Are the first signs of Arsenal's reliance on Bukayo Saka starting to show?

Arsenal's defeat by Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final was the 50th game of their gruelling season as their hopes of a quadruple were dashed.

The Gunners are still having an excellent season and are in a great position to pick up a trophy at the end of the campaign.

They are in a commanding position in the Premier League, in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup and at the same stage of the Champions League, with their loss to City only their fourth in all competitions this season.

Saka captained Arsenal for the defeat by City and his performance, along with his recent form, has been called into question by supporters and pundits as the Gunners missed out on winning a first piece of silverware since 2020.

With a World Cup around the corner, England manager Thomas Tuchel is attempting to protect his key players and, with Saka one of the players nearly guaranteed to start, he has been given the first week of this international window off to rest.

What has happened?

"That pressure to win trophies can tally up and make it difficult," former Manchester United and England striker Wayne Rooney said when speaking about Saka's form.

"I think he has struggled this season. He has played a lot of games in his career already. I think we all know there is more there."

Part of the reason that Saka's form has been called into question is because of the high standards and impressive performances expected from the Arsenal winger.

The 24-year-old signed a new five-year deal with his boyhood club in February as they moved to secure his future for the prime years of his career.

Saka's importance to Arsenal cannot be underestimated. His story, connection with the fans and academy, and his importance to his team cannot be replaced.

With Arsenal's American ownership and the globalisation of football, Saka is their franchise player.

But, with that profile and the club's reliance on him, when things are not clicking, the questions come.

The England international has scored two goals since the turn of the year. He has played 17 games and missed three matches with a hip injury.

And, before his goal in the 2-2 draw against Wolves last month, when Saka played as a number 10, he had not found the net for 15 games in all competitions. He has scored six league goals in 27 appearances this season.

Saka has played a lot of football in his career. The appearance against City in the final was his 305th for Arsenal in all competitions.

But that is exactly what his manager Mikel Arteta wants from him: reliability.

In 2022, when asked about giving Saka a rest, the Arsenal boss pointed at the number of games the elite players in football play.

"Look at the top players in the world. They play 70 matches - every three days - and make the difference and win the game," he said.

"You want to be at the top, you have to be able to do that."

Missing connections

There are reasons why Saka may not be in full flow at the moment.

Saka has only nine goals and assists combined in the league this season, which means it is not one of the standout campaigns of his career, but the underlying expected goals (xG) numbers suggest that he is a bit unlucky not to have a few more to his name.

The graph below shows that he should have had one more goal and three more assists this season.

His talent and threat from the right wing is not new, and opposition defences often use two or sometimes three defenders to shut him down.

That means he can shift the ball to a team-mate in space to make something happen, but that does not always mean he gets the numbers which reflect the danger he brings in attack.

Another reason is that the Arsenal right side has been plagued by injuries this season.

Captain Martin Odegaard has had a broken season, suffering two knee and two shoulder injuries that have limited him to 13 starts in the league.

Ben White has also suffered with injury this season, with Arteta also preferring to use Jurrien Timber when he is fit.

The right side of the Arsenal attack was one of the most fluid parts of the team and Saka's connection with White and Odegaard meant that their movement allowed him to move freely and into space.

That has not happened this season and, along with the injuries to Kai Havertz, who usually plays up front for the Gunners if fit, Saka has had to try to make a connection with summer signing Viktor Gyokeres, and that partnership has not really got going.

Are injuries a worry?

Saka's hamstring problem last season was the first major injury of his career.

And, in a sign of his robustness, it came on his 250th appearance for Arsenal, and made him the the youngest Englishman to reach that milestone for the Gunners.

That injury kept him out for 101 days, but he scored on his return against Fulham before scoring away against Real Madrid as Arsenal reached the last four of the Champions League, before going out against Paris St-Germain.

This season he picked up a hamstring injury which kept him out for four weeks early on in the campaign. He then pulled out of the warm-up away at Leeds in January with a hip injury and missed three games.

This season, although low on numbers for Saka, could be one of the most important of his career as he looks to play a vital part in Arsenal winning major trophies.

The 2023-24 season, shown in the graph below, is somewhat of an outlier for Saka, with 0.49 goals per 90 minutes that season coming as a result of his scoring six penalties. He has taken only one this season.

For the past six seasons Saka has consistently been among the highest Arsenal players for minutes played too.

This season he has played 2,869 minutes in all competitions, which is more than the 2,619 he played last season.

With a World Cup coming up, Tuchel is mindful of protecting his stars, saying "some of these guys have already played more minutes than the whole of last season and there is still a lot of football to play" when announcing his latest squad.

Saka could play up to 15 more games this season for Arsenal if they reach the finals of the FA Cup and Champions League, which would take his tally to 57 if he plays in all of them.

It may not be his best in terms of numbers but, if he is one of the leading figures to help Arsenal end their trophy drought, while playing a key part in England's challenge for the World Cup, this could still be one of the most important campaigns of his career. (BBC)

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