Sen. Seriake Dickson and Gov. Diri Duoye’s defection to APC, make the political climate in Bayelsa no longer predictable, and some new entrants into the game may spring surprises.

Hon. Victor Ogene from Ogbaru, Anambra was elected in 2011, failed in 2015, and returned to the Labour Party in 2023. He is the only ranking lawmaker from Anambra. He was deputy chairman, Media and Public Affairs under Hon. Aminu Tambuwal. But the political environment in Anambra today is very complicated with Gov. Charles Soludo winning a second term and APGA “in sync” with APC.

Ogene has left LP for ADC. There is also Hon. Kwamoti Laori (Demsa/Numan/ Lamurde, Adamawa), who has been around from 2015 to date. His election was voided in 2015 by tribunal but he won again in 2019 and 2023. Also, Hon. Dickson Tarkighir (Makurdi/Guma) Benue entered in 2015, lost 2019 after defecting from APC to PDP. He came back in 2023.

Others are Hon. Boma Goodhead (Asari-Toru, Rivers) 2015 date She is the younger sister of Chief Asari Dokubo and a staunch supporter of Gov. Siminilayi Fubara. It is difficult to guess whether Boma would return to the House in 2027 because the political crisis in Rivers even though it appears she will seek reelection.

Other long serving members are Hon. Yusuf Gagdi (Kanke/Pankshin/Kanam Plateau)2019–date; Hon. Abdussamad Dasuki (Kebbe/ Tambuwal, Sokoto) 2015 to date. He lost in 2019 and returned in 2023. He recently announced that he will not be recontesting elections again, citing the need to give younger ones a chance.

Hon. Stanley Olajide (Ibadan Northwest/Southwest, Oyo) 2019 to date; Hon. Bless ing Onuh (Otukpo/Ohimini, Benue). She is the daughter of Sen. David Mark. She won in 2019 on APGA after losing PDP primaries, defected to APC in 2021, re-elected in 2023; Hon. Unyime Idem (Oruk Anam/ Ukanafun, Akwa Ibom) 2019 to date. He is the chair of the public Procurement Committee.

Also on the list is Hon. Benjamin Kalu( Bende, Abia), who is the Deputy Speaker and has been around from 2019 to date. He may not come back to the House in 2027, as he is likely to contest for the Abia state governorship election.

High Ranking Members

Other notable ranking members are Hon. Solomon Bob (Abua/Odual/Ahoada East, Rivers) from 2019 to date. He is a close confidant of Wike. Hon. Zakaria Dauda Nyampa,(Michika/Madagali, Adamawa) from 2019 to date; Hon. Hassan Fulata | (Birniwa/Guri/Kirikasamma, Jigawa) from 2015 to date: Other ranking members, who have served two or more terms, including:

Hon. Odudoh Uduak Alphonsus, Aliyu Aminu Garu, Kabiru Yusuf Alhaji, Manu Soro Mansur, Adamu Ibrahim Gamawa, Sani Ibrahim Tanko, Rabilu Bala, Auwalu Adu Gwalabe, Aliyu Bappa Misau, Hashimu Adamu, Dabo Ismaila Haruna, Muhammed Dan Abba Shehu, Zainab Gimba, Usman Jaha,

Bukar Mohammed, Ahmed Satomi, Usman Zannah, Bukar Gana, Abdulkadir Rahis, Bukar Talba, Alex Egbona, Abang Victor Bisong, Akika Bassey Ekpenyong, Michael Etaba, Julius Pondi, Victor Nwokolo, Francis Waive, Thomas Ereyitomi, Enwo Iduma Igariwey, Joseph Nwobasi, Peter Akpatason, Fatoba Steve Olusola, Richard Bamisele, Francis Omoleye, Akinlayo Kolawole, Nnaji Nnolim,

Bello Usman Kumo, Isa Ali J.C., Abdullahi El-Rasheed, Bauchi Yaya Tongo, Obed Paul Shehu, Miriam Odinaka Onuoha, Sani Nazif, Muktar Muhammad, Ibrahim Usman Auyo, Yusuf Saidu Miga, Abubakar Makki Yalleman, Saad Wada Taura, Amos Magaji, Aliyu Mustapha Abdullahi, Yusuf Bashir, Ahmed Mohammed Munir, Abdulmuminu Jibril, Abubakar Kabir Abubakar Bichi, Aliyu Sani Madaki, Sani Abdullahi Rogo,

Datti Yusuf Umar, Adamu Sani, Alhassan Kabiru Rurum, Ahmad Badau Yusuf, Ibrahim Hamisu, Abdulkadir Jobe, Yusuf Rabiu, Umar Mukhtar Zakari, Bala Sani Umar, Abdulhakeem Kamilu Ado, Sada Soli, Nazif Bello Yusuf, Ahmed Aliyu Abdullahi, Sani Lawal, Bello Kaoje, Ibrahim Mohammed, Ibrahim Tukura Kabir, Garba Koko Salisu, Awaji Iniombek Abiante, Cyril Hart, Uche Nwaeke, Boniface Emerengwa, Kelechi Nwogu,

Robinson Dekor, Igbiks Anderson, Manuchim Umezuruike, Blessing Amadi, Nabunkari Saadu Mohammed, Shehu Nasiru, Usman Basiru, Isah Bello Ambura, Danbuga Abdulkadir Jelani, Kalambaina Abdullahi, Hassan Bala Abubakar, Yakubu Sani Alhaji, Aliyu Ibrahim Almustapha, Yusuf Umar Yabo, Leke Abejide, Ali Abdullahi Ibrahim, Mohammed Omar Bio, Saba Ahmed Adams, Olawuyi Raheem Tunji, Tijani Kayode Ismail, Aluko Ahmed Yinka, Muktar Shagaya, Raji Olawale, Whinghan Sesi Oluwaseun,

Hammed Adewale Waheed, Ayube Ganiyu Adele, James Faleke, Babajimi Benson, Kalifat Ogbara, Basiru Dawodu, Oshun Moshood, Fayinka Moses Oluwatoyin, Aliu Ademola Kuye, Jonathan Gaza, Hassan Abubakar Nalaraba, Dahiru Abubakar Sarki, Sidu Musa Abdullahi, Mamudi Abdullahi, Shehu Saleh Rijau, Abdullahi Garba, Tanko Adamu, Olumide Osoba, Adegboyega Isiaka,

Ayokunle Isiaka, Abiodun Isaq Akinlade, Bamidele Salam, Oladebo Lanre Omoleye, Adewale Moruf Adebayo, Alabi Akinola, Akinremi Olaide Adewale, Adeyemi Akeem Adeniyi, Adigun Abbas Adekunle, Sunday Makanjuola, Tolulope Akande-Sadipe, Abisodun Kareem, Musa Agah, Ali Lawan Shettima, Hadijat Bukar AbbaIbrahim, Mohammed Isa Anka, Amadu Kabiru and Hassan Bello Shinkafi.

While many long-serving members remain popular in their constituencies, party defections, state-level crises, governorship ambitions and new political alignments are set to make 2027 a decisive test for House veterans. The outcome of the 2027 elections remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: many incumbent Senators and members in the House of Representatives are facing significant challenges in their bid for re-election. (Sunday Telegraph)

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