Amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East, data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria has shown that a litre of imported petrol is about N64 cheaper than the one produced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

However, the refinery has debunked the report, challenging importers to defy the ongoing airstrikes in the Middle East and bring in petroleum products.

The PUNCH reported on Monday that the Dangote refinery increased its petrol price from N774 to N874. The adjustment followed a jump in oil prices to $84 per barrel, up from below $70, days before the airstrikes involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and other countries.

Following the increment, filling stations on Tuesday raised their pump prices to as high as N937, depending on the location. Before the Middle East crisis deepened over the weekend, some filling stations had already been selling petrol at prices ranging between N812 and N839, but the crisis disrupted the global fuel market, affecting Nigeria and other countries.

However, data by MEMAN indicated that Dangote’s petrol gantry price was N874 per litre as of Monday, while the landing cost of imported petrol was N809.37 per litre, showing a difference of about N64 between the two sources.

MEMAN also reported that Dangote’s diesel price was N1,169.42, while imported diesel was N1,125.70 per litre.

However, officials of the Dangote refinery, who did not want to be mentioned because of the sensitivity of the matter, said some importers were projecting a false narrative to ensure the Federal Government continues to issue import licences.

“Anybody can go to Apapa to get the landing cost, and anybody who likes should go to Iran and import. Some people just want us to depend on imports. Isn’t it time we ended that dependence on foreign products?

“Some people want importation to continue, and that’s not normal. You keep importing what can be produced locally. Is that a good thing? How do you expect our children to survive? Nigerians will import and destroy what we have locally,” an official said.

Aside from pricing, another official said Nigeria should be thankful to the Dangote refinery for shielding the country from the fuel crisis that could have paralysed commercial activities.

“Let’s think about what could have happened to Nigeria if we didn’t have a refinery in Nigeria at this time. Assuming there is no Dangote refinery in Nigeria, economic activities would have been paralysed by now.

“Many countries are not so lucky, and they are now facing long queues at filling stations. Dangote has saved Nigeria from that fuel crisis. This has taught us that there’s nothing like one’s country, and we must always be prepared,” he said.

In its report, MEMAN explained that the downstream sector saw a major upward price adjustment on Monday, driven by the Dangote refinery raising its gantry price by N100, bringing it to N874 per litre.

The shift, triggered by rising global crude costs, pushed retail pump prices above N900 per litre. Many private depots reportedly paused sales briefly to recalibrate their pricing in response.

“The market is currently in a state of high uncertainty. With Brent crude climbing above $80/bbl due to escalating geopolitical tensions (specifically the US-Israel-Iran conflict), analysts warn that the cost of petrol remains under significant pressure. If crude prices continue toward the $90/bbl mark, domestic pump prices could potentially reach N1,100 by next month,” MEMAN said.

On Wednesday, motorists flocked to petrol stations across Britain in a scramble for fuel as fears of a new oil crisis caused by the Iran war grew, according to a report by The Mirror UK.

Frustrated drivers complained on Wednesday about UK petrol stations running out of fuel and long queues at forecourts after hostilities erupted in the Middle East. Prices have risen by as much as 11 pence per litre in some locations.

In contrast, Nigeria relies on the Dangote refinery for an adequate fuel supply amid the geopolitical tensions. Petrol prices in Nigeria surged on Tuesday, but no queues were reported at filling stations. Analysts attribute this to the Dangote refinery reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.

Commentators highlight the Dangote refinery’s role in shielding Nigeria from such disruptions. “Imagine a Nigeria without a refinery; we would be experiencing endless queues, black market prices, businesses slowing down, and an economy held hostage by fuel scarcity.

“Today, we stand at a turning point. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is more than steel and pipes — it is energy security, economic power, job creation, and national pride,” an industry player who spoke in confidence stated.

During a recent meeting with refiners and stakeholders, the Dangote refinery assured them of sufficient fuel supply, though it noted challenges from insufficient crude, requiring some reliance on foreign feedstock.

Dangote outpaced importers to supply approximately 62 per cent of the nation’s petrol in January 2026.

This development, revealed in the fact sheet from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, signals a growing reliance on domestic refining capabilities and a potential reduction in the country’s longstanding dependence on fuel imports.

According to the NMDPRA’s State of the Downstream Sector report for January 2026, the total average daily supply of petrol reached 64.9 million litres per day in January.

Of this volume, receipts from domestic refineries — primarily driven by Dangote, the only petrol-producing refinery at the moment — accounted for 40.1 million litres per day, while imports by oil marketing companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited stood at 24.8 million litres per day.

This marked the first time in the 13-month period covered by the report (from January 2025 to January 2026) that domestic production had exceeded imports, reversing a trend where foreign supplies often dominated the market.

The NMDPRA attributed the surge in domestic output directly to “improvement in supply from DPRP” — the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals — which increased its PMS contributions from 32 million litres per day in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres per day in January 2026.

Crude supply denial

Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery has said that local crude producers are refusing to supply feedstock to its facility, forcing it to rely more on imported crude. In a statement on Thursday, the refinery defended its recent N100 increase in the gantry price of petrol.

While reassuring Nigerians of its unwavering commitment to serving as a stabilising force amid recent shocks in the international oil market, the refinery said the conflict in the Middle East has led to the shutdown of some refineries and cutbacks in refinery production across the world.

This, it said, is leading to a global scarcity of petroleum products, as China has banned the export of gasoline and diesel. “The Dangote refinery will ensure that Nigeria is insulated from these supply shocks by prioritising supply to the domestic market. This is one of the many benefits of domestic refining,” it said.

According to the statement, the conflict in the Middle East has driven global crude and freight prices sharply higher, with benchmark Brent prices rising by about 26 per cent within a short period to above $84 per barrel.

In response, the refinery implemented a measured adjustment of N100 per litre in its ex-depot price of petrol, representing an increase of about 12 per cent.

The refinery said it has absorbed 20 per cent of the cost escalation for now to cushion the domestic market, despite continuing to source crude at prevailing international market prices, whether purchased locally or from foreign suppliers.

“It is worth noting that Nigerian crude oil is more expensive than the Brent benchmark price by $3 to $6 per barrel. After adding freight of $3.50 per barrel, crude oil will be landing in our tanks between $88 and $91 per barrel. For context, crude oil was landing in our tanks at about $68 per barrel when our ex-depot price was N774/litre,” the refinery stated.

According to the company, the refinery receives five cargoes every month from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited instead of 13 cargoes, adding that the cargoes are paid for at international market prices.

“Furthermore, while we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria. We, therefore, end up procuring foreign exchange at open market rates to pay for crude cargoes purchased from local and international traders.

“The high crude cost is compounded by the fact that Nigeria’s upstream producers have failed to supply crude oil to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing us to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium,” it stated.

As a private enterprise operating in a deregulated environment, the Dangote refinery added that it has remained responsive and has made significant sacrifices by aligning pricing with market realities to ensure sustainability, particularly as it sources all its crude at prevailing international market prices, whether locally or from foreign suppliers.

“Selling below cost would undermine its ability to procure crude, sustain production, and guarantee uninterrupted supply to Nigerians. Despite these pressures, local refining at this scale continues to reduce exposure to international supply disruptions, moderate foreign exchange demand, and protect the country from severe shortages during periods of global instability,” the refinery added.

The refinery said it is also accelerating the deployment of compressed natural gas-powered trucks to cushion the impact of global shocks, enhance nationwide distribution efficiency, reduce logistics costs, and improve delivery timelines across the downstream sector.

“The rollout is scheduled to commence this month,” it announced, saying, “We remain committed to transparency, operational excellence, and the long-term objective of securing sustainable energy security and stability for Nigeria at an affordable cost.”

Efforts to get the reactions of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the agency in charge of the domestic crude supply obligation, were unsuccessful. The NUPRC spokesman, Eniola Akinkuotu, did not reply to messages sent to him.

Similarly, the spokesman of NNPC, Andy Odeh, declined to comment when contacted by our correspondent on Thursday.

Experts speak

Meanwhile, as Dangote and modular refineries demand sufficient crude supply in the face of low crude production, experts have called on the government and operators to ramp up production.

An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said meeting oil production targets would depend far less on ambitious projections of the government and far more on practical and on-the-ground actions.

Iledare told The PUNCH that the government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity.

According to Iledare, Nigeria earned about N55tn from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50tn in 2024. “While this is an improvement, it still fell short of what the Federal Government expected for the year,” he said. The don noted that the main issue was not oil prices but production.

He explained that the government planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed to get only about 599.6 million barrels, saying that means close to 167 million barrels were not produced, and the revenue that could have come with them was lost.

“Looking ahead to 2026, meeting oil production targets will depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions. The government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity,” he stated.

He added that supporting investment in maintenance and infill drilling—while ensuring policy consistency—will be critical to converting planned barrels into actual barrels. The expert called on the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to lead the charge by reopening shut-in wells.

“In this regard, the IPPG holds a key role in near-term production expansion. With appropriate economic and policy incentives, re-entry into shut-in wells in the onshore and shallow-water basins could deliver meaningful production gains within the year,” Iledare explained.

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said the crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government itself.

According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, the joint ventures, happenings in the global oil market, and the environmental conditions, among others. (The PUNCH)

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