US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential monthslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution and dependent at least in part on what lengths President Donald Trump is willing to go to force the Iranian regime’s hand, multiple administration and intelligence officials tell CNN.

“One of the core conundrums of this conflict is the Iranians have real leverage with this, and there’s not an obvious fix for it,” an intelligence official said of efforts to reopen the strait.

A recent internal assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that was circulating inside the Pentagon in recent weeks determined that Iran could potentially keep the passage shut for anywhere from one to six months, four sources familiar with the document told CNN. But White House and Pentagon officials insisted that the assessment — particularly the longer end timeframe, which some consider a worst-case scenario — was not being seriously considered.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had not seen it, and Trump has not been briefed on it, nor was he using it to inform his policy decisions, one senior White House official said.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement that the Defense Intelligence Agency was “one of many intelligence agencies at the Pentagon that plans for every worst possible outcome.”

“One assessment does not mean the assessment is plausible, and it’s dangerous for the media to cherry pick the worst case scenario to scare the American people,” Parnell said. “I have been present for every briefing on this matter, and the six month closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an impossibility and completely unacceptable to the Secretary of War. The Pentagon was well prepared for the Iranian regimes attempts to close the Strait, and we are working to address this challenge at the direction of the Commander in Chief.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: “As the White House has long maintained, President Trump and his national security team were well prepared for the Iranian regime’s attempts to close the Strait, and the U.S. military is zeroed in on systematically eliminating the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to disrupt the free flow of energy.”

The Defense Intelligence Agency said in a statement, “DIA can neither confirm nor deny the alleged referenced assessment.”

The variables for how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed shift on an almost daily basis, the intelligence and administration officials told CNN, as the US and Israeli military operations continue to damage Iran’s capabilities to launch attacks. The timeline of the closure, the officials said, depends in part on how much those attacks are able to impact the Iranians’ weapons stockpiles and the lack of certainty around Iran’s remaining military capabilities.

The US has stepped up military efforts to clear the strait, with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine this week detailing a number of weapons systems used to counter Iranian drone attacks and control the passage. Among them was an A-10 Warthog to attack ships in the strait.

The US has undeniably damaged Iran’s capabilities, but its short-range missile stockpile has not been completely destroyed, top Pentagon officials have said, though a White House official stressed that the war is only in week three of an anticipated four-to-six week timeline. And while the US and Israel have found success wiping out Iran’s navy and missile arsenal, the country still has other options in targeting tankers transiting the strait, according to western officials. That includes smaller craft, small submarines and even jet skis, the officials said. The smaller crafts could potentially be packed with explosives to inflict damage on tankers during suicide missions.

Even if the US is successful in taking out Iran’s missile and drone making abilities, the risks from the smaller, rougher operations could remain for weeks, the officials said. Escort missions through the strait would require several destroyers per tanker. And one source said the Iranians still have extensive ability to lay mines with smaller boats.

Trump, too, cannot simply order ships to transit the strait, meaning the US must prove in a way that gives peace of mind to those deciding whether to take the risk that Iran’s capability is either destroyed, or say with near certainty that the threat can be mitigated, sources said.

Boots on the ground

CNN has previously reported that the Trump administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to choke off the key passageway, believing the move would hurt Iran as much or more than it would the US. But now that Iran has taken the gamble, the US has to confront the reality that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a far greater challenge than the other objectives laid out by the administration for the war, the officials said.

“Unlike the air dominance of Iran, which was essentially inevitable, this oil issue is different. The spectrum of potential outcomes is way broader, and the outcome to fix the strait is not inevitable at this point,” one intelligence official said.

Trump unsuccessfully sought an international coalition to police the strait, blasting allies over their reluctance and musing publicly he might just leave the matter in their hands after having “finished off” Iran.

“That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!” he wrote on Truth Social.

One challenge is geographical: the strait is nearly 100 miles long. Trump could send US troops to islands in the strait itself, which would provide strategic positioning to intercept Iranian boats or missiles. But it would also make for a risky mission putting American lives at risk.

“People totally underestimate just how vast the strait is. Logistically, it’s such a long shoreline, some 100 miles, that it’s difficult to do any one thing to effectively neuter the threat from Iran,” the intelligence official added. “The Iranians can be set up anywhere along the shoreline.”

Then there are the leverage points that might persuade Iran to back off. Among those that officials have weighed privately: capturing Kharg Island — an economic lifeline for Iran that handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports — or effectively wiping out the island’s oil infrastructure.

Multiple officials described the US military’s attack on Kharg Island last week as a signal to Iran at how far Trump is willing to go to weaken the regime. The island is internally viewed as a key leverage point that could, potentially, force Iran to agree to reopen the strait.

“(The attack on) Kharg Island was a signal, but the question is what is (the president) willing to do to make the Iranians go, ‘This is no longer in our interest to keep this as a chokepoint.’ Because that’s what it’s going to take,” the intelligence official said.

White House officials believe that taking Kharg Island would “totally bankrupt” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, one official said, and could potentially lead to a swift end of the war. But many inside the administration are wary of such a move, particularly given it would require a significant number of ground troops to achieve. On Thursday in the Oval Office, Trump said he was “not putting troops anywhere.”

“If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you, but I’m not putting troops,” he told reporters.

The strait’s closure, meanwhile, is having significant political and economic implications back home.

Oil prices have continued to rise as the strait remains closed, with average gas prices in the US steadily ticking higher. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil travels through it, and the administration has struggled with solutions to make up for the dwindling supply. (CNN)

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