A fragile ceasefire that’s mostly quieted the skies over the Middle East isn’t giving shippers the nerve to brave the narrow waterway that holds the key to 20% of the world’s oil supply.

The Strait of Hormuz may be officially re-opening for business, but shipping company executives and analysts told CNN uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire is still making transit too risky right now. Explicit approval and safety assurances from Iran, clear guidance on how and when to transit and a long-term view of the strait’s future are all so far missing, shippers told CNN.

Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth-largest shipping company in the world, has six container ships trapped in the strait, but it’s keeping them put for now.

“Our top priority is the safety of our employees on land and on sea. Based on our current risk assessment we are refraining from transiting the strait,” spokesman Nils Haupt said.

Word of a two-week ceasefire sent oil plunging and stocks soaring on Wednesday, a reflection of the strait’s importance to global commerce. That rally has given way to a reality check: Despite repeated assurances from President Donald Trump that the strait is open, only a few ships have made the journey in recent days. Oil, after notching double-digit declines, is again flirting with $100 a barrel.

Indeed, Lale Akoner, a global market analyst at financial services company eToro, told CNN it could take six months to get ship traffic back to where it was before the war began. More than 100 cargo-carrying vessels moved through the 21-mile-wide waterway daily before the conflict, according to shipping-data provider Lloyd’s List. That means the economic consequences of the war – higher energy costs and their varied knock-on effects – are likely to well outlast the fighting.

Here’s why: Shippers are hesitant to trust a ceasefire that’s already been shaky, especially without direction on which ships can go when. Just two oil or gas tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire was announced, according to Kpler, a data intelligence and analytics platform. Over 400 tankers, 34 LPG tankers and 19 LNG vessels remained in the region as of Wednesday, according to MarineTraffic data.

And ships don’t just need to get out – they also need to get in, so that they can load up stored-up oil that’s been trapped on land for weeks.

“Vessel operators believe it’s not worth taking the risk,” said Joe McMonigle, president of think tank Global Center for Energy Analysis and who lives in Saudi Arabia. “People are going to be extremely cautious about going back to normal.”

‘Temporary and conditional’

While other critical goods like fertilizer flow through the straight, oil is the number one priority.

“The ceasefire removes the worst-case scenario, but it’s temporary and conditional,” said eToro’s Akoner.

Behind the scenes shipping companies are trying to figure out how to get their ships out of the Persian Gulf safely.

Shipping executives say they have “no information” on how to transit the strait during the ceasefire and are not in contact with Iranian authorities, according to Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, a global shipping logistics company.

Shipping experts say Iran is still in charge of the strait – and those authorities haven’t laid out a plan for safe passage yet.

Martín Izaguirre Salgado, a seafarer who has been stuck on board his company’s oil tanker in the Persian Gulf since late February, said as of Thursday, they were still stuck.Shippers want “explicit approval from the people that may do you harm,” said Ron Widdows, the former head of the World Shipping Council. “How that process works, who exactly is the body that’s got the authority to say, ‘Yeah, you can or not.,’”

Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon.

Getting out – and getting back in

Tankers that have been stuck in the strait for weeks aren’t the only issue.

“You also must have a willingness of empty tankers to come back in through the strait, refill and then go back out,” an oil industry source told CNN. “That whole process takes several days.”

Hapag-Lloyd, for example, has no vessels waiting to get into the waterway. “That would not make sense at all,” spokesman Haupt said.

Instead, shipping companies are “basically waiting until others test” passage, said Flexport’s Manders.

“Oil tankers and vessels of Chinese origin will likely test these waters first,” Manders said. (China is an Iranian ally.)

Iran is also now raising charging a new toll to get out of the strait.

“The IRGC has been charging ships up to $2 million per tanker to transit. Payment is accepted in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrencies, bypassing the dollar-based financial system and US sanctions,” said Manders.

Even Trump himself has floated the idea of a toll, suggesting the idea in an interview with ABC News’ Jon Karl Wednesday as part of a “joint venture” with Iran, whose civilization Trump threatened to end just a day earlier.

The strait’s future has real impacts on everyday Americans: Average gas prices are up 40%, about $1.18, per gallon since the start of the war, according to AAA. Getting gas prices back to the pre-war $3 a gallon level is still a long way off, even if oil begins to flow freely again.

“If this continues for another week or two, the consequences not just for energy prices but for the global economy are dire,” McMonigle said. “This is a very tenuous ceasefire.”

(CNN)

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