From drought-hit central and western regions to saturated soils in the east, Türkiye is facing a stark climate divide, with prolonged rainfall deficits tightening their grip on key agricultural areas even as heavy rains raise the risk of flooding elsewhere.

Data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service’s February 2026 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps show a multi-layered picture, with long-term rainfall deficits persisting across western and central provinces while eastern regions record unusually high moisture levels.

“This shows that the two-year rainfall deficit has now become chronic,” Mikdat Kadioglu of Istanbul Technical University’s Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering Department told Anadolu.

He said exceptional and severe drought conditions are evident in Eskisehir, Kutahya, Afyon, Usak and western parts of Ankara.

Kadioglu also pointed to continued drought signals in the Marmara Region, with deficits visible in both 24-month and 12-month data around Bursa, Bilecik, Bolu and Sakarya, raising concerns over water resources.

He warned that the impact is no longer limited to rainfall patterns.

"Drinking water supplies remain at risk in several major cities, most notably Ankara," he said. "Drought has become not only a meteorological problem, but an economic and social one as well."

Agricultural production and water resources under pressure

Prolonged drought is already affecting agriculture, with soil moisture declining sharply across key farming regions, including the plains of Eskisehir, Afyon and Kony.

Kadioglu warned this could lead to reduced crop yields, particularly in areas already facing long-term precipitation deficits.

He noted that hydrological drought typically follows meteorological drought with a delay, meaning reservoir and groundwater levels in Marmara and inner Western Anatolia have yet to recover despite recent rainfall.

Along the Konya-Karaman line, one of Türkiye’s major grain-producing areas, production is increasingly under threat.

Water supply security is also becoming increasingly critical in the Marmara Region, Kadioglu warned.

Rainfall surge in east brings new risks

While western regions struggle with drought, short-term data shows strong winter rainfall across eastern Türkiye.

Kadioglu said very moist and, in some areas, extremely moist conditions are being recorded along the line from Sivas to Hakkari.

"This is positive for agricultural production, but it also brings with it the risk of flooding," he said.

The risk of flash floods is rising across eastern and southeastern Anatolia due to increased rainfall, he added.

Rainfall has exceeded seasonal norms around Diyarbakir, Sirnak, Siirt, Batman and Mardin in southeastern Anatolia, while high moisture levels in the Eastern Black Sea region are increasing the risk of landslides.

Limited recovery in central regions

Kadioglu pointed to uneven rainfall patterns across Central Anatolia, noting that recent precipitation along the Konya-Aksaray-Nevsehir line has not been enough to offset long-term deficits.

"Even winter rainfall in inner western Anatolia has not been sufficient to close the two-year deficit. This region remains the most critical area in terms of agricultural drought," he said.

He added that while the Mediterranean coast, including Mersin, Adana and Antalya, has seen rainfall return to near-normal levels in recent months, the two-year cumulative deficit has yet to be fully closed.

"It is not possible to close a two-year deficit with a few months of rainfall," he said. "Water management policies therefore need to be strengthened and more comprehensive steps should be taken to address drought." (AA)

Update news