The release of the 2027 election timetable by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has thrown the nation’s political landscape into a state of frenzy as all the political gladiators begin to assert their influence with a view to determining the players that will be on the field come 2027. In this report, SUYI AYODELE, REGIONAL EDITOR, SOUTH-SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST, with reports from MOSES IDAHOSA, ALPHONSUS AGBOR, OLAWALE SANUSI, and JOSEPH ABASI-ABASI, examines the intrigues playing out in each of the South-South States ahead of the 2027 election.

A plethora of political activities would guide the march towards the 2027 election in the six South-South states. While four of the states will participate in the February 6, 2027, governorship election, two others will be taking part in off-season governorship polls. Bayelsa and Edo are the states where the governorship election would hold much later than February 2027, while elections in Delta, Rivers, Akwa-Ibom, and Cross River would hold alongside the other states during the general election.

Power Play Permutations, realignments in Edo

Critical permutations, strategic alignments, and realignment, as well as quiet power plays, are already defining the emerging contest in Edo State. At the heart of these developments is the Edo South Senatorial District, where early indicators suggest a fiercely competitive race driven by ambition, loyalty, financial muscle, and the enduring influence of political power brokers.

If there is any district to watch in the state, it is Edo South, which, from all indications, has become rudderless as the political class in the zone behaves like members of an acephalous society – a society without a clear-cut leader.

While it is not all bed of roses in the two other senatorial districts of Edo Central and Edo North, the lack of a go-to individual who can hold the seven monolithic local government areas of Edo South Senatorial District together appears the greatest hubris of the zone and accounts for the apparent haphazard drifts in its politics.

For instance, the contest for the House of Representatives ticket in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), in Oredo Federal Constituency, is rapidly assuming the character of a high-stakes political showdown. Leading the pack are former Oredo Local Government Chairman, Osaro Obazee; former Commissioner for Education, Dr. Paddy Iyamu; and the incumbent lawmaker, Eseosa Iyawe. Party dynamics are further complicated by the delicate balancing act among key stakeholders. While many leaders are said to favour Obazee’s consistency, there is noticeable hesitation in opposing what is widely interpreted as the governor’s preference for Iyamu.

In Ovia South-West/Ovia North-East Federal Constituency, the possible return of Omosede Igbinedion, the daughter of the Benin billionaire and Palace Chief, the Esama of Benin Kingdom, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, has also stirred conversations. Leveraging her political pedigree and previous legislative experience, she remains a formidable figure, particularly given the enduring influence of her family name across Ovia and Benin City.

Aside from the APC, the scenario within the opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Labour Party (LP), is expected to recalibrate their strategies. However, early signs point to a lack of cohesion, especially within the PDP and LP, where internal divisions and limited declarations of interest could undermine their competitiveness. Investigations revealed that the ADC has introduced another political discourse such that if the APC had ever had the faintest notion that it would have a smooth sail, the party must go back to the drawing board. A notable political wildcard in the Edo politics is Hon. Matthew Iduoriyekemwen, a seasoned grassroots politician.

In the contest for the Edo South senatorial seat, it appears that the APC appears to have settled for the former federal lawmaker, Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama. He may, however, face opposition from the likes of incumbent Senator Neda Imasuen, the two-term Senator Matthew Urhoghide, and former federal lawmaker Ehiozuwa Agbonayinma. There is also Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, a seasoned political figure. However, Ogbeide-Ihama’s strong backing from the grassroots and the topmost echelons of the party may see him through.

For Edo Central, another monolithic district, the presence of Governor Okpebholo is a factor that has proven to be in favour of the district. Divided traditionally into Agbazilo and Okpebho clans, Edo Central has maintained a striking balance in the distribution of political positions in the district. The PDP had dominated the area under former Governor Godwin Obaseki, but when the party fielded Senator Clifford Odia, a two-term senator from Agbazilo zone in the 2023 election, the district revolted and voted Monday Okpebholo as the senator from Okpebho zone. With Okpebholo’s election as governor in November 2024, the senatorial seat moved back to the Agbazilo zone. It is expected that the area will retain the seat come 2027. The recent entry of Kenneth Imansuangbon into the senatorial race on the platform of the ADC also appears to be another game-changer.

Imansuangbon, who is known as Rice Man, an appellation given to him for his over two decades of philanthropy of sharing rice with the vulnerable. His entry to the ADC camp has changed the political calculation of Edo Central. If any district is at peace in the entire Edo State, it is the Edo North Senatorial District, where Adams Oshiomhole has a cult-like followership. As a former two-term governor of the state and former National Chairman of the APC, Oshiomhole, popularly called Comrade by friends and foes alike, has been granted an automatic ticket for a return to the Senate in 2027.

Even though Edo North is a mixed bag of different ethnic nationalities, encompassing Etsako, Owan, and Akoko-Edo, Uzairue, Auchi, Anwai, Agbede, South-Ibie, and Jagbee in the Etsako West Local Government Area. From Etsako East, we have clans such as Okpella, Weppa, Wanno, the Three Ibies, and Okpekpe. In Etsako Central, we have Ekperi, Avhianwu, and Anegbete. But in all, the rallying point is Oshiomhole.

The Scenario in Delta State

With the conclusion of party congresses from the wards to the national level, the APC in Delta State appears to have crossed a major hurdle in balancing the political equation towards the 2027 elections. But the incumbent senators – Joel-Onowakpo Thomas for Delta South, Ede Dafinone, Delta Central, and Ned Nwoko, Delta North, are said to be worried by the emerging dynamics. In the Delta South zone with three ethnic groups – Isoko, Ijaw, and Itsekiri, the race to the senate is shaping up along the lines of incumbency, dominance, ethnic rotation, and APC/PDP structure. Also on the queue is Chief Itiako Ikpokpo, aka Malik, a former Chairman of Isoko South and former Chairman of the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON) in the state. The shadow of upcoming Barrister Jay Ogor, younger brother of former Minority Leader in the House of Representatives, Leo Ogor, is another visible pillar of challenge for the incumbent.

From the Itsekiri axis, Pastor Michael Diden, aka Ejele, a former PDP Candidate in the 2023 senatorial election, remains a formidable contender. With the seat currently held by an Isoko man, there may be agitation for a power shift to the Itsekiri or Ijaw areas. He must also contend with internal rivalries and possible resistance from other ethnic blocs, especially with the emergence of his kinsman, Chief Solomon Arenyeka, as the State Chairman of the APC. His chances will improve significantly if there is a strong anti-incumbent sentiment. The Ijaw may still be looking in the direction of James Manager, who represented the zone between 2003 and 2023.

The senator is arguably the most experienced politician in the race, having represented Delta South in the Senate for about two decades. His deep political networks, name recognition, and influence across Ijaw areas make him a formidable force in any contest.

In Delta North, former governor Ifeanyi Okowa and incumbent Senator Ned Nwoko are the two dominant contenders for the primary election. This is coming as political forces, however, claim Okowa, from all body language, has jettisoned the ambition.

Unfortunately, though they are meeting again in APC, the duo is politically far apart from each other. This was recently evident during the state congress of the APC, where Nwoko boycotted due to the fact that, in his view, the congress was compromised from the ward to the state level.

Though it was believed that the “bitterness” between them and the feeling that Okowa would block his ambition for a second tenure made Nwoko defect to the APC on the floor of the Senate, long before the mass defection of PDP members in the state to the APC, he is now faced with the challenge of the same Okowa in the APC. Nwoko appears to have created some positive conversations around himself with the campaign for the creation of Anioma State, which earned him huge popularity amongst the grassroots. The popularity of former Governor Okowa, a former senator as well, is seen as a big challenge.

A former aide to the former governor, who prefers to be anonymous, puts it this way: “Okowa is not thinking of contesting for the Senate or any other positions. He is committed to working hard for APC and ensuring the victory of all the candidates of the party, including the president and governor of the state. He is basically interested in working for the party and consolidating its victory on one hand, and ensuring the superlative performance of Renewed Hope Initiative in the South-South zone under his coordination.”

It was said that the former governor is projecting one of his trusted aides, Dr. Hilary Ibegbulem, his Principal Secretary while he (Okowa) was a governor, to contest the primary, something that sources said may be an avenue to scuttle the chances of Ned Nwoko.

While that plays out, Okowa is proactive in ensuring that his daughter in the state house of assembly, Mrs. Marilyn Okowa Daramola, representing Ika North-East constituency, comes back to the assembly in 2027. Reports that the former speaker of the state house of assembly and now President of the Nigerian Tennis Federation, Victor Ochie, is also eying the Senate slot. However, the fight for Delta North is projected to be between incumbent Senator Nwoko and members of the Okowa political family.

Head or tail, any candidate Okowa and his political son and governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, endorse from the zone is likely to scale the huddle at the primaries for the senatorial election.

One question that has come up regularly is what is happening in the camp of the former Deputy Senate president, Ovie Omo-Agege, especially since the merger of PDP and APC in April 2025.

Omo Agege has decided not to talk. The last time he spoke was at the APC stakeholders meeting in Asaba, where he made a case for his political followers that they should not be forgotten by the party.

After the merger, pressure mounted on him to jettison his gubernatorial ambition and focus on the senatorial ticket. Political pundits believed the coast is clearer for the versatile politician to return to the Senate in Delta Central.

The question of a battle between Omo Agege and the incumbent senator Ede Dafinone would, however, crop up. Time will tell as the sitting senator who has added several feathers on his cap for delivering quality dividends of democracy to his constituents within a short period is intensifying his efforts for a second tenure.

It was also gathered that the Chairman of the Delta State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (DESOPADEC), Hon John Nani, is eyeing the Delta Central seat. Nani previously served as a member of the State House of Assembly, representing Ethiope West Constituency.

Fubara faces a succession battle

Ahead of a possible succession battle, some loyalists of the FCT Minister are believed to be positioning themselves. Some of them include Boma Iyaye, Alabo Dakorinama, George Kelly, Erastus Awortu, Isaac Kamalu, Cyril Hart, and whoever Wike anoints would be the key, but the Minister, last week, warned individuals in his political camp against prematurely declaring governorship ambitions, stating that those already parading themselves as aspirants had been “marked red.”

“Some of the aspirants are exploiting ethnic sentiments online to advance their political agenda, this divisive and unacceptable within my political structure”. Wike declared. However, there are talks that Fubara may be persuaded to accept a senatorial seat. Within the ADC, there are names like Dakuku Peterside and Sokonte Davies.

Outsiders and dark horses emerge

Among the emerging dark horses is the former Minister of Sports, Tammy Danagogo. There are others, including Dumo Lulu-Briggs,

The Cross River Scenario

Political actors across party lines are recalibrating ambitions, reinforcing alliances, and testing their grassroots strength in what promises to be a defining electoral cycle.

At the centre of this unfolding political season is Governor Bassey Edet Otu, whose administration is steadily moving into a consolidation phase. He is believed to be in good standing, as endorsements have been falling in from different parts of the state.

Though he recently announced that political appointees with intentions to contest in 2027 should resign their positions on or before March 26, 2026, no letter has been received as of press time.

The PDP, despite having been somewhat inactive because of the mass exodus of high-profile members to other parties, is now ramping up its efforts to rebuild and redefine itself. The coalition-building efforts under the ADC in Cross River State have emerged as one of the most significant opposition realignments ahead of the 2027 elections. The movement has drawn together some of the state’s most influential political figures, notably former governors Liyel Imoke and Donald Duke, alongside former senator Gershom Bassey.

This alignment, widely described as a strategic merger of political heavyweights, is aimed at repositioning the ADC as a formidable alternative platform capable of challenging the dominance of the ruling party. Recently, key figures like Imoke and Gershom Bassey resigned from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), citing internal crises and divisions within the party. Their movement, alongside the established presence of Donald Duke within the ADC, has effectively consolidated a bloc of experienced politicians under one platform, raising the stakes for 2027.

The contest for National Assembly seats is already generating heightened political activity, particularly in the Northern Senatorial District, where a high-stakes rivalry is shaping up between former governor Ben Ayade and incumbent senator Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe.

In the Central Senatorial District, another compelling contest is gradually taking shape. Political permutations suggest the possible emergence of Oden Ewa, who currently serves as the Cross River State Commissioner for Special Duties and Intergovernmental Relations, as a challenger to incumbent senator Eteng Williams.

On the other hand, Senator Eteng Jonah Williams enters the unfolding contest with the advantages of incumbency, legislative visibility, and growing constituency outreach.

In the House of Representatives, similar undercurrents are evident as incumbents assess their chances against a new wave of aspirants. Across the three senatorial districts, there are signs of a generational shift, with younger actors beginning to assert their presence in what has traditionally been a terrain dominated by the established political elite.

The Bayelsa calculations

In Bayelsa state, though its governorship falls into off cycle, that is, the election will be in late 2027, but since the release of the general election timetable by INEC, there has been political realignment.

There has been a subtle rivalry between Governor Douye Diri and his predecessor, Senator Seriake Dickson, for control of the state. Meanwhile, at the National Assembly, there are indications that the current senator representing Bayelsa Central, Senator Seriake Dickson, is warming up to go for a second tenure, and his recent floating of a new political platform, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), was mainly to actualise his dream and to enlarge its membership.

He has said at the party’s National Executive committee meeting: “Those who are aggrieved and disgruntled and sidelined from African Congress, which is now about to collapse under the weight of its own creation out of greed, and those who cannot find space because the ruling party is too heavy to join the NDC because it’s their own platform.”

Previously, most members of the PDP in Bayelsa had spent only a tenure in the National Assembly; the only exception to this is Alfred Agbedi, who represents Ekeremor/Sagbama Federal Constituency. He has, however, recently declared interest in the senatorial seat, bringing him into conflict with Senator Seriake Dickason for the Bayelsa Central district.

At the Senatorial level, apart from Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the current Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, who spent two tenures, senators who represented Bayelsa East have spent one tenure due to what was described as a gentleman’s agreement between Nembe/Brass and Ogbia Local Government Areas.

Though the Bayelsa governorship election is far ahead of other elections due to the fact that it falls under an off-cycle election, the incumbent Governor Diri tries to choose his successor, just like he was chosen by his predecessor, Seriake Dickson.

Names such as Abraham Ingobere, from Akassa, Dr Samuel Ogbuku, Ogbia, Managing Director of Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Senator Benson Agadaga, Ogbia, all from Bayelsa East Senatorial District, where the next governor is expected to come, are being mentioned as possible candidates.

Also in the race is the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Dr. Heineken Lokpobiri, though from Bayelsa West Senatorial District, analysts say he has deep pockets to execute his governorship ambition.

While there is a need for wider consultation for the next governor of Bayelsa state, the influence of former President Goodluck Jonathan cannot be ruled out. As a statesman and worldly respected personality, he is expected to play a role in selecting the governor of his state of origin. (TRIBUNE)

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