The Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), Dele Oye, has said Nigeria missed a major economic opportunity to capitalise on the recent surge in global oil prices triggered by the ongoing Iran war, which could have generated at least N28.3 trillion annually in additional revenue.

Oye, who is the immediate past chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN), in a statement, said the war opened a window of opportunity, but without production discipline, Nigeria risks watching billions slip through its fingers.

According to him, “When the Iran war sent oil prices soaring past $100 per barrel, many nations rushed to harvest the windfall. But Nigeria, the giant of Africa, found itself like the proverbial goat standing in front of palm leaves yet chewing stones. The paradox is painful: oil is expensive, but our pockets remain empty.

“On paper, Nigeria should be smiling to the bank. Brent crude now trades at $102–$114 per barrel, far above our budget benchmark of $64.85. That’s a premium of $37–$49 per barrel, translating to a theoretical N28.3 trillion annual windfall. But reality bites harder than arithmetic.”

On Production Shortfall, Oye lamented, “We pump 1.46 million barrels per day instead of the 1.84 million target. That’s 380,000 barrels missing daily like ‘cooking soup without meat’.

“Much of our crude is already pledged to creditors and refineries. During the Russia-Ukraine war, oil hit $110 for six months, yet Nigeria captured little. Why? Low production and subsidy drains. Our ‘extra’ revenue is largely a mirage. Even NNPC’s promise to add 100,000 barrels is a “drop in the ocean” compared to the 360,000+ bpd gap.”

He noted that if Nigeria could capture even a fraction of this premium, it could fund “Strategic petroleum reserves” (we currently have none). Fertiliser subsidies before April planting season. CNG conversion kits to reduce petrol dependence. Targeted social transfers to shield vulnerable households.

Refinery rehabilitation and modular refinery investments.

“But as elders say, ‘A child who cannot hold a cup should not be given a calabash.’ Without fixing production, these dreams remain ‘castles in the air.”

On the way forward, Oye charged, “Nigeria must resist the temptation of quick fixes and instead build resilience: Sell crude to local refineries in naira to ease forex pressure.

Release any strategic reserves to stabilise supply. Digitally distribute fertilisers to farmers before planting season. Introduce flexible fuel taxes that shrink when global prices surge. Scale up CNG adoption and LPG household conversion. Secure oil assets to close the 380,000 bpd production gap.

Ring-fence windfalls into the Sovereign Wealth Fund and Excess Crude Account.

States should subsidise public transport, not fuel. Let households cook with LPG, not petrol.

“Above all, avoid the subsidy trap and resist adjusting budgets to assume $100 oil is permanent. As the elders say, “The rain does not fall forever; the sun must shine again.”

He added, “Nigeria stands at a crossroads. The Iran war has opened a window of opportunity, but without production discipline, we risk watching billions slip through our fingers. Oil booms are fleeting.

“The real test is whether Nigeria can finally build an economy that thrives not because oil is expensive, but because its foundations are strong enough to withstand both boom and gloom. As one editorial wisely put it: ‘A nation that eats its seed yam during planting season will starve at harvest.’ Nigeria must choose wisely.” (Nigerian Tribune)

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