The International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group warned Monday that fuel and fertilizer prices could remain elevated for an extended period even if normal shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume, citing supply chain damage and delays in restoring global commodity flows.

In a joint statement, the three institutions said the impact of the Middle East war is “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric,” disproportionately affecting energy importers, particularly low-income countries.

They said the shock has pushed up oil, gas and fertilizer prices, raising concerns over food security and job losses, while some producers in the region have also suffered sharp losses in export revenue.

The statement said shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet normalized and warned that even after flows resume, it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to recover to pre-conflict levels.

It added that shortages of critical inputs caused by supply disruptions could spill over into energy, food and other sectors, while forced displacement, weaker employment, and reduced travel and tourism may also take time to reverse.

“Today, we shared our latest assessments, ahead of the release this Tuesday, April 14, of the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report and IMF’s World Economic Outlook. We also discussed the situations of the countries most affected by the shock as well as the responses by our institutions,” the statement said.

“Our teams are working closely, including at country level, to leverage our respective expertise and help countries through tailored policy advice and, in the case of the IMF and World Bank, financial support where needed.”

The institutions said they would continue coordinating support for member countries and monitoring the fallout from the war on energy markets and the global economy.

“We will continue to monitor closely and assess the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy and individual countries, and to coordinate our response and support to our member countries—working with, and drawing on, other international organizations’ expertise as needed to lay the foundations for a resilient recovery that delivers stability, growth and jobs,” the statement added. (AA)

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