The simmering build-up to the 2027 general elections is rapidly giving way to an expansive and high-stakes succession season in at least 10 states, as governors in their final terms prepare to exit and a new generation of political actors moves to take their place.

Governors Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos), Dapo Abiodun (Ogun), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Mai Mala Buni (Yobe), Babagana Zulum (Borno), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), and AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara) are in the final lap of their constitutionally permitted two-term, four-year tenures, and the battle for their successors has begun across the states.

From the South-West to the North-East, what is emerging is not a routine transition, but a complex web of ambition, rivalry, and shifting alliances, with dozens of aspirants already positioning across party lines.

In states like Oyo, Nasarawa, Lagos, Bauchi, and beyond, the early contours of these contests reveal a familiar but intensifying mix of factors—zoning disputes, internal party fractures, defections, and the outsized influence of incumbents. Beneath the surface of formal declarations, consultations have deepened, alignments are quietly forming, and the real battles—often within dominant parties—are already underway, long before voters are called to the polls.

In the aforementioned states, the emerging picture is one of crowded fields, fragile party cohesion, and strategic calculations driven by zoning, religion, and incumbency power.

The Independent National Electoral Commission has fixed January 16, 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections. Expectedly, some governors whose tenures will end on May 29, 2027, are likely to seek senatorial tickets.

According to the timetable released by the commission, however, their successors will be determined two weeks later, on February 6, 2027.

The strength of political parties, alongside the influence of incumbents, is likely to shape the outcome of the succession contests.

Except in Oyo and Bauchi states, where the ruling Peoples Democratic Party is grappling with internal crises, other states are predominantly controlled by the All Progressives Congress.

LAGOS

With 2027 setting in, early permutations in Lagos suggest that the real contest may not be between political parties, but within the ruling APC.

Continued dominance of the APC under President Bola Tinubu shapes the state’s political trajectory, suggesting that securing the party’s ticket is key to succeeding Sanwo-Olu.

Discussions about who succeeds the incumbent as Lagos governor remain in hushed tones.

Since 1999, the state has been governed by the Tinubu political family. The President had governed the state from 1999-2007, former Governor Babatunde Fashola from 2007-2015, ex-Governor Akinwunmi Ambode from 2015-2019; and the incumbent’s tenure, which began in 2019, is billed to expire on May 29, 2027.

Since 1999, political parties aligned with Tinubu — the Alliance for Democracy, Action Congress, Action Congress of Nigeria, and now the APC — have consistently produced the state’s governor, and 2027 is not expected to be any different.

Efforts by the opposition to dislodge the APC have largely faltered, as only the PDP and Labour Party (in the 2023 presidential election) have made attempts to wrest power from the ruling APC.

The African Democratic Congress, branded as the new opposition, has not been convincing enough about its capability to upstage the APC in Lagos State, even with the influence of its National Secretary and former Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola.

The dwindling fortune of the opposition parties in the country, especially since the 2023 election, will convincingly earn the APC another shot at the governor’s seat.

Only a few opposition members have declared their interest in running in the 2027 election. Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, who was the governorship candidate of the LP in the 2023 election, has joined the ADC and has expressed his desire to run again for governorship in 2027.

Similarly, a former House of Representatives candidate, Naheem Balogun, also declared interest.

For the PDP, leading the pack is Funso Doherty, who ran for governorship under the ADC in 2023. There is also a businessman and entrepreneur, Laja Adeoye.

However, these parties presently appear weak ahead of the 2027 elections and would have a lot of ground to cover and hope that the odds are in their favour to win in a state that has been so dominated by the ruling APC.

For the APC, Mr Jide Adediran, popularly called Jandor, and Mr Samuel Ajose, fondly called SMA, have declared their intentions to run on the platform of the party for the 2027 governorship in Lagos State.

Jandor, known for his “Lagos for Lagos” slogan, was the PDP’s governorship candidate in the 2023 election, but defected to the APC to pursue his governorship ambition again.

Ajose continues to boast of the support of the people of Badagry zone, who say, “Badagry lo kan.” He recently organised a rally for the anticipated second term bid of President Tinubu.

Interestingly, both Adediran and Ajose are from the Badagry administrative division of Lagos. While Jandor preaches Lagos for Lagos, SMA preaches Lagos for All.

Beyond the declared aspirants, several influential figures are believed to be quietly consulting. Among those touted as interested in the Lagos governorship is the former governor, Ambode, who the people of Epe demand be allowed to return for another four years, just like his predecessors, who served for eight years.

The Speaker of the House of Assembly, Mudasiru Obasa, also boasts of vast political experience, having been the number one lawmaker in the state since 2015. The people of Agege constituency have declared their desire to rally support for their own should he get the ticket.

Obasa is seen as a strongman of Lagos politics, having been able to return as Speaker after he was removed. While those forces which masterminded his removal remain, some observers note that Obasa’s political prowess may be needed for the APC to record success in the 2027 election.

The current Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa, recently denied declaring for governorship. However, political watchers note that this is not an unusual position for someone eyeing a position and does not want to be portrayed as too desperate, considering that he is presently occupying public office as minister.

Alausa has continued to get closer to home in recent times, as he chaired a recent event of the indigenes of Epe. This, many note, is part of consultations with his own people to boost his chances of being talked about by Lagos stakeholders when a decision on the candidate is to be taken.

The Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, has continued to invest in his Surulere constituency as his infrastructural projects litter the constituency. Having also been Speaker of the House of Representatives, Gbajabiamila would also fancy his chances.

The incumbent deputy governor, Obafemi Hamzat, also boasts of experience, having been around government circles for a while and also coming from a family respected in political circles.

Many have also spoken about his loyalty and down-to-earth nature, which also put him up for consideration.

The Chief of Staff to the Governor, Mr Tayo Ayinde, is also being spoken about in political circles as a potential candidate.

Also being touted is the Principal Secretary to the President, Hakeem Muri-Okunola. Okunola has served Tinubu for many years, as he was a personal assistant to the president when he was governor of Lagos State. He is seen as being among the kitchen cabinet of the President.

Also, there is a campaign about the President’s son, Seyi Tinubu, seeking the governorship ticket. But many dismiss Seyi’s ambition, noting that he is only bringing himself into the limelight ahead of subsequent elections after 2027.

There are also chances that the senator representing Lagos East senatorial district, Tokunbo Abiru, may be eyeing the governorship.

Analysts note that many of the potential contenders are technocrats rather than career politicians, a trend consistent with Lagos’ leadership pattern since 1999.

Zoning considerations may not be decisive, as party cohesion has historically overridden regional balancing within the APC.

But, beyond the permutations, the man to decide who gets the Lagos APC governorship ticket is the President. Many party insiders believe the most decisive factor remains Tinubu’s influence.

While the Governor’s Advisory Council and other party stakeholders are expected to play key roles, the President is widely regarded as the dominant voice in determining the party’s candidate.

OYO

In Oyo State, the race to succeed Governor Makinde in 2027 is no longer a quiet undercurrent. It is fast becoming a defining political moment, shaped by a crowded field of aspirants, deepening consultations, and a subtle but unmistakable shift in the state’s power equation.

With Makinde set to complete his second term, the question is no longer whether a contest will emerge, but how intense, fragmented, and consequential it will be.

At the centre of this unfolding and intriguing drama is the ruling PDP, which currently holds a structural advantage but faces the burden of managing in-house issues and ambition within its own ranks.

Unlike previous cycles where a clear frontrunner often emerged early, the PDP is witnessing a diffusion of power, with multiple aspirants building influence simultaneously, each representing different strands of the party’s growing identity.

Among them is Dr Nureni Adeniran, whose position as Chairman of the State Universal Basic Education Board has quietly given him one of the widest grassroots “footprints” in the state.

Through the education system, he has cultivated relationships across local governments, positioning himself not just as a technocrat but as a political actor with reach into rural communities.

In contrast, Adebo Ogundoyin represents a different kind of momentum. As Speaker of the state House of Assembly, he sits at the intersection of legislation and executive cooperation, benefiting from proximity to the governor while also projecting generational renewal.

His appeal is strongest among younger political actors and segments of the elite who see him as a bridge between continuity and a new political style. However, questions remain about whether his influence within the legislature can translate into statewide electoral dominance.

The Chief of Staff to the Governor, Segun Ogunwuyi, is being touted in political circles as capable of succeeding Makinde. A former member of the House of Representatives, Ogunwuyi, is believed to be representing the Ogbomoso Project 2027.

For his supporters, though he has not declared his intention, they believe his candidature would strengthen the outgoing administration and improve on its successes.

There is also Dr Debo Akande, who holds several positions in the Makinde government. He is Executive Adviser on Agribusiness to the Governor; Director General, Oyo State Agribusiness Development Agency; and Executive Adviser, International Cooperation and Development. He has mostly been instrumental in driving international partnerships and collaborations for the state, especially relating to agribusiness.

He is usually the right-hand man whenever the governor embarks on foreign trips or hosts international investors, both at home and abroad.

Another emerging actor is a former commissioner for finance during the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi’s second term, Bimbo Adekanmbi. A technocrat he is, but he’s gaining momentum from his Ona Ara Local Government Area base since joining the PDP earlier this year. He was the chairman of the committee that worked on the upgrade of Ibadan airport to an international status.

The re-emergence of Taofeek Arapaja adds another layer of complexity. A former deputy governor and a seasoned party strategist, Arapaja brings institutional memory and national-level connections into the race.

His strength lies in his deep roots within the PDP’s traditional structure, particularly among older party stakeholders who value loyalty and long-term commitment.

However, in a contest increasingly influenced by visibility and populist engagement, his challenge will be to reconnect with a broader electorate beyond the party’s core base.

Also, Adedeji Olajide, currently representing Ibadan North-West/Ibadan South-West Federal Constituency in the 10th Assembly. He has declared his intention to contest the governorship election under the PDP, with a commitment to succeed Makinde and build on his achievements for greater development across the state.

Equally significant is the quiet but persistent presence of Femi Babalola, whose influence may not always dominate headlines but remains embedded within the party’s internal machinery. His long-standing involvement in party affairs positions him as a consensus builder, though whether that translates into frontline candidacy or kingmaker status remains to be seen.

Alongside him, figures like Olufemi Ajadi, who has previously tested the electoral waters in Ogun State before relocating to Oyo last year, and Beulah Adeoye reflect a widening field that blends political experience with fresh ambition.

Insiders within the party acknowledge, albeit cautiously, that consultations around succession have intensified, with aspirants engaging key stakeholders, local government leaders, and influential blocs in what is shaping up to be a carefully managed but highly competitive internal process.

The PDP is, however, facing the uphill task as the party is struggling with an internal crisis, being led on one hand by Makinde and Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi and on the other hand by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.

A faction loyal to Wike in the state is being led by another former deputy governor, Gbolarumi Hazeem.

The opposition All Progressives Congress in Oyo State faces the dilemma of harnessing its array of aspirants into a coherent, united front.

The party enters the 2027 conversation with renewed energy, although the “unresolved” internal tensions that have historically undermined its chances in the state remain.

At the forefront is the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, whose current role at the federal level has significantly elevated his profile. His previous governorship bid and technocratic background position him as a candidate capable of bridging policy expertise with political ambition.

The last week of March will, however, determine if he is still interested in the race, with a March 31, 2026, deadline to resign from office to pursue political ambition as directed by the President.

Also of equal influence in the state is Teslim Folarin, the party’s 2023 governorship candidate. Folarin’s strength lies in his longstanding networks and electoral experience, but his repeated bids raise questions about whether the party will once again rally behind him or seek a fresh face to rebrand its appeal.

Beyond the two heavyweights, the APC field is remarkably expansive. Figures like the senator representing Oyo South, Sharafadeen Ali and his Oyo North counterpart, Abdulfatai Buhari, are equally eyeing the governorship.

Buhari, a member of the eighth, ninth and 10th Senate, is reportedly not seeking another term in the Senate, to allow the Oke Ogun bloc to occupy the seat.

Equally interested is the member of the House of Representatives representing Ido Federal Constituency, Remi Oseni. The presence of former deputy governor, Rauf Olaniyan, alongside established political actors such as Akeem Agbaje, Adebayo Shittu, Azeez Adeduntan, Saheed Oladele, and Gbenga Adegbola, highlights the party’s depth.

Also, Kunle Busari, the son of the late Ibadan strong politician in the First and Second Republic, Chief Busari Adelakun, popularly called Eruobodo, declared his ambition for the governorship race under the APC

He made the declaration at Methodist Primary School, Oke-Adu, Agodi-Gate in Ibadan North Local Government Area of the state, on Thursday.

The 2027 race is also witnessing the rise of unconventional actors. Figures like Adegboyega Taofeek of the ADC are drawing on grassroots and traditional networks, while the proprietor of Agidigbo FM, Oriyomi Hamzat of Accord, leveraging his media influence, represents a new form of political capital rooted in public visibility and direct audience connection.

In Oyo, however, there are major issues over who succeeds Makinde. The incumbent is of the Ibadan bloc and a Christian. There is the agitation to have a Muslim to succeed him, while the Oke Ogun, Ogbomoso and Ibarapa zones are positioning to occupy the Agodi Government House.

NASARAWA

Findings indicate that there are currently no fewer than 30 aspirants from various political parties vying for the governorship position in 2027.

Among the governorship aspirants are political heavyweights, technocrats, and businessmen who have contributed, and still contribute meaningfully to the growth and development of the state.

The main political parties with aspirants vying for the state’s top position include the ruling APC, PDP, Social Democratic Party, ADC, New Nigeria People’s Party, LP, and Action Alliance.

Some notable 2027 aspirants from the Nasarawa North Senatorial District, where the incumbent governor hails from, include Gen Nuhu Bala Angbazo – Nassarawa Eggon Local Government Area, ADC; Danladi Halilu Evulanza – Nassarawa Eggon LGA, APC; Julius Ojo Eggon – Nassarawa Eggon, APC; Chris Mamman, Nassarawa Eggon, LP; Ayuba Umar, Akwanga, ADC; Silas Ali Agara, Akwanga, APC; and David Emmanuel Ombugadu, APC.

The Western Zone have aspirants like Shehu Tukur, Keffi LGA, APC; Aliyu Ahmed Wadada, Keffi, (formerly SDP, now APC); Dr Kabir El-Bashir, Keffi, APC; Prof Mohammed Sani Haruna, Karu, APC; Mohammed Hassan Abdullahi, Karu, ADC; Jonathan Gaza Gbefwi, Karu, SDP; Stephen Joseph, Karu, AA; Dr Tanimu Adabson, Karu, APC; Prof Abdulkareem Kana – Kokona, APC; Dr Zakka Ledwi Yakubu, Kokona, APC; Jafar Ibrahim, Toto, PDP; Dr Faisal Shuaib, Toto, APC; Dr Ahmed Musa Mohammed, Nasarawa, APC, and Alhaji Musa Mohammed Maikaya, Toto, APC.

The Southern Zone has the line-up of aspirants such as Abubakar Nalaraba, Keana LGA, APC; Alhaji Abubakar Giza, Keana LGA, APC; Saleh Osude Sadiq, Keana, (not decided), Alhaji Jibrin Sabo Keana, Keana, ADC; IG Mohammed Adamu, Lafia, APC; Dr Joseph Haruna Kigbu, Lafia, APC; Alhaji Abdullahi Yakubu Maidoya, Lafia, NNPP; Bukhairi Nata’allah, Lafia; Dr Hassan Mohammed Liman (SAN), Lafia, APC; Alhaji Mohammed Shehu, Lafia, APC; Zaidu Aliyu Dalhatu, Lafia; Dr Ishaku Adamu Akyala, Obi, ADC; Abdullahi Mohammed Wada, Doma, ADC; Senator Mohammed Ogoshi Onawo – Doma, ADC.

The latest political happening in Nasarawa State is the defection of a two-time governorship candidate of the PDP, David Ombugadu, to the APC.

His defection news was received with great shock by members and supporters in PDP, given the massive support he had received while pursuing his governorship ambition in the party.

Ombugadu has, however, declared his intention to contest for the governorship election under the platform of the APC despite being from the same senatorial zone (Nasarawa North) as the incumbent.

As the primary elections draw nearer, it is expected that some of the aspirants will step down for others or emerge as frontrunners to the actual winners in the various political parties.

Due to the state’s multi-ethnic and multi-religious makeup, which significantly influences voter preferences, many of the aspirants could be relying on ethnic and religious affiliations and sectional support rather than their individual merits.

Governor Sule has, however, maintained that he has not endorsed any candidate and will abide by the gentleman zoning arrangement in the state for fairness and equity.

He emphasised that consultation with stakeholders to pick a candidate who can deliver for the APC is ongoing, noting that he will support only a politician who has the capacity to win the governorship election.

A political disagreement seems to be ongoing between ex-Governor Tanko Al-Makura and the incumbent governor over the zoning of the governorship seat in 2027.

While Al-Makura wants the position to be thrown open, the incumbent governor differs, as he believes that, being a beneficiary of the zoning arrangement, the status quo should be maintained.

Sule reportedly told stakeholders from Toto LG who paid him a courtesy call recently that he is often misunderstood by some stakeholders when he said he is a product of zoning and wants zoning to be maintained.

“Today, I am totally misunderstood in this state by some stakeholders because I said I am a product of zoning, and I also want to support zoning to continue.

“When I make such a comment, I am not denying any zone or anybody any opportunity. Everybody has the right.

“As long as you are a son or daughter of this state, you have the right to contest and show interest in being the governor. Nobody can stop you.

“But I am just saying that, as A. A. Sule, if it were up to me, I would like to support somebody from that zone because that is the zone that can actually produce the next governor,” he said.

Sule’s insistence on zoning is reportedly backed by the first civilian governor of the state and former national chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Adamu.

Opposition parties like the PDP, SDP, NNPP, LP, and ADC face their own challenges, rebuilding after losing members and needing to remobilise their base.

The PDP, a major opposition party in Nasarawa State, has lost members to the APC and ADC, potentially weakening its membership.

BAUCHI

The political landscape in Bauchi is becoming increasingly tense and unpredictable, amid growing speculation over a possible defection of the governor and a surge of governorship aspirants across party lines.

Media reports have it that among the conditions given to the governor for his defection is that he would not produce his successor, but would be given the senatorial ticket to return to the National Assembly in 2027.

The governor has, however, dismissed the defection speculation, insisting he remained a PDP member.

For the governor, one of his able lieutenants and possible successors is the embattled Commissioner for Finance, Yakubu Adamu, who is facing alleged terrorism financing charges in court.

The APC in Bauchi is reportedly attracting a significant number of aspirants, many of whom are banking on federal backing and the possibility of defections from other parties to strengthen their chances.

For example, the Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof Ali Pate; Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar; the senator representing Bauchi South Senatorial District, Shehu Buba; and a former NNPC official, Bala Wunti, are all speculated to be contenders on the APC platform.

The former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, is not considered a strong contestant for the governorship, given the strength of his federal constituency.

For the ADC, the candidate of the APC in the 2023 governorship election, Air Marshal Abubakar Sadique, is likely set to recontest the governorship.

Again, zoning and regional dynamics are expected to play a decisive role in determining the next governor, with Bauchi South and Central senatorial districts maintaining dominance in the state’s political history.

Since 1999, these zones have largely produced governors, a trend believed to continue due to their political strength and established structures.

Bauchi North often struggles to build statewide political networks capable of competing effectively, further reinforcing the dominance of the southern and central blocs.

OGUN

Ogun State, no fewer than 10 politicians have shown interest in succeeding Governor Abiodun by May 29, 2027.

Some of the leading candidates from the ruling APC include the senator representing Ogun West at the Senate, Solomon Adeola, fondly called Yayi; a Chartered Accountant and First Class graduate of Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, currently representing Imeko-Afon/Yewa North federal constituency at the House of Representatives, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka; and the daughter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the senator who represented Ogun Central between 2007 and 2011, Prof Iyabo Obasanjo.

Others are the immediate past Nigerian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Amb Sarafadeen Ishola; former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr Tunde Lemo; a former two-term federal lawmaker representing Obafemi-Owode/Abeokuta North/Odeda federal constituency, Kayode Amusan, and a popular broadcast sports journalist and cousin to the outgoing governor, Modele Sarafa-Yusuf.

Recall that Sarafa-Yusuf had in 2022 resigned her appointment as media aide to Abiodun to contest the APC governorship ticket with the governor.

From the opposition parties, the leading figures include the 2023 governorship candidate of the PDP, Oladipupo Adebutu; the convener of The Alternative Movement, Segun Showunmi, former aide to ex-Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State, Jimi Lawal, whose governorship declaration on the platform of the ADC was reportedly disrupted by some hoodlums recently, as well as an ICT guru based in Canada, Biodun Ogundipe, also eyeing the ADC governorship ticket.

There is also a United States-based paediatrician, Dr Bolaji Marie Odusina, though she is yet to disclose her preferred party for the election.

The ruling party, which has been in government in the state for the past 15 years, currently parades seven aspirants who have shown enough reasons that they are actually ready to go the whole hog to take over the baton of governance.

In Ogun, however, there is the agitation that Ogun West senatorial district, which has yet to produce a governor since the creation of the state 50 years ago, should be allowed to produce Abiodun’s successor.

Two leading aspirants are from the zone, Adeola and Isiaka. On Wednesday, the 20 APC lawmakers in the state House of Assembly declared their support for Adeola, with other groups also drumming up support for the Ogun West senator.

There are reports that to ensure the zone field a consensus candidate, the party may offer Isiaka the senatorial ticket of Adeola.

An APC chieftain in the state, who pleaded anonymity, however, faulted the zone for lacking unity.

According to him, in 2011, former Governor Gbenga Daniel supported Isiaka from the zone against another candidate supported by former President Obasanjo, Gen Idowu Olutunji Olorin, leading to the loss to Senator Ibikunle Amosun at the time.

He recalled again that in 2019, Amosun supported Adekunle Akinlade, who was then representing Ipokia/Yewa South Federal Constituency. Isiaka also contested from the same axis, and in the end, the zone lost again.

The convener of Ogun West Initiative, a socio-political advocacy group, Bolaji Adeniji, however, said that it will amount to injustice if the Ogun West senatorial district is not allowed to produce the next governor of the state.

Adeniji said that “For 2027, the conversation about which zone to produce the governor should now be about who is the best bet from Ogun West to serve the state, because this is about equity, fairness and justice.”

It is believed that the support of ex-Governors Amosun and Daniel will help bolster the chances of whoever emerges as the candidate of the party.

A political analyst, Samuel Ogunyemi, said it would be difficult for the opposition parties, particularly the PDP, to dislodge the APC in the 2027 governorship race.

Ogunyemi said, “The only opposition party that may be said to have what it takes to challenge the APC in next year’s governorship elections is the PDP, but unfortunately, the party is fragmented.

“The party is also likely to field Ladi Adebutu, who was also its candidate in 2023.

“However, Adebutu, just like the outgoing governor, is from Iperu Remo. Does that mean other parts of the state did not have qualified candidates?”

The media aide to Adebutu, Afolabi Orekoya, dismissed the thought that the PDP was not ready for the 2027 challenge in the state.

“The truth is that PDP is producing the next governor of Ogun State. Our structures from the ward through the local government and to the state are intact.

The purported dissolution of the state party executives by the caretaker had since been withdrawn. And for the governorship candidate of the party, that will be unveiled after the party primaries,” he said

YOBE

Political activities in Yobe State have intensified significantly, as key actors across the political spectrum position themselves for what is shaping up to be a defining governorship contest.

Governor Buni, who is serving his second and constitutionally permitted final term, is expected to vacate office in 2027, setting the stage for a fierce succession battle within the ruling APC and a renewed push by opposition forces seeking relevance in the state.

The APC has maintained a firm grip on Yobe politics over the years, controlling virtually all elective positions, while opposition parties have struggled to establish a formidable presence.

The issue of zoning has once again resurfaced as a major point of contention in the state’s political discourse.

Since the return of democracy in 1999, Yobe East Senatorial District has largely dominated in producing the governor, with the exception of the late Mamman B. Ali from Yobe South, who governed briefly before his death in 2009.

Stakeholders and residents are, therefore, calling for power rotation to other zones, particularly Zones B and C.

Among the prominent figures being speculated to be eyeing the governorship seat is former Senate President, Ahmad Lawan. Although he has not formally declared his intention, his supporters have already begun mobilising across the state.

A member of one of his support groups described the growing momentum behind his potential candidacy.

“The Senate President has the experience, the political network, and the understanding of governance that Yobe State needs at this critical time, and that is why many of us have taken it upon ourselves to begin consultations and mobilisation across the state even before his formal declaration,” he said.

“The slogan ‘After Buni, Bade is next’ reflects the belief among his supporters that leadership should now shift in that direction, and we are committed to ensuring that this vision becomes a reality,” he added.

Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai, representing Yobe South, is also widely regarded as a formidable contender. Having previously aspired to the governorship before stepping down for Buni, Bomai has maintained a strong political base.

A party loyalist familiar with his political structure, Yusuf Maina, spoke on his chances.

“Senator Bomai remains one of the most consistent political figures in Yobe State, and his decision to step down in the past has only strengthened his goodwill among party members and supporters who believe that he deserves another opportunity to contest,” he said.

Senator Musa Mustapha, representing Yobe East, is another key figure whose name has featured prominently in succession discussions. There are indications that he may enjoy the backing of the incumbent governor.

A source close to the government revealed ongoing political calculations.

“There are strong indications that the governor is considering continuity in terms of leadership style and political direction, and Senator Mustapha appears to fit into that calculation given his closeness to the current administration,” he said.

Kashim Musa Tumsah, a lawyer with no prior political office, is also generating interest among certain groups, particularly youths seeking a departure from traditional political figures.

Lawan Kolo Geidam, the FCT Mandate Secretary for Youth and Sports Development, has also gained traction, particularly among youth groups who have openly endorsed him.

In a joint statement, the groups highlighted his strengths.

“We believe that Lawan Kolo Geidam has demonstrated capacity through his service at the federal level, and his track record in youth development and grassroots engagement makes him a suitable candidate to lead Yobe State into a new era of progress,” the groups said.

Other notable figures mentioned in succession talks include the Secretary to the State Government, Baba Malam Wali; former Minister of Power, Abubakar Aliyu; and Mohammed Abacha Geidam.

Buni’s role in determining his successor is widely seen as critical.

Meanwhile, opposition forces are making renewed efforts to challenge the APC’s dominance, with the ADC emerging as a platform for displaced political heavyweights.

The defection of notable figures such as former Minister of Police Affairs, Adamu Waziri, and PDP governorship aspirant, Dr Ali Tikau, has boosted the party’s profile in the state.

Speaking during the inauguration of the party’s structures in Damaturu, Tarmuwa, and Bursari, Waziri expressed confidence in the ADC’s chances.

As consultations intensify and alliances continue to form quietly across the state, the race to succeed Buni remains open, with zoning considerations, party dynamics, and political influence expected to shape the final outcome.

KWARA

The race to succeed Governor AbdulRazaq has intensified, with political actors across Kwara State quietly positioning themselves for what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive governorship contests in recent history.

Attention has steadily shifted from governance to succession, triggering a wave of consultations, declarations, and strategic alignments.

At least eight aspirants have formally declared their intentions or confirmed interest in contesting, cutting across the ruling APC, the opposition PDP and the ADC.

Within the APC, the contest is gradually exposing underlying tensions beneath the party’s outward unity, as aspirants from the three senatorial districts jostle for relevance.

What appears as calm, insiders say, is a careful balancing of competing interests, especially as the party seeks to maintain its dominance after sweeping into power in 2019.

Addressing concerns over succession and internal competition, AbdulRazaq dismissed claims that he had endorsed any candidate, insisting the process would remain open.

“We are not here to build a dynasty; we are here to build a legacy. Whoever succeeds me will build on this foundation and strive to do better,” he said.

The governor further hinted at the scale of interest within his party, noting that the race would be highly competitive even among insiders.

Among APC aspirants who have openly declared are Lanre Issa-Onilu, Senator Lola Ashiru, Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman, Amb Yahaya Seriki, Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa, Prof Wale Sulaiman, and Senator Sadiq Umar, each drawing support from different political blocs and regions of the state.

Other influential figures such as Yakubu Danladi-Salihu, the incumbent Speaker of the state House of Assembly; Senator Salihu Mustapha, representing Kwara Central at the National Assembly; and Mashood Mustapha, a core APC stalwart in the state, are also being tipped as potential contenders, with loyalists quietly mobilising support, further deepening the intrigue within the ruling party.

The zoning debate has, however, emerged as a defining factor in the succession conversation, particularly with increasing agitation for power to shift to Kwara North.

The issue gained prominence after the APC chairman, Sunday Fagbemi, stated that the party had yet to decide on zoning.

“For the benefit of hindsight, we have 100 per cent chances at victory. What we are looking at now is making sure that the winning margin is enlarged, and that is already in the oven.

“All the people who worked against us during the last election are now with us. Naturally, the margin should be very big. By the grace of God, it’s going to be a hundred per cent again,” he said.

Fagbemi also downplayed fears of an internal crisis ahead of the primaries, insisting that the party would manage the ambitions of aspirants.

In the opposition camp, the PDP is regrouping under the influence of Dr Bukola Saraki, a two-term former governor and former Senate President, with efforts underway to reclaim political relevance in the state.

The party has confirmed three aspirants – Omar Bolaji Gambari, Prof Ali Ahmad, and Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu – all of whom have begun consultations and public engagements.

Speaking on the party’s readiness, PDP state Organising Secretary, Mallam Obalowu Olaitan, expressed confidence in the party’s chances.

Also speaking, a House of Assembly aspirant vying to represent Ilorin North-West Constituency under the PDP, Adisa Jaji-Azeez, reaffirmed the party’s readiness to challenge and reclaim the leadership structure of the state.

Meanwhile, the emergence of Abdulmumin Yinka Ajia under the ADC introduces a third force into the race, potentially appealing to voters dissatisfied with the dominance of the two major parties.

As political activities gather pace, the Kwara governorship race is increasingly defined by a mix of ambition, regional considerations, and strategic alliances.

With zoning, party unity, and the influence of key power brokers all in play, the coming months are expected to further shape what promises to be a fiercely contested battle for the state’s top seat in 2027.

Also, there is the agitation for the emergence of a Christian governor in Kwara State.

A group under the aegis of the Coalition of Concerned Kwara Christian Stakeholders has intensified its advocacy for the emergence of a Christian governor ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Speaking at a briefing, the spokesperson of the coalition, Rev Dr Jonathan Adegboye, said the call was rooted in the principles of justice, unity, and democratic balance, rather than religious sentiment.

Providing historical context, the coalition noted that since the creation of Kwara State, only one Christian – Chief Cornelius Adebayo in 1983 – has served as civilian governor, while subsequent administrations have been led by Muslim governors.

The group listed past civilian governors, including Alhaji Adamu Attah (1979–1983), Senator Shaaba Lafiagi (1992–1993), Alhaji Mohammed Lawal (1999–2003), Dr Bukola Saraki (2003–2011), Dr Abdulfatah Ahmed (2011–2019), and the incumbent, AbdulRazaq, all of whom are Muslims.

GOMBE

As the race for the 2027 governorship election in Gombe State gradually takes shape, political observers say the field of potential contenders is already emerging, even though many aspirants are yet to openly declare their intentions.

The state is currently under the control of the APC, led by Governor Inuwa Yahaya, whose influence is widely expected to play a decisive role in determining his successor.

While political activities remain largely subdued, several prominent figures within and outside the ruling party are quietly positioning themselves ahead of the contest.

Among the names frequently mentioned is Saidu Ahmed Alkali, the current Minister of Transportation and a former senator who represented Gombe North Senatorial District. Alkali is considered a close ally of the governor and a major stakeholder within the APC in the state.

Another key figure is Usman Bello Kumo, the Chief Whip of the House of Representatives. Bello, also regarded as a loyalist of the governor, commands considerable political influence at the federal level.

Similarly, the Commissioner for Finance, Muhammad Gambo Magaji, is also being tipped among potential aspirants. Magaji is another loyalist of the governor and has been playing a strategic role in the administration’s financial management.

Former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Isa Ali Pantami, is also widely speculated to be interested in the race. Pantami, an Islamic scholar and prominent APC member, remains a significant political figure in the state, although some party insiders previously accused him of distancing himself from party structures at the state level.

Other figures being discussed within the APC include Yunusa Yakubu, a businessman and ally of the governor who has handled several construction projects in the state.

Also mentioned is the current Accountant-General of the state, Aminu Yuguda and another political actor, Jamilu Ishiyaku, a long-time aspirant for the governorship who has moved between parties over the years.

Ishiyaku recently returned to the APC after previously leaving the party and was known to have supported Yahaya during the 2023 governorship election.

Despite the dominance of the APC in the state, some opposition figures are still considered potential contenders.

Among them is Jibrin Barde, the PDP governorship candidate in the 2023 election who has since become a chieftain of the ADC.

Another notable politician is Khamisu Mailantarki, who contested the 2023 governorship election under the NNPP but has since aligned with the PDP.

Also active within the opposition space is Bala Bello Tinka, a prominent figure in the ADC and a contractor known for undertaking road construction projects.

Political analysts say the strength of the opposition in the state has significantly diminished following a wave of defections to the ruling APC.

The situation is reflected in the composition of the Gombe State House of Assembly, where the APC currently controls 23 out of the 24 seats, leaving the PDP with only one seat.

This dominance has further strengthened the ruling party’s grip on the political landscape and may influence the dynamics of the next governorship election.

Observers believe Yahaya will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2027 race.

At several public events, the governor has hinted at his influence over the succession process, describing himself as “the driver in charge of the movement.”

Historically, the governorship position in the state has largely been zoned to Gombe North, with a Muslim governor and a Christian deputy governor from Gombe South.

However, political pundits say this arrangement may change ahead of the 2027 elections.

There are growing speculations that the state could witness a Muslim-Muslim ticket, with both the governor and deputy governor potentially emerging from the northern and southern zones, respectively.

ADAMAWA

The defections of both former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to the ADC and Governor Fintiri to the APC are expected to shape the political battle ahead of 2027 in the state.

The APC will be banking on the political strength of the governor to upstage the ADC in the state.

In Adamawa, notable governorship aspirants on the APC platform are the APC National Vice Chairman, North East zone, Alhaji Mustapha Salihu; former chairman of Adamawa State Universal Basic Education, Alhaji Salisu Bakari and Alhaji Abdullaman Haske.

The ADC has ex-Governor Jibrilla Bindow, Senator Aishatu Binani, Senator Ishaku Abbo, Alhaji Tukur Modibbo and former Managing Director, Nigeria Ports Authority, Alhaji Suleiman Umarana.

The PDP has the senator representing Adamawa Central, Iya Abbas, and the Area Manager of Zenith Bank, Yola, Mr Caleb Andrew. The SDP has a former member of the state House of Assembly, Mr Wafari Thelman, as a contestant.

The zoning system may edge out aspirants from Adamawa North for the 2027 election, although political calculations in the state don’t put much emphasis on zoning.

Adamawa North produced Saleh Michika, 1992 (Michika LGA), Boni Haruna, 1999-2007 (Michika LGA), Jibrilla Bindow, 2015-2019 (Mubi LGA) and Fintiri, 2019 to date (Madagali LGA).

The Southern Adamawa produced ex-Governor Murtala Nyako, who was impeached in his second tenure over financial misappropriations during the time of Fintiri as speaker.

There are strong voices that Adamawa Central should produce the next governor, irrespective of the political party that presented an acceptable candidate.

The governorship aspirants from the Central Adamawa zone across all the political parties are Alhaji Mustapha Salihu (APC, Hong LGA), Iya Abbas (PDP, Hong LGA), Alhaji Suleiman Umarana (ADC, Hong LGA), and Mr Wafari Thelman (SDP, Hong LGA).

Others are Alhaji Tukur Modibbo (ADC, Fufore LGA), Senator Aishatu Binani (ADC, Fufore LGA) and Alhaji Salisu Bakari (APC, Girei LGA).

Adamawa Southern zone has Mr Caleb Andrew (PDP, Numan LGA) and Alhaji Abdullaman Haske (APC, Ganye LGA), while the Adamawa North has Senator Ishaku Abbo, (ADC, Mubi) and former governor Bindow (ADC, Mubi).

Since Fintiri defected to the APC last month and took over the leadership of the party in Adamawa, there have, however, been no clear records on the fate of the executive members of the PDP who joined the governor in defecting to the APC.

Also, some chieftains of the APC are protesting the replacement of their former chairman, Alhaji Idris Shuaibu, with the former PDP chairman, Alhaji Hamza Madsgali.

A former commissioner under the past administration of ex-Governor Boni Haruna said, “APC will be split into two or more, if the governor wants to impose the defectors who are yet to understand the constitution of the party on us.”

Supporters of the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, are also mobilising to ensure the bloc produces the governorship candidate.

Sources confirmed to The PUNCH that one of the conditions Fintiri agreed with the Presidency to defect to the APC was that he would pick his successor, who must be a grassroots leader willing to make sacrifices for the development and progress of the state.

BORNO

In Borno, there are indications that the senator representing Borno Central senatorial district, Kaka Shehu Lawan, is strongly positioning himself to fly the APC flag against the leading opposition parties, including the PDP and ADC.

Our correspondent reports that Shehu Lawan has maintained a closer tie and appears more in public with Governor Zulum than others in the state.

Earlier in January, Zulum, while addressing party leaders, elected officials, and members, stressed the need for a fair, transparent, and just process in the election of party officials during the forthcoming congresses.

He also dismissed speculation about his influence over the party’s future ticket.

“I have no candidate for any position, and I do not know who will succeed me.

“I have entrusted the choice of leaders to Almighty Allah, in accordance with the democratic will of the party members and the people of Borno State,” the governor had stated.

However, while social comments continuously point to Senator Shehu Lawan, the fact that he comes from the same senatorial district as the governor is likely a factor that may work against his emergence.

Figures in the opposition that may likely be pushing for the seat include a former PDP governorship candidate, Kashim Ibrahim Imam; a former governorship aspirant, Alhaji Idris Mamman Durkwa, and Sheriff Banki.

Also being touted are the PDP 2023 deputy governorship candidate, Alhaji Saleh Kida; former PDP national treasurer, Alhaji Ali Wurge, 2023 House of Representatives candidate in Maiduguri Metropolitan Council, Babakura Abba Yusuf; 2023 PDP candidate for Bama, Ngala, Kala Balge Federal Constituency, Abdulrazaq Ahmed Zanna, among others in the ADC.

The PDP in Borno has already collapsed its structure into the ADC, and there has yet to be any popular figure indicating interest in the party. (The PUNCH)

• Govs Sanwo-Olu, Dapo Abiodun, Seyi Makinde, Bala Mohammed, Mai Mala Buni, Babagana Zulum, Ahmadu Fintiri, Inuwa Yahaya, Abdullahi Sule and AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq

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