By all indications, the distant rumble of conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is no longer a faraway geopolitical story. In Nigeria, it is being felt in the most Immediate and personal ways, at the petrol station, in crowded buses, and across market stalls where the cost of food is climbing by the week.

For many households, the crisis has sharpened an already fragile cost-of-living reality. Petrol prices, which hovered around N840 per litre earlier in the year, have surged to about N1,300, triggering a cascade of increases in transportation, food, and basic services.

A large basket of tomatoes at the popular Mile 12 market in Lagos, now sells for as much as N60,000, up from N41,000 just weeks ago. A bag of fresh pepper has jumped even more steeply, from N46,000 to N80,000, BusinessDay findings revealed.

“Transport is very expensive,” lamented Isa Sani, a pepper seller in Ikeja, noting that a portion of red pepper that sold for N200 a few months ago now goes for N500.

A windfall without relief

Ironically, Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy stands to benefit from rising global crude prices triggered by the conflict. A policy brief by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) describes the situation as a potential fiscal opportunity, estimating possible windfalls ranging from N2.3 trillion in a short-lived crisis to as much as N30.2 trillion if high prices persist.

But for ordinary Nigerians, that promise of windfall feels distant, almost abstract.

The absence of visible buffers, policy measures designed to cushion citizens from economic shocks, has become a focal point of frustration. Unlike previous crises, when fuel subsidies or price controls offered temporary relief, the current moment reflects a policy vacuum, at least from the perspective of many citizens.

Lessons from other nations

Other countries facing similar external shocks have moved more decisively to shield their populations.

In India, the government has repeatedly adjusted fuel taxes to stabilise pump prices, while expanding targeted subsidies for cooking gas to protect low-income households.

France has deployed energy vouchers and capped electricity price increases, ensuring that households are insulated from the full impact of global energy spikes.

Similarly, Indonesia has combined fuel subsidies with direct cash transfers to millions of vulnerable citizens, even as it gradually reforms its subsidy regime.

These interventions share a common thread: targeted relief without completely abandoning long-term fiscal discipline.

Nigeria’s policy dilemma

Back home, economists warn that the government faces a delicate balancing act.

Abdulfatai Adedeji, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, argues that while the instinct to shield citizens is valid, reverting to blanket fuel subsidies could prove counterproductive.

“Policymakers should resist the temptation to reverse fuel subsidy reforms,” he said in an earlier conversation with BusinessDay. “That could cost between N3 trillion and N5 trillion if global prices remain elevated.”

Instead, he recommends expanding targeted cash transfers under the National Social Safety Net Programme, potentially reaching 13 to 15 million households. Such an approach, he notes, would preserve reform gains while offering immediate relief to those most affected.

State governments, he added, must also strengthen social registers and monitoring systems to ensure support reaches intended beneficiaries.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group echoes this position, urging authorities to “save the windfall, maintain monetary discipline, strengthen external buffers, and protect vulnerable households through targeted support rather than broad price controls.”

Pressure on households and businesses

For small businesses, the crisis is equally punishing. Rising fuel costs have driven up logistics and production expenses, forcing many operators to either increase prices or absorb losses.

“The fuel price is a major concern for me,” said Fatima Olaitan, a frozen food seller in Lagos. “The erratic power supply has worsened the situation. I’m being conscious of raising prices in order not to drive customers away.”

The ripple effects extend across supply chains, tightening margins and threatening jobs. Economists warn that if left unchecked, these pressures could slow recovery in the real sector and deepen inflationary trends.

“For businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, temporary relief measures such as energy cost support, logistics assistance and expanded SME financing could help sustain operations and employment,” Adedeji, earlier quoted, recommended.

Already, food inflation, which had dropped to a promising 8.89 percent in January, has reversed course, rising to 12.12 percent in February following the onset of the conflict.

Across social strata, the message is consistent: Nigerians are not just asking for relief; they are asking for a clear strategy.

The current crisis presents Nigeria with a paradox, an opportunity to strengthen its fiscal position while simultaneously confronting a surge in domestic hardship.

Whether the government can convert oil windfalls into meaningful buffers for citizens may define both the economic trajectory of the country and public confidence in its reform agenda.

For now, the gap between rising national earnings and everyday hardship continues to widen, leaving millions of Nigerians to navigate a global crisis with little insulation at home. (BusinessDay)

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