For weeks now, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been embroiled in a leadership crisis that, on the surface, appears to be a routine internal dispute. With a (former) Deputy National Chairman, Nafiu Bala Gombe as agent provocateur, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has unwittingly entered the fray in a manner that has put the current most consequential opposition platform in the country in administrative limbo at the most critical phase of the electoral cycle. By alluding to the Zamfara State APC gubernatorial misadventure of 2019, INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, SAN, does not help himself.

Respected legal practitioner Femi Falana, SAN, has accused INEC of conniving with the courts and senior lawyers to plot a situation in which only the incumbent president could be eligible to contest next year. “The INEC, headed by a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, issued a statement that based on the intervention of the court, ‘ADC, we shall no longer recognise you.’ And if a political party is not recognised, its members are not contesting election.” In making that assertion, Falana also recognised that there is no difference between the politicians in power and those now out to ‘rescue Nigeria’ from them. So, he made an important caveat: “We are making these analyses not because APC, PDP, ADC are better (than one another); they are birds of the same feather. But the Nigerian people must be allowed to choose among their oppressors who would govern them.”

That precisely is the point. At the bottom of the current shenanigans is a regrettable failure to cultivate a truly democratic culture. That is in itself no surprise. Most of our political actors are a mixed bag of operatives who have hardly succeeded in any other meaningful venture. It is then expected that this inchoate army of desperados will stop at nothing to game elections, regardless of the platform they now tout. In the end, the transactional ethos of our society has been allowed to overrun the national political leadership selection process and the way we are governed. But for the health of our democracy, those who superintend critical institutions, including the judiciary and INEC, must be circumspect lest they throw the nation into a serious crisis.

Let me state upfront that on this matter, I hold no brief for any political party. I also believe that INEC has a duty to act within the boundaries of the law. If the electoral commission’s reading of the recent Court of Appeal’s directive was made in good faith, we cannot fault that. But here is where the matter becomes troubling. The timing of INEC’s action comes just days before the ADC’s congresses that had been scheduled to begin today. And with its national convention slated for 14 April, INEC position creates a political effect that transcends any legal technicality. It effectively freezes the organisational machinery of the main opposition party ahead of the 2027 general election.

This must be concerning for every Nigerian, regardless of partisan affiliation. Even supporters of the All Progressives Congress (APC) ought to recognise that a governing party without serious opposition is one that is not accountable to the people. And without such accountability, the people are the real losers. Perhaps I should put it more bluntly: A ballot paper that offers only one serious option is not a choice. It is a formality. And when elections become formalities, the social contract between government and the people begins to unravel. Besides, when the game board is tilted beyond a certain angle, even the winners eventually fall. Let us not pretend about what is going on. There can be no credible election in 2027 without a credible opposition platform that provides an alternative choice to the Nigerian electorate.

President Bola Tinubu has publicly denied any intention to turn Nigeria into a one-party state. I take the President at his word. But democracies are not judged solely by the declarations of their leaders. They are judged by the conditions that critical institutions create. By needlessly putting itself in the middle of the ADC crisis, INEC has created doubts about its neutrality. And when the most visible opposition coalition is immobilised at a decisive political moment, the burden of proof shifts. It is therefore no longer sufficient to say there is no plan to suppress opposition. What is required is demonstrable action to ensure that the political space remains open, that institutions act with strict neutrality, and that the courts resolve political disputes without the paralysing side effect of removing an opposition platform from the electoral conversation.

I have seen enough of Nigerian political history to know that the deliberate weakening of opposition is never a strategy that serves anyone in the long run. Those who orchestrated the destruction of the old Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All-Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) in the early 2000s imagined that a dominant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would serve their interests forever. That cold calculation has blown up in their faces. Some of those people are now carrying their pot bellies all over the streets of Abuja to do ‘Aluta’ at INEC headquarters. But here is the lesson: Nigerians will always seek a vehicle for dissent. If you destroy the one they have, they will build another, or they will express their frustration through channels that no ballot box can contain.

Meanwhile, what we call opposition parties in Nigeria, as currently represented by the ADC and PDP, are not only weak and uncoordinated, but many of their leaders also seem highly compromised. But then, beyond occasional soundbites and empty slogans, there is nothing to differentiate between the existing political parties and that explains why members criss-cross from one to the other. Yet, the ability of the opposition to challenge the policies and programmes of the incumbent government is integral to representative democracy. However, we must also be honest about the opposition’s own failings. The big wigs who congregated in the ADC did not perform their due diligence before acquiring the platform from some smart political contractors.

When the coalition was announced in July 2025, many of us noted the inherent fragility of a platform built on the convergence of large egos and divergent ambitions. And the lack of seriousness is still very much evident. Many Nigerians are still waiting for the drama that is bound to come after the emergence of their presidential candidate whom some of us can easily predict. Therefore, the Nafiu Bala challenge, whatever its merits or motivations, has merely exploited vulnerabilities that are already present in the party’s hastily constructed architecture. If the ADC coalition is to survive, its principals must demonstrate that they can manage internal disagreement and work together after the predictable outcome of their primaries. But the greater challenge still lies with the current administration and the ruling APC.

History teaches us that the most dangerous threats to democracy arrive through the quiet accumulation of administrative decisions that collectively drain the oxygen from political competition. Nigeria has walked this road before. In the First Republic, the deliberate destruction of opposition in the Western Region helped set the stage for military intervention. It was not much different in the Second Republic. In the Third Republic, the annulment of June 12 election demonstrated what happens when political choices are voided by those who fear the outcome. The road to 2027 is therefore about far more than who wins the presidency. It is about whether Nigeria remains committed to the principle that power can be contested fairly, openly, and without fear.

On that score, we may sympathise with INEC, given the bad behaviour of the political class, made worse by our judicial environment. Increasingly, our elections are no longer determined through votes cast by citizens at polling units but by courtroom decisions. At a consultative meeting held with stakeholders in Lokoja on 12th November 2019, former INEC chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu lamented: “…I must admit that the plethora of court cases and conflicting judgements delivered on the eve of elections in Nigeria are stressful to the commission and costly to the nation.”

The current crisis may yet find resolution. The courts may untangle the competing claims, and the ADC may regain its organisational footing. But the alarm has already been raised, and it would be reckless to ignore it. This issue goes beyond partisanship. When the opposition is stifled, it is not just one party that loses, it is the entire country that pays the price. For, in the end, a democracy without choice is no democracy at all. It is the architecture of one, with the soul removed.

Therefore, the immediate priority is clear. INEC must find a path that resolves its legal obligations without creating a situation where no credible opposition party can contest the presidential election next year. The courts must act with urgency on substantive suits involving the internal affairs of political parties, recognising that the clock of the electoral calendar waits for no one. And the ruling APC, if it truly believes in democratic competition as it claims, should resist the temptation to fish in the troubled waters of opposition dysfunction. They must understand that what is won without contest is won without legitimacy. And what is held without legitimacy is held on borrowed time. A word, as the old saying goes, is enough for the wise.

The ‘Strait of Hormuz’ in Nigeria

Last Sunday, I received a rather interesting prayerful message that is uniquely Nigerian: “On this Easter morning, may the ‘Strait of Hormuz’ in your life be declared open and remain permanently open.” I stared at my phone for a full minute, caught between amusement and admiration. Only in our country can a geopolitical chokepoint between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula become a prayer point. We are, without question, the most creatively prayerful people on earth. Give us any crisis, a shipping lane blockade, currency float, fuel queue, and we will fashion from it a night vigil declaration.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz should concern us beyond the comedy. The current tensions around that narrow waterway are, in very large measure, a product of President Donald Trump’s own making. When you tear up a nuclear agreement, impose maximum pressure sanctions, and then act surprised when Iran threatens to shut down the channel through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil transits daily, you have manufactured a crisis. Trump picked a fight, escalated it, and now wants sympathy because the consequences showed up on schedule.

That, unfortunately, is a pattern we know all too well in Nigeria. We are world-class architects of our own misfortunes. And when anyone points out the obvious that we created the very problems we are crying about, the national reflex is not reflection. It is denial. Or deflection. Or, better still, another prayer point. So, the next time someone sends you a prayer message built around the latest local or international crisis, please have a good laugh. But after you laugh, ask yourself pertinent questions: what are the ‘Straits of Hormuz’ that we, as a nation, have blocked with our own hands? And are we willing to do the difficult, unglamorous, entirely unspiritual work of unblocking them?

I do not mock prayers. I am a person of faith myself. But faith without works, as the scriptures remind us, is dead. You cannot block your own strait, through corruption, incompetence, and sheer refusal to plan, and then ask God to open it. Even the Almighty expects us to at least stop drilling holes in our own boat before we cry out for rescue.

• You can follow me on my X (formerly Twitter) handle, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com

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