Weeks to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) date for commencement of primary elections by political parties, the political atmosphere in the country is already charged.

Our correspondents report there have been increase in cases of harassment of political opponents, thuggery, physical attacks on people, demolition of property belonging to opponents, tearing of campaign posters and pulling down of billboards belonging to rival camps.

Just yesterday, suspected political thugs disrupted the maiden meeting of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Young Women Forum in Eleme Local Government Area (LGA) of Rivers State.

Reports say the thugs stormed the venue in Alesa Eleme, dispersed supporters and destroyed canopies, loudspeakers, chairs and other equipment.

They alleged that the organisers had not obtained prior approval while INEC is yet to blow the whistle on political activities.

Former director of voter education at INEC, Mr Nick Dazang, recently raised an alarm that the incidences of violence are beyond mere coincidences.

“When an incident occurs for the first time, it is taken for a mere happenstance. When it happens again, it is construed as a coincidence. When it occurs a third time, it may be concluded that it is planned and it is deliberate. However, when the incident recurs like a decimal, most people are likely to be concerned.”

Former governor of Kano State and leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, also expressed concern over the rising incidence of political thuggery in Kano State.

He warned that the trend poses a serious threat to peace and democratic processes.

The former governor alleged that thugs were being imported from neighbouring Kaduna and Katsina states to perpetrate violence in Kano.

“I am aware of their plans, especially those who usually go and disperse our rallies and meetings, hitting our supporters with dangerous weapons. We all know that,” Kwankwaso said. He urged his supporters to remain peaceful but cautioned them to prepare for eventualities.

Our correspondents report that many states are under tension as the campaign period approaches. This has been worsened by threats by some political actors.

Yoruba Nation activist, Sunday Adeyemo, also known as Sunday Igboho, was quoted recently as warning opposition leaders; Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi against campaigning in the South-West for the 2027 presidential election.

He stated in a viral video that, “If you know that you are crazy, campaign for one Atiku or Obi in Yorubaland,” and vowed to ensure no other presidential candidate is presented in the South-West.

Last year, the governor of Edo State, Sen Monday Okpebholo, warned the Labour Party Presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, Mr. Peter Obi, not to step into Edo State without getting a clearance from him.

There was also a similar issue between Obi and the Benue State governor, Hyacinth Alia, over the former’s intention to visit Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp in the state.

Some youths who claimed to belong to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, in Bakassi LGA of Cross River State have also said they will not live to see opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) hold any public event in any parts of the local government area.

In a viral video which was secretly filmed, they launched attack on the ADC members at a venue they were to open as a new secretariat.

There have been more brazen incidences of politically induced violence within the year.

On August 30, 2025, suspected thugs disrupted the inauguration of the transition committee members of the coalition of opposition parties under the ADC in Kaduna State, attacking participants and vandalising property.

The committee brought together members of an All Progressives Congress (APC) faction opposed to the state leadership alongside the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Labour Party (LP), and the ADC.

The inauguration held in Kaduna descended into violence when hoodlums armed with cutlasses, clubs, and stones disrupted the proceedings, eyewitnesses said.

Despite the attacks, the inauguration continued, though under a tense atmosphere.

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who attended the event, condemned the attack, calling it “a dangerous descent into lawlessness”.

Hoodlums attack Malami in Kebbi

On September 1, 2025, a convoy belonging to the ADC leader in Kebbi State and former Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, came under attack by suspected political thugs in Birnin Kebbi.

The incident occurred shortly after Malami returned to the state on a condolence visit.

Witnesses said about 10 vehicles in his convoy were vandalised, while several of his supporters sustained injuries.

Malami, who served as Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice between 2015 and 2023, told journalists the attack was politically motivated.

In February, at least two persons were reportedly killed during the ward congress of the APC in Idanre, Ondo State, as violence erupted in parts of the local government area.

Several others sustained varying degrees of injuries in the crisis, which also resulted in the burning of a vehicle.

The disturbance disrupted the conduct of the congress in some wards, as hoodlums allegedly attacked party members who had gathered for the exercise.

Our correspondent also reports the disruption of political events in churches, isolated attacks on political figures and political parties’ supporters engaging in social media threats in Benue State.

Residents who spoke about these developments admitted that the current political tension could snowball into full blown violence if not urgently addressed.

Pius Ejembi noted that the recent disruption of a church service in Vandeikya Local Government Area of the state has become a pointer in the unfolding tension.

He said the incident, which occurred during a thanksgiving service attended by Senator Emmanuel Udende, depicted suspected youths who invaded the premises, caused panic and destroyed property.

Our correspondent, however, reports that while accounts of what transpired in the Vandekiya incident differ sharply, the political undertones of the incident are unmistakable.

Last week, a PDP media consultant’s vehicle was burnt by armed men on motorcycles. There have also been disruptions in churches in areas like Naka and Konshisha.

In Bauchi, the trend of armed youths following politicians and attending political gatherings as well as public functions has not only continued but increased beyond proportion.

The thugs which comprise of unemployed youths, hoodlums popularly known as Sara-suka thugs and other miscreants are being recruited by political chieftains across political parties to intimidate passive opponents, Weekend Trust gathered.

The situation has compelled many political office holders and chieftains including elected officials in Bauchi to shun public gatherings like marriage, naming ceremonies and in some instances commissioning of projects.

Findings indicate that elected officials now attend public functions with heavy security, while in most instances they assign their aides to represent them to commission the projects or other events.

Our correspondent observed that even the state government’s public gatherings is now covered by heavy security presence with police and other security agencies including vigilantes and hunters to protect officials from the thugs who swarm the events across the state.

Former House of Representatives member who represented Katagum Federal Constituency, between 2015-2019, Ibrahim Mohammed Baba, was attacked and wounded at the APC Secretariat by suspected thugs during the just concluded All Progressives Congress (APC) party congress in the state.

Early signs in Oyo, Ondo

On March 7, political violence rocked parts of Oyo State amid local government congresses held by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faction loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Nyesom Wike.

There are two PDP factions in the state. One faction is loyal to the state governor, Seyi Makinde, while the other one is loyal to Wike.

The Wike-led faction organised its local government congresses which turned violent leading to attacks on several persons. About 25 people were said to have been injured.

Properties, including houses and vehicles, were vandalised in some of the local government areas.

Some of the local government areas where attacks have been reported are; Ibadan North, Ido, Ibarapa Central, Akinyele and Ogbomoso North.

It was reported that the residence of a former governor of the state, Barrister Hazim Gbolarumi located at Bodija in Ibadan North Local Government Area, was attacked. It was further gathered that properties worth millions of Naira were destroyed in the building.

Chairman of the Wike-led PDP faction in Oyo, Professor Abdulrahman Akinoso, said “There may be a need to upgrade the damages. More than 25 vehicles have been reported damaged. They are moving round the local governments, attacking individuals at home. Buildings were damaged,” he said.

Public Relations Officer of the Oyo State Police Command, Olayinka Ayanlade, confirmed the incident.

Similarly, voters in Rivers and Bayelsa State, have expressed fears over the early signs of violence, especially as political activities continue.

It was observed that Rivers State in particular, has already been seen as a flash point ahead of the polls, as the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara and the Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, former Governor Rotimi Amaechi and their supporters fight for the supremacy in the political control of the state.

Many who spoke with Weekend Trust, said if the trend of violence and threats continue, they may not come out on the election day.

“Nobody wants to come out and be killed in an election that will benefit only a few”, a respondent said.

In early March, the convoy of Amaechi was attacked by hoodlums on his way to Ubima ward 8, in Ikwerre LGA to take part in the e-registration exercise of the ADC.

The ADC secretariat in the ward was also set ablaze a night before Amaechi arrived the area amidst heavy shooting.

Similarly, tension flared in Alesa community, Eleme Local Government Area of Rivers State, when a group who identifying themselves as Chief Security Officers disrupted an event organised by the ADC.

Weekend Trust gathered that the incident occurred shortly after banners for the programme were mounted and proceedings were about to begin.

It was gathered that a similar incident occurred in Igwuruta, Ikwerre Local Government Area, a few days ago, raising concerns about a pattern of repeated disruptions targeting the party’s activities across the state.

The hoodlums, who reportedly invaded the community with heavy firepower to stop the former governor’s visit, shot sporadically into the community and riddled the gate of Amaechi’s family house with bullets.

Dazang listed some of the incidences that call for concern to include the disruption of an ADC inauguration meeting in Kaduna in August 2025; thugs setting fire to the ADC Secretariat at Ado-Ekiti in October 2025 and the invasion of ADC secretariat in Edo in February 2026.

He added that shortly before the conduct of the 2022 Anambra State off-cycle governorship election, INEC offices were razed in that state and others adjoining it.

Looking back

Political intolerance leading to violence has been around for some time. Historians recall how in the 1st Republic, violence erupted in the Western Region leading to the declaration of a state of emergency and other incidences of mayhem in many parts of the country during the 2nd Republic, including states like Kano and Ondo.

Since 1999, violence has accompanied every cycle of elections.

Over the years, individuals, non -governmental organisations and foreign observers have expressed concern over the violence and have initiated moves to have it curbed.

A report on violence during the 2015 elections estimated that 160 people were killed in the various election clashes.

For 2019, a study revealed 2, 177 cases of violence across Nigeria, while in the 2023 election, there were reports that violence disrupted voting in over 20 states across the country.

Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) executive director, Bukola Idowu, while presenting the report on the 2025 Anambra election, said the organisation recorded 122 incidents of violence before election day, of which 91 were non-electoral in nature, adding that of the 130 fatalities documented during the pre-election period,128 were attributed to non-electoral violence while two were electoral violence.

Our correspondent recalls that it was in order to forestall election violence that the National Peace Commission (NPC) chaired by a former Nigerian head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, was formed.

For over a decade now, it has facilitated dialogue and reduced tension between political parties, raised early warning alarms; met with key actors; addressed allegations of electoral misconduct, discouraged negative campaign tactics and engaged in troubleshooting in local hot spots.

Effects of early violence

A voter in Rivers State, Tamuno Dike, said he had already seen the early signs and will not bother to go out to vote, except good security measures are put in place.

He said: “The way it’s going, it’s either you are in APC or PDP before you will be safe during the election. For voters who may have contrary consideration, they will face challenges,” he said.

‘Violence threat may cause voters’ apathy’

Some political analysts in Rivers and Bayelsa states, said the trend being promoted by the ruling party which veers towards one party system would have negative effects on the country’s electoral process.

A political analyst, Dr. Fyneface Dumnamene, said politicians are encouraging violence to prove to the president that they control the politics.

He said: “Why there is going to be violence in Rivers State during the general election is because those that thought they control the politics of the state don’t allow any other political party to operate. They are trying to prove to the president that they control the politics of Rivers State, both the APC and PDP, and as a result of that, they don’t want ADC to show face.

“When violence begins to surface like this, then people will not come out to vote, people will not participate in the process. So, you will not have those who are none partisans participating in the process. It is only those who are involved in the parties that will participate in the process.

“This will affect the choice of good leaders, because it will not allow people to really express their minds, to choose someone that will represent them. Those that would emerge will be those that the political parties have fronted from the primaries and supported.

“Police and other security agencies have a big role to play here, they should ensure that every political party is allowed to carry out its activities within the ambit of the law, INEC should also emphasis level playing field for every political party and Mr President should also make comments; to tell people that there is no need attacking anybody”, he said.

A pro-democracy advocate and human rights activist, David-West Benewarie David, said Nigeria needs peaceful, free and fair elections in 2027, urging the INEC and security agencies to step up their operations in curbing violence ahead of the elections.

He said: “As a matter of fact, those of us who are from the civil society angle, we need nothing more than very peaceful, free and fair elections come 2027. The idea of violence during elections, as a country, we should have outgrown that stage. From fillers we have seen, issues of threat and attacks are on opposition parties.

Signs should not be ignored

A retired senior officer of the Department of State Services (DSS), Orgem Angulum, warned that the current signs should not be ignored.

He pointed to underlying rivalries within major political parties as potential trigger for violence, citing in particular, the perceived rift within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the states as a factor that could escalate tensions if left unresolved.

According to him, early intervention remains the most effective way to prevent electoral violence because the indicators – political intolerance, factionalisation, and the use of informal groups – to assert dominance are quite visible.

“If these issues are not addressed now, they could escalate beyond control,” he said.

Angulum emphasised the need for political parties, particularly major ones, to resolve internal conflicts and promote dialogue among stakeholders.

“The ruling party (APC) and the major opposition (PDP) must put their houses in order. Electoral violence often stems from unresolved grievances within parties. There must be deliberate efforts to build consensus and reduce tension,” he added.

Angulum also called for a stakeholders approach involving security agencies, community leaders and civil society organisations to develop a preventive framework ahead of the elections. (Daily Trust)

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