Almost exactly one month ago, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met indirectly with the Iranians in Geneva as the Trump administration continued to claim diplomacy was its preferred option. Two days later, the US and Israel launched their war against Iran.

Now, the United States is again seeking to return to talks after President Donald Trump’s about face on Monday when he announced the two countries were negotiating an end to the conflict –- but there are significant hurdles on the path back to the negotiating table despite public optimism voiced by the White House.

Gulf and European allies are closely watching and growing concerned about the lack of momentum towards negotiations to end the conflict or even put a ceasefire into place, multiple sources told CNN.

Although there are efforts underway to try to arrange a meeting between the two sides, sources say such a gathering is unlikely to take place soon given the wide gap between the two countries’ demands.

The specter of continued military action by the US and Israel looms large over potential discussions. Meanwhile, Tehran perceives itself to possess a key tool that it did not have prior to the outbreak of the war: virtual control over the Strait of Hormuz.

“The very basics must be agreed on before the two sides board and take off for negotiations,” one regional source, told CNN adding that Iranians have now given “a maximum no to a maximalist offer.”

Earlier this week, the US conveyed, via Pakistan, a 15-point list of demands for Iran. Many of the demands echo those made by the US before the war began: Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, the US taking possession of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, and an end of Iran’s support for proxies.

If that is truly the US’ position, “there is no world where there’ll be successful negotiations,” Nate Swanson, a former career US government official who served as director for Iran at the National Security Council, told CNN.

The other key player in the war, Israel, is concerned that the US may declare a one-month ceasefire in order to facilitate negotiations with Iran, two Israeli sources told CNN. However, the country remains skeptical about the prospect of a breakthrough, according to one of the sources.

“The maximum Iran might be willing to give does not meet the minimum the US is demanding,” the source said, adding that Israel views several elements of the US framework as “positive and good for Israel” -– in particular those regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the activities of its regional proxies. However, another Israeli source said that in the long run, Israel is wary that an eventual ceasefire agreement will not address all of its concerns, particularly regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program and proxy activities around the region.

Swanson said Iran likely perceives Trump is taking the same stance as before – offering capitulation or escalation – and it does not appear that Iran is taking the prospect of diplomacy seriously. Tehran, he said, is putting out “an equally as audacious and unrealistic proposal.”

On Wednesday, an Iranian official outlined the country’s own list of demands, according to state-run media outlet Press TV. They include a complete halt to “aggression and assassinations,” establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure the war on Iran does not resume, guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations, an end to military operations across all fronts and for all Iranian proxies throughout the region, and a guarantee that Iran can exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

No sign of a viable agreement

Tehran’s ability to snarl the key waterway, despite US progress degrading Iran’s military capabilities, has caused the price of fuel to skyrocket and set global markets on edge. It is also a potential edge for Iran in future negotiations, and sources say none of the interlocutors sending messages between the two sides or the Trump administration are now able to convey what the contours of a viable agreement might look like.

Some Gulf nations and other US allies would like to see an immediate halt to fighting and an opening of the strait, but others want a grander deal to be reached. UAE’s Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaiba wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Wednesday saying that a ceasefire is not enough right now, advocating for an overall agreement to be struck.

“A simple cease-fire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats: nuclear capabilities, missiles, drones, terror proxies and blockades of international sea lanes,” Otaiba wrote.

“Strait of Hormuz is a new tool for them in a way we haven’t seen before,” said Swanson, who is now at the Atlantic Council, noting that Iran likes to serve as “tollbooth operator” for the passage.

Iranian officials have continued to maintain they are not in negotiations with the US, but Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi did acknowledge an exchange of messages between the two countries through mediators.

“The fact that messages are being sent and we respond with warnings or state our positions is not called negotiation or dialogue; it is an exchange of messages,” he said on the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting network.

“In these messages, ideas were raised that have been conveyed to top authorities, and if a position needs to be taken, they will announce it,” Araghchi said Wednesday.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, meanwhile, insisted on Wednesday that “talks continue” and “they are productive.”

Trump administration officials are working to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an off ramp to the war, two senior administration officials told CNN. The current plans have Vice President JD Vance traveling to the country, possibly alongside other top Trump officials.

Iranian representatives have let the Trump administration know it does not want to re-enter negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner and would prefer to engage with Vance, two regional sources said. Trump on Tuesday said Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Kushner and Witkoff are currently leading negotiations with Iran.

Officials cautioned that the timing of a potential trip is fluid, as is the location and who may attend. Turkey has also been suggested as a potential location for the talks, two sources familiar with the matter said, as some officials raise security concerns about holding a meeting in Pakistan. Both Pakistan and Turkey have served as intermediaries between the US and Iran.

Amid the flurry of back and forth about potential talks this weekend, Gulf allies are privately urging the Trump administration against ramping up the war by putting boots on the ground to occupy Kharg Island or remove Iran’s highly enriched uranium, a senior Gulf official said, citing concerns that a US occupation of the island would result in high casualties, likely trigger Iranian retaliation against regional infrastructure, and prolong the conflict.

Still, the potential for further US military action is looming. Approximately 1,000 US soldiers with the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are expecting to deploy in coming days to the Middle East, according to two sources familiar with the matter, adding to the growing military firepower in the region as the Trump administration says it is in talks with Iran to end the conflict.

Leavitt warned Wednesday that if “Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment,” Trump “is prepared to unleash hell.” (CNN)

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