Serving ministers and government appointees angling for gubernatorial tickets in 2027 are in a dilemma as the resignation deadline draws near.

The government officials, following the President’s March 31, 2026, resignation directive, have begun weighing their options and chances in their various states ahead of the major cabinet-exit decision. Their choices are not any lighter by the competing interests and feisty internal politics across states.

Already, no fewer than nine ministers in the Tinubu administration are expected to step down over renewed political ambitions across their respective states.

While some of the ministers may have already been preparing to exit, the stark reality is that they will have to return to their home states and reconnect with grassroots politics to determine their political fate ahead of 2027.

Among those likely to make the move is the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, who is expected to rejoin the race for the Oyo State governorship. Similarly, the Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Muhammad Ali Pate, is being linked with the governorship contest in Bauchi State, where the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, is also believed to be nursing similar ambitions.

In the South-East, Nkeiruka Onyejeocha, Minister of State for Labour, may either return to the National Assembly or seek the governorship seat of Abia State. For Borno State, the Minister of Agriculture, Abubakar Kyari, is widely speculated to be preparing for a governorship bid, while Saidu Ahmed Alkali is linked to the race in Gombe State.

Also on the radar is the Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, who may test his popularity in Ogun State. In Plateau State, the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Bernard Doro, is reportedly eyeing a senatorial seat, while Ekperikpe Ekpo is projected to join the governorship race in Akwa Ibom State.

Most of these ministers are expected to step down before the commencement of party primaries, scheduled between April 22 and May 20, 2026, in compliance with electoral guidelines and party requirements.

Also linked to the 2027 governorship ambition in Kwara State are the Director General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Issa Onilu; the Director General of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS), Abubakar Olanrewaju Suleiman; and the Pro-Chancellor of the Federal University of Health Sciences, Ila Orangun, Wale Sulaiman.

The possible obstacles and advantages

For Adelabu, his ambition would immediately confront a combination of political, structural and perception challenges capable of defining the trajectory of his campaign long before the general election.

At the centre of these hurdles is the dominance of Governor Seyi Makinde and the entrenched structure of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. Although Makinde will complete his tenure before the election, his influence over party succession and grassroots mobilisation remains formidable. Any PDP candidate emerging with his backing would inherit an already functional political machinery, placing Adelabu at a structural disadvantage from the outset.

Equally significant are internal divisions within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State. Years of factional disputes have weakened party cohesion, and Adelabu’s shifting political alignments, from APC to Accord Party and back, may fuel resistance among party stakeholders.

Securing the APC ticket could therefore become his first major battlefield, especially against strong aspirants with established grassroots networks and longstanding party loyalty.

The most defining challenge lies in the public perception of his performance as Minister of Power. Nigeria’s electricity sector remains one of the most sensitive governance issues, directly affecting households and businesses.

Zoning politics also complicates his path. While Adelabu is from Ibadan, the state’s dominant political bloc, growing agitation from Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso and Oyo zones for power rotation could reshape party calculations and weaken consensus around another Ibadan candidate.

Beyond party primaries, Adelabu must also rebuild trust among voters following previous electoral defeats and political realignments, while countering any anti-federal sentiment that may arise from economic pressures linked to the ruling party.

Ultimately, Adelabu’s challenge extends beyond contesting an election; it involves reconciling party factions, defending his ministerial record and constructing a persuasive narrative capable of overcoming the PDP’s entrenched dominance in Oyo politics.

He will also contend with names such as Adebo Akande, Adegboyega Adegoke, Nureni Adeniran and Niyi Aborisade, all seen as figures capable of inheriting Makinde’s political base if backed by the governor.

For Adelabu within the APC, contenders such as former governorship candidate Teslim Folarin, House of Representatives member Remi Oseni, former deputy governor Rauf Olaniyan and erstwhile Minister of Communications Adebayo Shittu are also strong aspirants. Other hopefuls, including Azeez Adeduntan, Akeem Agbaje and Saheed Oladele, are mobilising support, while Senator Sharafadeen Alli is frequently mentioned in ongoing consultations.

If Pate resigns to pursue the 2027 governorship in Bauchi State, he will face steep political headwinds despite his strong technocratic profile.

Top among these is the zoning reality that has historically favoured Bauchi South, leaving contenders from Bauchi Central, like Pate, at a structural disadvantage in the state’s power calculus. This long-standing arrangement could limit his ability to galvanise broad-based support across key voting blocs.

Equally significant is his limited grassroots political machinery. Unlike entrenched politicians, Pate is not deeply rooted in ward-level mobilisation and patronage networks that often determine electoral outcomes in Bauchi.

Within the APC, he must also contend with intense primary battles from established figures who command loyalty among delegates and local power brokers, further complicating his path to securing the party’s ticket.

On the opposition front, the influence of incumbent governor Bala Mohammed remains formidable. His political structure, whether retained within the PDP or realigned, will significantly shape the contest.

Compounding this is the elite perception challenge, with Pate often viewed as a policy expert rather than a grassroots politician, which could hinder acceptance among local stakeholders. Together, these hurdles underscore the complexity of his potential bid.

For Tuggar, several structural and political factors will shape both his viability and the challenges ahead.

He would require a cohesive and united party structure in Bauchi. However, internal factionalism within the APC in the state, often driven by legacy disputes and competing interests, could weaken his chances if not resolved before the primaries.

Another key factor is grassroots acceptability. While Tuggar possesses strong diplomatic credentials and national visibility, governorship contests in Bauchi are heavily influenced by local networks, traditional institutions and ward-level mobilisation.

Zoning and regional balance may also come into play. Bauchi politics is sensitive to senatorial distribution of power, and any perceived imbalance could trigger resistance from key blocs.

Tuggar’s ambition would therefore hinge on his ability to consolidate APC structures, neutralise PDP influence and translate his national profile into local political capital.

For Onilu, Suleiman and others, the disposition of the outgoing governor of Kwara State, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, will largely determine how far their ambitions can go, alongside the determination of opposition parties such as the PDP, whose candidates will also seek to unseat the ruling APC.

Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, faces a different calculation. His achievements in broadband expansion and digital innovation have strengthened his technocratic credentials, but analysts say translating federal technology reforms into grassroots political support in Ogun State may prove challenging without a visible local economic impact.

Similarly, the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, confronts perhaps the toughest political test, as rising food prices may shape public judgment of his performance should he pursue governorship ambitions in Borno State.

In contrast, the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, faces less immediate electoral pressure. With the Ondo State governorship election scheduled for 2028, analysts believe his ongoing reforms in passport administration and immigration services are aimed at building long-term political capital rather than preparing for an imminent resignation.

Wike option in PDP’s revised game plan

BARRING any contrary signal from the Presidency, the Minister of Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Ezenwo Wike, may announce his resignation from the Federal Cabinet in what insiders say would be the first step towards actualising his revised game plan for the 2027 general election.

It was learned that the Caretaker National Working Committee, led by Abdulrahman Mohammed, which is loyal to the FCT Minister, sees the recent Appeal Court ruling on the lingering leadership dispute within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as a tacit endorsement of their leadership.

On March 9, 2026, the Court of Appeal, while dismissing the appeal filed by the Kabiru Tanimu Turaki-led NWC, discovered that the party’s failure to abide by the statutory regulations and improper notification of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) violated the steps towards a proper convention.

However, while upholding the restraining order placed on INEC against recognising the outcomes of the Ibadan Convention, the court encouraged the party to seek an alternative dispute resolution approach to settle their family differences.

However, it was gathered that shortly after the ruling, the FCT Minister, who hailed the judgment of the Appellate court as a victory for due process, started oiling his political machinery towards a possible contest for the PDP presidential ticket.

An insider confided in The Guardian that the initial plan was for the former PDP National Secretary, Senator Sam Anyanwu, to fly the PDP presidential flag and later announce his withdrawal for President Tinubu.

“But, from the look of things, our leader thinks that flying the PDP flag will enhance his capacity to mobilise support for the President, especially in Rivers, Imo and Enugu states. His experiment in the FCT election was found to be very effective. So, he wants to repeat them in the states he has an interest in,” the source stated.

The source said that the Minister was planning to see President Tinubu in Lagos to finalise arrangements towards adopting the strategy, stressing that the Minister’s move was instrumental to recent calls for the zoning of the PDP tickets.

Shock directive, performance record

It was gathered that despite the clear deadline, some expected aspirants are not in a hurry to step down, as sources disclosed that remaining in office provides strategic advantages they are reluctant to relinquish.

Leaving too early may mean losing these benefits without any guarantee of electoral success.

There is also uncertainty within political parties, as many aspirants continue to wait for clear signals, endorsements or zoning decisions before taking the final step.

Stakeholders’ views on the ministers

However, stakeholders across the political spectrum believe that the hesitation shown by aspiring appointees could stem from their assessment of their platform’s popularity or from fears about the impact of the direct primary method on their chances of clinching party tickets.

A member of the opposition coalition, Dr Umar Ardo, said that as politicians, some aspirants may be buying time or seeking the approval of their principal before quitting to avoid negative interpretations or possible vendetta, as their actions could be viewed as sabotage.

Also, the Executive Director of the Human Rights Writers Association (HURIWA), Emmanuel Onwubiko, stated that contrary to speculations that appointees are reluctant to resign, they will eventually do so.

He noted that while some aspirants may still be negotiating presidential endorsement, others may wait until the final moments before stepping down.

In an interview with The Guardian yesterday, public affairs analyst Tony Ogbebor downplayed the potential impact of ministers resigning to run for elective office, insisting that governance would continue uninterrupted.

He stated: “The exit of such cabinet members would merely trigger a routine administrative process, where permanent secretaries assume acting roles pending fresh appointments by President Bola Tinubu.

“None of the appointees is indispensable. Their absence, particularly in the power sector, would hardly be felt given the observed underwhelming performance.”

Ogbebor accused the Power Minister of presiding over persistent challenges, including repeated national grid collapses, even as he questioned the minister’s readiness to seek elective office.

“His track record at the federal level raises doubts about his capacity to govern effectively at the state level. If he could not fix power with all the support at his disposal, what exactly is he going to campaign with?” he asked, adding that he would not support such a candidate if allowed to vote.

While offering a more measured assessment of Tuggar, whom he rated as “barely average,” and a slightly above-average rating for the Minister of Health, Ogbebor maintained that technocratic credentials alone do not guarantee effective leadership.

He warned that Nigeria has witnessed instances in which technocrats in government performed worse than career politicians, while expressing support for enforcing provisions of the Electoral Act requiring political appointees to resign before contesting elections.

“This is a step toward ensuring fairness. Those seeking elective positions should step down and face the electorate on equal terms. The political space should reward competence and accountability,” he asserted.

In his intervention, the Initiator of the Creative Change Centre, Omole Ibukun, said Nigeria’s public institutions are unlikely to experience meaningful structural shifts despite the expected exits, as they are largely driven by political leadership rather than strong bureaucratic systems.

According to him, the absence of ministers and agency heads will expose institutional weaknesses and create temporary governance gaps.

“These MDAs are not driven by institutional continuity because they are run by political appointees sitting atop weak bureaucracies,” he said. “What you will see is acting leadership, permanent secretaries or senior directors, stepping in, but decision-making will slow down, especially on politically sensitive issues. Some programmes may enter a holding pattern, while internal jockeying will intensify as different power blocs position themselves ahead of new appointments.”

Ibukun further noted that the potential exits of key cabinet members reflect deeper governance challenges across critical sectors. He pointed to the Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Muhammad Ali Pate, noting that his departure would come at a time when the country’s health system remains “broken, underfunded, unequal and crisis prone.”

He also criticised the performance of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, arguing that Nigeria’s foreign policy has yet to achieve a significant economic impact. “Nigeria’s foreign policy still lacks economic depth, with trade, diaspora leverage and regional influence largely under-optimised,” he stated.

On the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Ibukun was even more scathing, accusing its Director General, Issa Onilu, of failing to make the agency relevant. “You cannot ‘orient’ citizens in a state that materially disorients them. Under his leadership, NOA became largely irrelevant,” he said.

Ibukun suggested that the anticipated resignations underscore a recurring pattern in Nigerian governance, where public office is often treated as a stepping stone to higher political ambition rather than an opportunity for reform. “What this situation shows is that many of them came to prepare for the next office, not to transform the current one,” he told The Guardian. (The Guardian)

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