The ongoing war between the U.S.-Israel and Iran is crippling international air transport, with average airfares recording a surge of over 100 per cent across several routes yesterday.

The demand-pull inflation across European and American carriers followed the abrupt indefinite suspension of several inbound and outbound flights in the Middle East.

While safety remains the primary consideration for many airlines, the development has disrupted the global economy and millions of travel plans, including this season’s summer travels.

Not only is the crisis affecting passenger travel, but it is also hindering the transport of critical medicines to the Gulf, imperilling supply routes for cancer drugs and other treatments that require refrigeration and forcing companies to reroute flights and find overland access into the region.

As of yesterday, all Middle Eastern carriers – Emirates, Etihad, and Middle Eastern Airlines (MEA) – have suspended flights indefinitely.

Major hubs, including Dubai (DXB), Abu Dhabi (AUH), Doha (DOH), and Tel Aviv (TLV), are facing shutdowns and restricted operations, with carriers operating limited schedules and cancelling thousands of flights.

Most of the passengers who had hitherto booked flights to the Middle East region are either cancelling or postponing their flights, while the travel agencies in the country are daily recording cancellations.

Also, the number of international travellers in Nigeria may have shrunk in the last two weeks, as records provided by travel agents indicated that no fewer than 40 to 45 per cent of travellers in and out of the country pass through the Middle East to reach their final destinations in Europe and America.

Four Middle East airlines operate on two Nigerian routes – Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA), Lagos and the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport (NAIA), Abuja.

The airlines are Emirates, Etihad, Qatar and Middle East Airlines (MEA), all operating a combined 47 weekly frequencies to the country and a total of 17,634 combined seats weekly.

Findings by The Guardian showed that Emirates operates 21 weekly frequencies to Nigeria – Lagos, 14 and Abuja, seven, using Boeing 777-300 with a configuration of 451 capacity and weekly capacity of 9,314 seats.

Also, Qatar Airways, which operates B788 aircraft to Lagos and Abuja, does 14 weekly flights to Lagos and another three flights weekly to Abuja, totalling 17 flights.

The aircraft are configured for 335 passengers with 5,695 weekly available seats.

Also, Etihad Airways, based in Abu Dhabi, operates seven weekly flights to Lagos using B787-9 aircraft, with a total capacity of 299 passengers and a weekly seat capacity of 2,093.

Middle East Airlines (MEA), based in Beirut, flies twice weekly to Lagos using Airbus A330-200 aircraft with a capacity of 266 seats, for a total weekly capacity of 532 seats.

Besides, mega carriers like British Airways, Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian, Air France, KLM, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Finnair and Virgin Atlantic have all suspended flights to Dubai, Abu Dhabi in the UAE, Amman, Bahrain, Doha and Tel Aviv.

Travel experts told The Guardian that in the last two weeks of the crisis, airfares had surged by over 100 per cent on many routes, despite the huge booking cancellations.

Searches on airlines’ booking portals confirmed a surge in air ticket prices.

For instance, a booking on British Airways’ portal for economy class on Friday, March 20, 2026, with a return on April 1, 2026, was $2,656 (about N3.6 million). Before the outbreak of the war, the same ticket cost $1,050 (N1.4 million).

Further search on the portal of Lufthansa Airways revealed that a return ticket to Frankfurt for the same March 20, 2026, and April 1, 2026, goes for $1,100 to $1,150 (about N1.504 to N1.572 million) while the same ticket was sold for $583 to $606 in February this year.

Speaking on the issue, the Group Managing Director of Finchglow Holdings Limited, Bankole Bernard, said that the ongoing war had regrettably impacted global travel.

Bankole, in an interview with The Guardian yesterday, emphasised that the continents interlink, adding that most of the flights departing Nigeria go either through the Middle East or the Far East to China.

He explained that the UAE is known for its tourism and destinations, which account for about 40 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Bankole pointed out that the ongoing war and the closure of the airspace had collapsed its economy, stressing that travellers to the Far East now do so with European carriers or African airlines – Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways or RwandAir.

According to him, most tourists and leisure travellers preferred the Middle East to Europe and America because of its less rigorous visa policies, but lamented that the current crisis would derail development and tourism in the region and worldwide.

Bankole said: “Some of the travellers who could not shelve their flights now go through European carriers, which do not have enough luggage capacity, unlike Emirates or other Middle East carriers. You know Nigerians travel heavily.

“Also, some of them go through established African carriers to the Far East. This is an opportunity for Africa to position itself to benefit from tourism.”

Bankole reckoned that airfares on most international routes, especially to Europe, America and the Far East, had spiked as airlines had to fly longer routes to reach their destinations.

On the domestic scene, he said the operators were also raising airfares and hoped that the crisis would be addressed in the coming days to curb further collapse of global economies.

President of the National Association of Nigerian Travel Agencies (NANTA), Dr Yinka Folami, said the ongoing war would shrink global travel.

Folami explained that the Middle East remained the major hub for the travel industry.

According to Folami, no fewer than 35 to 40 per cent of flights in and out of Nigeria would be impacted by the disruption.

Like Bernard, Folami said travel agency yields had dropped due to daily flight cancellations and travellers’ refund requests.

He said: “Since a significant share of Nigeria’s outbound traffic connects through Middle Eastern hubs to Asia, Europe, America, Australia and others, the ripple effects are already beginning to affect travel planning and distribution within our market. Cancellations and refunds are high, and sector commerce is shrinking. We hope there will be a quick resolution to the crisis,” Folami said.

Charles Amokwu, an industry analyst, said the war has a psychological impact amid significant uncertainty, while it would further create disunity across the world.

Amokwu noted that, as of mid-March 2026, the escalation of the conflict, particularly the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, had created a “dual-chokepoint” crisis that is reshaping trade flows for Africa and the global economy.

According to him, maritime rerouting is costing the global shipping industry approximately $2 billion to $3 billion in additional weekly operating costs as vessels avoid the Red Sea.

Besides, he said rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 12 to 19 days to Asia–Europe voyages.

This delay, he said, effectively reduces global yearly cargo capacity by 10–15 per cent.

Also, he maintained that freight rates for containers had reached premiums of $4,000–$5,000 per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit), representing a 250 per cent to 500 per cent increase on certain routes since the escalation began.

He added that in Nigeria, the U.S.-Israel-Iran war had created a paradox of prosperity, while the national treasury is benefiting from a massive windfall due to high oil prices.

He, however, noted that an average household is experiencing an intensified cost-of-living crisis because the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuels and goods.

Emirates on Monday again announced the temporary suspension of all flights to and from Dubai due to the latest strikes on its facilities by Iran.

The airline advised all travellers not to go to Dubai International Airport. It said the suspension of services followed advice issued by the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority on Monday morning, which grounded all flights at DXB.

In its latest update, the airline stated that all Emirates flights to and from Dubai remain suspended until further notice.

The airline said it was working closely with the relevant authorities to assess the situation and support the safe resumption of operations when possible.

The airline said: “Customers are reminded not to travel to the airport at this time and to continue checking this page for the latest updates.

“We thank our customers for their continued patience and understanding. The safety of our passengers and crew remains our highest priority.”

While there are few signs yet of major shortages, that could change if the conflict drags on, some executives said. The Gulf relies heavily on imports, and some medicines have short shelf lives and need strict cold-chain storage, making lengthy overland shipping less practical.

Executives at Western drugmakers said they were seeking alternative routes into the ?Gulf and trucking some drugs overland from airports like Jeddah and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. Other options were Istanbul and Oman. (The Guardian)

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