Gulf nations have suffered economic damages exceeding $50 billion as tensions escalate in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to an analysis.

The conflict, sparked by US and Israeli attacks on Iran followed by retaliatory measures from Tehran, has entered its second month and expanded into a broader regional crisis.

The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 percent of global oil transportation and serves as a major gateway for LNG trade, has increased financial pressure on Gulf economies.

36% decline in oil exports

Between Feb. 27 and March 30, oil exports from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain declined from 12.323 million barrels per day to 7.833 million barrels, a 36.4% decrease, according to the Strait of Hormuz Closure Scenario and Country Impact Analysis.

The report was released by Ankara-based Türkiye Energy Strategies and Policies Research Center (TESPAM) and compiled by Anadolu.

The reduced exports resulted in a loss of $15.275 billion in oil revenues, TESPAM said.

When disruptions to LNG, shipments, energy facilities and other sectors are included, total losses surpass $50 billion, it added.

Reduced traffic through the strait has significantly lowered export volumes, cutting into the primary income sources of Gulf economies.

Beyond energy markets, the conflict has slowed economic activity across the region, affecting production, infrastructure, logistics, trade routes, finance and tourism.

Just four weeks in, the crisis has already highlighted the scale of economic damage.The Gulf region produces about 30 million barrels of oil daily, representing nearly one-third of global supply. Much of this production is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.

Qatar and the UAE account for approximately 20% of global LNG exports, with most shipments passing through the same route.

Oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq also rely heavily on this corridor.

Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) figures show that about 25% of global seaborne oil shipments move through the Strait of Hormuz.

Major Asian economies, including China, Japan, South Korea and India depend heavily on Gulf energy supplies, with 44 percent of crude shipped from the region exported to China and India.

Most severe supply disruption in modern history

TESPAM President Oguzhan Akyener described the drop in shipments as one of the most severe supply disruptions in modern history.

"LNG and petrochemical revenues excluded, the four-week loss in oil revenues for Gulf countries is calculated at $15.2 billion, while including LNG and all other products, total losses for the Feb. 27 -March 30 period are estimated to exceed $50 billion," Akyener told Anadolu.

He said countries were taking measures to reduce market disruptions, warning that a prolonged conflict could deepen challenges in the energy, transportation and food sectors.

Akyener also noted that IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks during the second and third weeks of the crisis.

"After oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel in a short period, the IEA's move prevented uncontrolled price increases and enabled refineries to secure short-term crude supply," he said.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), derives about 60% of government revenue from oil, Akyener said.

He added that supply from the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain dropped by nearly half compared with pre-conflict levels.

Biggest losers?

Akyener said the crisis has reshaped global energy dynamics.

"The biggest losers of the crisis were Gulf exporters, Asian oil and LNG importers, tanker transportation and countries dependent on trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Following the crisis, Central Asian oil, Eastern Mediterranean gas, African oil production and US LNG exports became more significant. In other words, the global energy system is becoming more fragmented and multipolar," he said.

The strategic waterway remains critical for several Gulf states. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain rely almost entirely on the route for exports, while Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran can partially bypass it through pipelines.

Saudi Arabia has increased the use of its East-West crude oil pipeline, which has a capacity of 5 million barrels per day.

The UAE has redirected shipments through the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline to Fujairah, capable of transporting 1.5 million barrels daily.

Iraq can also export through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, providing an alternative path to global markets.

*Writing by Gizem Nisa Demir in Istanbul (Anadolu Agency)

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