There are growing concerns among stakeholders in Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector that the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran could trigger a shortage of essential medicines by disrupting drug imports and delaying the supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients needed for local production.

They warned that a prolonged crisis could drive up the cost of medicines and medical consumables nationwide.

The stakeholders noted that although local drug manufacturers were currently absorbing rising production costs, disruptions in global supply chains, surging oil prices, and foreign exchange pressures may soon affect both the availability and affordability of essential medicines.

In exclusive interviews, the stakeholders, however, agreed that beyond price increases, the greater risk posed by the conflict was the potential disruption in supply, which could limit access to essential medicines for Nigerians.

The US-Iran conflict, which has entered its 18th day, has been marked by intensified attacks, including strikes on Tehran and regional allies, according to international news agencies.

The conflict began on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran after weeks of military build-up and threats from President Trump. Large-scale strikes targeted Iranian military assets and the Islamic Republic’s top leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed him. Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military facilities, as well as energy and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf states. The war has led to over 1,400 deaths, the majority of them in Iran.

The PUNCH earlier reported that the escalating Iran-United States conflict will directly worsen Nigeria’s health funding gaps, putting critical programmes like HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, immunisation, and maternal health at greater risk due to potential support cuts.

The report showed that as the prolonged conflict consumes substantial resources, external funding to low- and middle-income countries, including Nigeria, will suffer, stating that this growing economic burden will exacerbate reductions in global health funding.

The experts in the report noted that with the closure of the Middle East due to the conflict, importation of drugs from China and India will become difficult, driving up costs while funding shrinks.

Already, patients are grappling with rising drug prices due to the economic situation, Naira depreciation, high import dependence, and the exit of multinational pharmaceutical companies.

According to the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control, Nigeria imports 70 per cent of its essential medicines, leaving local production at roughly 30 per cent for a population of over 230 million people.

Chairman of the Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Group of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Oluwatosin Jolayemi, said the impact of the conflict on drug prices may initially be modest, as manufacturers are making efforts to cushion the effect of rising logistics and energy costs.

“It will affect the cost of work, logistics costs, either logistical APIs or the logistics of local transportation. But I do not think it is going to be as significant. It might just be slight, but not as much as it has been said,” he said.

Jolayemi added that he was not aware of any local manufacturer that had increased prices due to the ongoing crisis, noting that producers often absorb shocks rather than transfer them to consumers.

“As we speak now, I am not aware of any of the local manufacturers that have increased the cost of products based on what is going on now. Most manufacturers, when things are like this, absorb the shock. They don’t pass it on,” he added.

However, the manufacturer warned that prolonged disruption to global shipping routes, especially those linked to active pharmaceutical ingredients sourced from India and China, could lead to delays and shortages.

“If the war prolongs, there will certainly be a price increase. But it is not even the price increase that is more dangerous than the availability or the scarcity,” he said, adding that any increase may range between five and 10 per cent.

Also, the President of the Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria, Aliyu Tanko, said Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported medicines makes the country highly vulnerable to global disruptions.

“Many of these medicines or their active pharmaceutical ingredients originate from manufacturing hubs such as India and China and are transported through global routes that may be affected by instability in the Middle East. Any prolonged geopolitical tension in that region could therefore disrupt shipping logistics, delay supplies, and increase the cost of importing essential medicines into Nigeria,” he said.

Tanko added that early signs of cost pressure were already emerging, driven by rising fuel prices, shipping risks, and foreign exchange fluctuations.

“Medicine pricing in Nigeria is highly sensitive to changes in logistics, fuel prices, foreign exchange rates, and importation costs,” he said, warning that further disruptions could make price increases unavoidable, particularly for drugs used in managing chronic conditions.

He explained that higher freight, insurance and logistics costs linked to the conflict would likely cascade through the supply chain, ultimately affecting retail prices.

Similarly, the National Chairman of the Association of Community Pharmacists of Nigeria, Ambrose Ezeh, said the surge in global oil prices and supply chain disruptions were already increasing the cost of pharmaceutical production and distribution.

The community pharmacist noted that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported medicines could worsen the situation, warning that scarcity of essential drugs may occur if supply chains are disrupted.

“About 70 per cent of drugs used in Nigeria are imported. If the supply chain is disrupted and imported goods are not coming in, the little ones available will become more expensive, and some essential medicines may not even be available,” he said.

Ezeh added that while price increases may not yet be widespread, adjustments are already occurring within the distribution chain, particularly among wholesalers and retailers responding to rising costs.

He also linked the trend to foreign exchange volatility, noting that a stronger dollar increases the cost of importing medicines and raw materials.

“If the war continues and the current situation remains, the prices of drugs will continue to increase,” he warned.

The stakeholders urged the Federal Government to adopt proactive strategies.

They stated that Nigeria and other African countries should expand domestic drug manufacturing capacity to reduce dependence on global supply chains. According to them, institutions such as the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention should be empowered to coordinate continent-wide emergency health responses.

“Regional stockpiles of vaccines, antibiotics, and essential medicines can ensure continuity of healthcare delivery during global crises. African governments should prioritise health security infrastructure, including laboratory capacity, epidemic surveillance systems, and emergency response teams,” they noted

Providing further insight into the implications of delays in the importation of active pharmaceutical ingredients, some leading pharmacists who spoke with The PUNCH, warned that any escalation of the US-Iran conflict could significantly affect the availability of APIs.

The pharmacists noted that APIs are the essential building blocks of pharmaceutical products.

According to them, APIs are the core substances used to manufacture drugs in tablets, capsules, injections, and syrups. They lamented that most of Nigeria’s APIs are currently sourced from China and India.

A former President of PSN, Olumide Akintayo, warned that such disruptions could drive up drug prices in Nigeria and further expose the country’s weak local manufacturing capacity.

Akintayo said Nigeria remains far from achieving self-sufficiency in the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients, noting that only a few companies are making progress in that area.

The pharmacist attributed the country’s heavy reliance on imports to inadequate government support and weak policy implementation in the pharmaceutical sector.

said, “Government is not yet serious. Every serious nation places drug matters on the exclusive list for a reason. The reason is to achieve maximum regulation and control. But we have not achieved that in Nigeria.”

Akintayo noted that despite lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, Nigeria has failed to build a resilient pharmaceutical system, leaving the country vulnerable to global supply disruptions.

He said, “After the experience we had during COVID, a more proactive government would have ensured that we never had to depend almost 100 per cent on others for our drug needs. But that has not happened.”

He added that Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector remains underfunded and poorly regulated, contributing minimally to the country’s economy compared to countries like India and China.

“In those countries, the contribution of the pharma sector to GDP is about five per cent, but in Nigeria it is less than 0.02 per cent. That tells you something is wrong,” he said.

Akintayo warned that continued delays in the importation of raw materials, combined with rising energy costs, would likely push drug prices higher.

“Drug pricing will soar again. If you look at energy costs now, somebody has to bear the brunt and it is the consumer,” he said.

He explained that high diesel and gas costs, which power most pharmaceutical manufacturing plants, are increasing production expenses, with manufacturers eventually passing the burden to consumers.

The pharmacist called for increased government investment and strategic support for the pharmaceutical sector, stressing that strengthening local manufacturing would improve healthcare delivery and reduce dependence on imports.

“If you improve manufacturing, you improve GDP and restore credibility to the health system. But unfortunately, I do not see a government that is interested in all of this,” he added.

Also, a former National Chairman of the ACPN, Adewale Oladigbolu, warned that prolonged global conflict could worsen access to medicines in Nigeria by increasing costs and disrupting supply chains.

Oladigbolu noted that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported medicines and raw materials leaves the country highly vulnerable to external shocks, particularly as most active pharmaceutical ingredients are sourced from countries such as India and China.

He said, “Over 70 per cent of the drugs that we use in Nigeria are from outside the country, particularly India and China. Of the less than 30 per cent that we produce, we do not make the APIs locally.”

He explained that rising global energy costs, driven by the conflict, would increase the cost of production and importation of both raw materials and finished pharmaceutical products.

“If the war is prolonged, it will begin to affect the logistics of medicine, so medicines will become unavailable to the people. The ones that will be available will be more expensive,” he said.

The pharmacist added that the rising cost of medicines, alongside increasing energy prices, would place additional financial pressure on households, most of whom already pay for healthcare out of pocket.

“It means that people will have to spend more on getting healthcare and medicines. Household income will have less room to manoeuvre because they are paying more for energy and more for health,” he said.

Oladigbolu warned that higher costs could lead to delays in seeking medical care, with potential consequences for public health outcomes.

“It also means that some people will delay seeking healthcare at the right time because medicine prices are up, and many things are competing for household income. We may begin to see more complications,” he said.

He further explained that delays in the importation of active pharmaceutical ingredients would affect local drug production, leading to shortages or higher prices.

“If the APIs do not come at all, then drugs will be scarce. If they come at a higher cost, then the drugs will be more expensive,” he added.

Additionally, the immediate Past Chairman, PSN, Ogun State chapter, Adewale Adenugba, said the delay of API importation to Nigeria would weaken drug manufacturing capacity in Nigeria.

“The USA–Iran conflict has disrupted global pharmaceutical supply chains, particularly affecting the movement of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, increasing production costs, and weakening manufacturing capacity in Nigeria, which heavily depends on imports.

“The implications would include rising drug prices, scarcity of essential medicines, and heightened public health risks,” he said.

The pharmacist noted that the ongoing conflicts remain a pointer for Nigeria to invest in local drug production.

“This situation highlights the urgent need for Nigeria to invest in local pharmaceutical production and supply chain resilience,” Adenugba said.

Also speaking, the immediate past vice chairman of PSN, Ogun State chapter, Olumide Obube, said the conflict may expose Nigeria to the direct impact of the fragility of being an import-dependent nation.

“Any disruption or delay in API logistics to Nigeria would expose the fragility of global pharmaceutical supply chains and their direct impact on countries like Nigeria, because it would lead to increased production costs and declining manufacturing capacity, which would collectively contribute to drug scarcity and rising healthcare challenges in Nigeria,” Obube said.

According to him, while the situation poses significant risks, it also offers a critical opportunity for Nigeria to build a more resilient and self-sufficient pharmaceutical sector. (The PUNCH)

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