By UZOMA AHAMEFULE

If Peter Obi emerges as the presidential candidate for the ADC, the battle for Aso Rock in 2027 will be fundamentally altered, with up to 50 per cent of the advantage slipping from President Bola Tinubu’s grasp.

In light of the weight of existing evidence when subjected to objective analysis, the prospect of Tinubu winning a free, fair and credible presidential election in 2027 is exceedingly unlikely

If former Vice President Atiku Abubakar were to become the ADC’s presidential candidate, the passionate, citizen-driven momentum currently building nationwide fuelled by “Obidient” volunteers willing to invest their own resources without expectation, would significantly wane. This would mark a departure from the Labour Party phenomenon of 2023. This erosion of enthusiasm would diminish the ADC’s competitive advantage against the ruling APC and effectively strengthen Tinubu's position.

History is a cold sovereign, indifferent to the pleas of the powerful and the pride of the partisan. It has no allies to protect or enemies to spite. It moves only by the relentless engine of facts that remain immune to influence because it lacks the human capacity for favouritism. One must acknowledge this reality of history, and accept the stark choice or be consumed by its weight.

Terrorists and bandits have continued to issue threats, maim and kill, expand their territories and collect taxes in a sovereign land. How long will Nigerians continue to live in this state of fear and hopelessness?

In retrospect, the strategic misstep of the PDP in 2023 was the foundational tragedy that precipitated today’s systemic collapse and the current national catastrophe. History teaches us that repeating the same mistakes without reform is a recipe for stagnation. Persisting in the same failed patterns year after year yet expecting a different outcome defies political logic and the basic tenets of human progress.

OBI

ADC members must understand this clearly, put their feelings aside, and face reality. Peter Obi is the one beacon of hope for those seeking an alternative to the current situation, and overlooking his potential would lead to certain defeat. Nigerians cannot afford another era of political vanity and must unite behind the most acceptable option, or face the harsh consequences of their own irrelevance – a tragedy of choice, not fate.

History will not be kind to the ADC if it repeats the same mistake as the PDP in 2023. That decision has now been etched into history as a profound mistake. It serves as a reminder that when political structures ignore the will of the people, the resulting stagnation is a burden shared by all citizens. History beckons, 2027 offers another chance for Nigerians to change this narrative that has long been defined by lamentation and regret. If Peter Obi were to secure the ADC presidential nomination for 2027, it would instantly shift the political landscape, stripping the APC of half its incumbency advantage before a single vote has been cast.

“Based on verifiable evidence and objective analysis, in a free, fair and credible election President Tinubu would not win the 2027 presidential election.”

However, for the ADC and Obi, the real challenge will be not just winning the votes and hearts of Nigerians, but also standing resolute against thuggery and manipulation to ensure the will of the people is respected. Appeal to the hearts of Nigerians is only half of the competitive process. The rest involves confronting electoral fraud, battling the weaponisation of state apparatus, stopping ballot snatching and result swapping, preventing the use of fake security forces, stopping the mutilation of result sheets and ensuring that manufactured data intended to override the public will is not announced. None of these issues can be solved with manifestos and good speeches alone. Without achieving total victory over these forces, the pain of the Nigerian people will only be amplified for another four years.

ATIKU

In 2003, Atiku Abubakar’s influence in Nigerian politics was considered so significant that President Obasanjo was said to have personally appealed to him for support in his bid for a second term. As was widely reported at the time, had Atiku chosen to contest the PDP presidential primary, many believed that he had the necessary political machinery and delegate loyalty to defeat Obasanjo. In spite of that, he decided against it in the belief that Obasanjo would support his presidential bid after his second term. However, the middle of Obasanjo’s second term was marred by political turmoil surrounding the allegedly unsuccessful “Third Term” agenda.

Whatever may have happened, Obasanjo had his reasons for not supporting Atiku's bid for the Nigerian presidency in 2007. Atiku felt betrayed because Obasanjo did not reciprocate his support when the opportunity arose. To this day, the two men are political enemies.

Atiku, Nigeria’s former Vice President still remains one of the most formidable figures in the country’s political landscape. Despite pursuing the highest office in the land on several occasions, the presidency has frustratingly continued to elude him. It is difficult to ascertain whether this persistent outcome reflects a cruel twist of fate, misaligned political timing, or the complex dynamics of power itself. The reason remains open to interpretations.

In keeping with the timeless maxim, one must give to Caesar what is rightfully his. Atiku is a very strong political opponent. His wealth of experience and loyal supporters have long established him as a formidable force, and a challenger of undeniable weight. However, despite his stature, the current momentum has eclipsed the viability of his candidacy. At this stage, any attempt he makes to emerge as the ADC flag bearer would be a trial-and-error gamble. Instead, party members should see themselves as engaged in a national rescue mission with Obi at the forefront, while encouraging Atiku to play the role of a statesmanlike kingmaker in support of his candidacy. Ultimately, they would all be winners. A holistic assessment suggests that any deviation would risk plunging the country into yet another collective disaster.

If this advice is not followed and Atiku secures the ADC’s presidential nomination, the fervent grassroots support that the “Obidient Movement” has organically mobilised across Nigeria – characterised by personal sacrifice and self-funding, as was evident during the Labour Party's surge in popularity in 2023 – would likely dissipate. Such a decline would prove disadvantageous against an entrenched ruling party like the APC, and his emergence could ultimately strengthen the position of the APC and Tinubu.

TINUBU

ADC members have accused the APC of orchestrating moves to exclude them from the electoral process in 2027. Despite a wave of gubernatorial defections to the APC, anxiety within the party about the ADC's involvement in the 2027 presidential race remains persistent.

Some political pundits and opposition figures have criticized the governors who defected to the APC, citing underperformance in office. Available evidence suggests that these defections are less an endorsement of the party’s achievements and more a reflection of self-interest and political expediency. Many of these governors now appear primarily focused on securing second terms or positioning themselves for Senate seats as their tenures draw to a close. Because they performed poorly, they lack the confidence in their ability to win in a credible electoral process, thus they seek refuge in APC. Their calculation is clear, by supporting President Tinubu they erroneously believe that they can leverage access to federal power to secure their ambitions, disregarding the democratic will of Nigerians in the process.

Mounting developments have left Nigerians increasingly frustrated and dissatisfied with the APC administration's failure to honour its electoral pledges. Based on verifiable evidence and objective analysis, in a free, fair and credible election President Tinubu would not win the 2027 presidential election.

President Tinubu promised Nigerians a steady supply of electricity, and said that if he failed to deliver on this promise during his first term, Nigerians should not vote for him again. He removed the fuel subsidy, which caused great hardship, but Nigerians never saw the impact of its removal or where the money went. He has continued to borrow money, resulting in Nigeria's foreign debt reaching embarrassing levels, and there have been no visible achievements commensurate with the amount borrowed.

In terms of security, Nigeria is currently experiencing its worst period. Presently, some villages in Kwara State have been forced to flee their ancestral homes due to terrorist and bandit activities. Many states in the northern part have been in similar or worse situation since the time of the late Buhari administration. The news from other parts of the country is not pleasant. Terrorists and bandits have continued to issue threats, maim and kill, expand their territories and collect taxes in a sovereign land. How long will Nigerians continue to live in this state of fear and hopelessness?

In this glaring evidence, how can anyone with integrity and honour start campaigning for a vote for the APC and President Tinubu in the name of connecting to the centre? Most people have indeed sold their conscience for money and recognitions.

CONCLUSION

If you sell your dog and buy a monkey, you still have something that squats in your house.

If Obi is not the flag bearer of the ADC for the 2027 presidential election, then President Tinubu's inauguration in May 2027 will be guaranteed with little difficulty.

Please note this warning, if Obi, Atiku, Kwakwanso or Amaechi etc. were to leave the ADC at this critical moment for whatever reason, none of them would become Nigeria’s president in 2027, regardless of the party they join. This is because, in effect, they would have inadvertently paved the way for President Tinubu. Consequently, what the opposition requires is not fragmentation, but cohesion. This is non-negotiable in the face of formidable power, since the ultimate battle is not just to secure votes, but also to protect them from manipulation and electoral malpractice. Imperatively, they must remain united, drawing on experience and exercising wisdom to balance disagreement with consensus. Sound judgement is essential at every step – otherwise, the pursuit of 2027 will prove to be yet another illusion.

•Uzoma Ahamefule, a concerned patriotic citizen and a refined African traditionalist, writes from Vienna, Austria. uzomaah@yahoo.com +436607369050 (Please messages only)

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