Arsenal and Manchester City’s battle for domestic supremacy shifts to the Wembley stage on Sunday – but this feels like more than just another Carabao Cup final.

Mikel Arteta’s side currently hold sway with a nine-point lead in the Premier League and a place in the Champions League quarter-finals, while Pep Guardiola’s City were eliminated by Real Madrid in Europe’s elite competition for the third time in four seasons.

The two clubs are still involved in the FA Cup – but the first major final of the season offers the possibility to strike a psychological blow as the campaign enters its closing phase.

It could be the first of three meetings between the pair before the season is out, with a huge league match at Etihad Stadium in April and a potential FA Cup tie.

Could a win at Wembley (kick-off 16:30 GMT) give either an edge in the matches to come and provide momentum for further glory?

Will Arteta end Arsenal’s barren run?

Arteta’s Arsenal will be desperate to shed their tag as the side that has come up short in recent years.

The Gunners and their manager are seeking a first piece of silverware since they beat Chelsea in the 2020 FA Cup final, only nine months after he left Guardiola’s side as his assistant at City to take over at Emirates Stadium.

In that same period, Arteta’s managerial mentor Guardiola has a trophy haul of the Champions League, four Premier League titles, the FA Cup and the EFL Cup, as well as the Uefa Super Cup and Fifa Club World Cup.

Arsenal, since Arteta last tasted success, have lost in the Europa League semi-final to Villarreal in 2021, EFL Cup semi-finals in 2022 and 2025 to Liverpool and Newcastle United respectively, as well as last season’s Champions League semi-final against eventual winners Paris St-Germain.

The Gunners have finally broken that pattern to reach a final, but Arteta must also release Guardiola’s stranglehold, having only won four of their past 16 meetings against him – including the Community Shield in 2023 – while losing nine.

This suggests it is Arteta who is in urgent need of breaking the cycle of finishing empty-handed.

Former Arsenal and England defender Matt Upson told BBC Sport: “I think overall, Arteta needs it most because he has not won enough trophies in his time at Arsenal for how well they have done.

“It has been a case of ‘nearly but not quite’ for Arteta after the seasons in which they have finished second in the Premier League. They have not quite got there, so this is a big one for Arteta.

“I think Arteta and Guardiola need it for very different reasons, but I feel Arteta needs it more because he needs to put some silverware in the trophy cabinet.

“The overall pressure is on Arteta, but it is also fair to say the short-term pressure is on Guardiola. It is very important City get that win to try and at least dent Arsenal’s confidence. That would be really helpful for them in the last eight games of the season.”

Former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha says victory could still be of huge significance to his former club.

“City have just had the pain of defeat in the Champions League, but they can use that in the Carabao Cup final to express how much going out to Real has hurt them, and potentially take that and use it at Wembley,” he said.

“This is 100% a great occasion for them to bounce back, and to be able to potentially sign off with the last game before the international break lifting a trophy can change your perspective on the whole season significantly.”

Will Wembley match shape title battle?

Arsenal are in a commanding position to win their first Premier League title since Arsene Wenger’s ‘Invincibles’ in 2003-04, as they stand nine points clear of City having played one game more.

The Gunners have been relentless, while City have faltered by dropping points in draws against relegation strugglers Nottingham Forest and West Ham United in their past two league games.

So could Sunday’s Wembley showpiece have a defining impact on the rest of the season?

Upson does not believe defeat will damage Arteta’s side, saying: “Arsenal have shown me they have a good enough foundation. They know what they’re about. I don’t think a defeat, if they do lose, will damage their title chances or impact the title race.

“I think their foundation is too strong. If they lost, I don’t think it will derail them.”

Upson added: “Victory for Arsenal, on the other hand, would be huge. It would just be like confirmation of where they’re at. To beat City in a Wembley final would be massive. It would be a big psychological blow – more to City than vice-versa.

“Arsenal’s style has been criticised but they shouldn’t care and I don’t think they do.

“Arteta has looked at it and asked himself, ‘how are we definitely going to win the Premier League?’ If it has to be like this they are going to do it unapologetically. It is ingrained in the players and they are winning.”

Former Arsenal and England forward Theo Walcott told BBC Radio 5 Live’s Monday Night Club he believes the occasion could shape the immediate future for his old club.

“That’s the game,” said Walcott. “That’s the one that essentially sets the tone for how this whole year is going to look for Arsenal.

“I think Manchester City will drop points. I think Arsenal will still drop points. It’s that cup final in between.”

Onuoha said: “From a City perspective, you do get the feeling their season could go either way here. They are obviously not out of the title race, but are out of the Champions League.

“If they were to potentially lose the final, then the feeling going away for a couple of weeks would be difficult – but then contrast that with if they were to win that final at Wembley, against the team they are trying to chase in the league. To be able to get that feel of them, to beat them, and to beat them at the home of football.

“That could be massive. On the flip side, it could be massive for Arsenal as well if they win. It is a really exciting game that carries huge significance for both teams.”

Who will emerge victorious at Wembley?

Upson feels this EFL Cup final falls into the “too close to call” category – but believes one factor makes him just favour Arsenal.

“It is as close to a 50-50 split as you can get,” he said. “I have to go Arsenal – just – because I think I pretty much know what sort of performance I’m going to get from them. I know what I’m going to see.

“City are still a fantastic team who have the quality to beat anyone when they get it right, but they are more unpredictable. They could be far better and win it, or they could be a bit sloppy defensively and concede a couple of sloppy goals.”

Onuoha said: “I am never confident about calling who will any game of football ever, especially not a final, because I think we have seen in finals that it is not always the team who plays the best football in the moment who wins. It can just be about finding a way to grind out a result.

“This season, so far, we’ve seen that Arsenal have been pretty much better than anyone else in the Premier League at doing that, finding a way to win games, but again this is a one-off game.

“From my perspective as a Blue, I know they can do it – and I hope they do it as well.” (BBC)

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