When Adebayo Adelabu took office as Nigeria’s Minister of Power in August 2023, he promised that the country would reach 6,000 megawatts of electricity generation by the end of that year.

He had assured Nigerians that the lights would come on. Nigerians, used to broken promises from a sector that has disappointed every administration for decades, waited.

They are still waiting as the current electricity supply is just 3,331MW, according to data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator. This is barely enough to power a city the size of Lagos, much less a nation with over 200 million people.

This shortfall has left households struggling in extreme heat and businesses losing money. The World Bank estimates that power outages cost Nigeria about $29 billion each year, roughly 10 per cent of gross domestic product.

During an oversight visit by the Senate Committee on Power, led by Senator Eyinnaya Abaribe, Adelabu stated that the federal government had finalised plans to boost generation to 6,000 MW by the end of 2024.

He repeatedly expressed his ministry’s commitment to meet this target by December 2024. It did not happen.

The peak generation on December 28, 2024, reached 5,229 MW. The highest peak ever recorded was 5,801.6 MW, still below the promised target.

Adelabu later acknowledged this failure, blaming it on vandalism that affected critical power transmission equipment.

“Indeed, a promise of 6,000 megawatts was made, and we believed it was achievable based on our efforts. Unfortunately, the actions of vandals set us back. We are working hard to ensure more supply to the grid,” Bolaji Tunji, the Special Adviser on Strategic Communication and Media Relations to the minister, said on December 29, 2024.

The target was pushed to 2025. On March 2, 2025, Nigeria hit a peak generation of 6,003 MW, the highest in the country’s history. The minister’s communications team announced this with great excitement.

Tunji said Nigeria also achieved a peak generation evacuation of 5,801.84 MW and a daily maximum energy output of 128,370.75 megawatt-hours.

“On March 2, 2025, Nigeria achieved a record available power generation of 6,003 megawatts, the highest in the nation’s history,” he announced.

Sadly, the country could not maintain this small accomplishment. Power generation capacity has since dropped to below 5,500 MW. The celebration was short-lived.

Subsequent data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator and other agencies showed that generation has hovered around 5,000 MW since then.

By the time the third deadline arrived, a general 2025 target, electricity supply from the national grid to distribution companies was 3,331 MW. The Nigerian Integrated System Operator and electricity distribution companies blamed gas shortages as generation fluctuated between 2,000 and 3,900 MW.

This year, power distribution companies have repeatedly apologised to their customers, promising relief that has not arrived.

“I want to apologise to Nigerians, officially now, as the minister of power, for this temporary issue that is causing hardship, especially during this dry season when there is so much heat everywhere,” Adelabu said two weeks ago at a press conference in Abuja.

“Businesses are being impacted, schools have been affected, and industries are suffering. We don’t want to be in this situation, but it is caused by factors beyond our control.”

The minister assured Nigerians that relief was on the way, giving a two-week timeline for an improvement in supply.

“I can tell you, with the committee we have set up and commitments from gas suppliers, plus the timeline for the repair of the gas pipelines, we should start seeing improvements in supply in two weeks. Two weeks!” Adelabu emphasised.

However, as the two-week timeline passed, manufacturers, retailers, and small businesses surveyed by BusinessDay reported that the burden of self-generation continues to eat into their profits and stifle growth.

Gas-fired plants, which provide most of Nigeria’s electricity, often run below capacity due to supply issues and pricing disputes.

At the same time, the transmission network lacks the strength needed to handle higher loads, causing frequent grid failures and forced output reductions.

Distribution companies struggle with money issues and infrastructure gaps, further weakening the whole system. This creates a cycle where gains in one area are offset by failures in others.

For consumers, the effects are immediate and real. In major cities, long outages have become normal. Households now spend a larger portion of their income on alternative energy sources. In rural areas, access to grid electricity is still limited, widening the gap in economic opportunities.

Businesses face even higher costs. Manufacturers, in particular, point to unreliable power as a major obstacle, often using generators for long hours to keep production going. This extra cost has driven up prices and hurt competitiveness both at home and abroad.

The government has proposed a series of reforms aimed at tackling these issues, including efforts to attract private investment, improve pricing structures, and enhance regulatory oversight. Yet progress has been uneven, and investor confidence remains weak. (BusinessDay)

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