By IFEANYICHUKWU AFUBA

It was only a matter of time. Things had come to a head. Something had to give between the iron – necked Islamic regime of Tehran and Trump’s history – obsessed presidency. The flurry of diplomatic activities in January and much of February 2026 was in futility. The attempted dialogue facilitated by Oman was doomed from the outset. What was there to negotiate when the red lines of the two sides mutually cancelled themselves out? Washington was emphatic that discontinuation of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme and curbs on her ballistic missiles was the raison d’etre of the talks. Tehran, for its part, declared the two items, practically off the table. Updates about achieving guidelines on the round of talks were mere diplomatese. The discussion was going in circles, which meant that time was running out. Not surprisingly, the bombs rained down on the Islamic regime targets on Saturday, February 28.

The United States correctly predicted the scenario. Not a complex assessment anyway. By the expression iron – necked regime, we refer to the inflexibility of the theocratic rulership in Tehran. The regime hardly sees beyond its messianic delusion. A more sober, calculating actor would have come to terms with the shifting sands; decoded the meaning of America’s military buildup in the region. Assembling of military armada to the point of two aircraft carriers was telling. The positioning of a variety of high skill combat vessels within striking distance of Iran as the talks faltered was a loud statement. You do not deploy such fleet of military weapons for fun. Movement of the high grade arsenal used in attacking Iran to the middle east is estimated to have cost millions of dollars. There had to be a justification for the huge financial cost. If there was an element of surprise in the offensive, it was Israel’s participation. The latter had not featured as a player while the Iran – US confrontation unfolded.

It was not quite the case that the mullahs in Iran could not track America’s intention. Afterall, Donald Trump severally warned on the course of military action in the event of an aborted nuclear deal. The Iranian regime was rather suicidal. It chose to continue to be ruled by emotion. Trump’s repeated caution on military action was reciprocated with boasts of fire and brimstone by multi levels of Tehran’s dictatorship. From the religious ruler Ayatollah Ali Khameini, to Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to the President, Masoud Pezeshkian, it was thunder of war taunts and threats. The warriors of Tehran were still vowing “crushing response to the enemy” when Israel’s precision missiles buried them. Against intelligence impression of a pattern of night cover sorties, Israel’s combat jets struck in daylight of Saturday, February 28, taking the jihadists by surprise. High profile casualties included Ayatollah Khameini, Ali Shamkani, Secretary of the Security Council, Mohammad Pakpor, IRGC Commander, Aziz Nasirzadeh, Defence Minister and Mohammad Shirazi, head of Military Bureau. On Monday, March 2nd, Israel added Sayed Yahya Hamidi, deputy minister of Intelligence and Jalal Pour Hossein, head of espionage division to the dispatched list.

Iran’s response further betrayed a suicidal instinct. For sure, she took the battle to Israel where nine civilian deaths were recorded from an unintercepted missile. Although two American jets were hit over Kuwait, the impact was thought to be from friendly fire. Notably, the United States lost six troops from an attack at an airbase in Bahrain. In all, the Islamic regime launched it's firepower towards Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirate, Iraq and Cyprus. A greater part of the projectiles were either shot down or landed harmlessly in open areas. On the face of it, the expanded offensive seems like the push of a courageous, fighting force. But it’s a fleeting impression that quickly gives way to reality. Tehran’s radical regime is only trying to create confusion. It seeks to provoke a wider conflict under which it will obtain respite, if not totally deflect the US – Israel assault. But where the survivalist game flops, the mullahs running Tehran want to try the Samson formula; not to go down alone; bring the roof crashing on all heads. Either way, they lose. Saddam Hussein tried the tactics in the 1991 Gulf war and it failed.

It will take the eighth wonder of the world for the cantankerous regime in Iran to survive the thunder tearing through Tehran. Militarily, the regime forces stand no chance in a full scale war. In just three days of the conflict, the US destroyed nine Iranian navy ships. On Tuesday, fourth day of the undeclared war, Israel was hitting military targets all over Iran with little air resistance. The regime does not fare better on the socio – political side. News of elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei had sparked both mourning and celebration in the streets. The rejoicing obviously signposts rejection of the status quo and assumes significance against the recent anti – regime riots in the country. With a battered economy and dispossessed population, the regime's loyalists consist only of hardline Islamists and students of radical nationalism. For most part, Iran’s theocracy is merely tolerated by middle east countries. Every country in the Gulf region holds their breath suspiciously at the terror – sponsoring regime. A firm resolve not to play into the hands of the desperate regime is what has stopped the countries attacked in the present conflict from hitting back.

The beleaguered regime can count on only three allies in the region. These are the triple H of Houthi militia, Hezbollah and Hamas, all of them beneficiaries of Tehran’s power policies. Their common bond is the delusion of an international Caliphate, a world dominated by a mighty Republic of Islamic states beyond borders and tribes. As it were, Iran’s theocracy and her proxies meet a brick wall in their ideological fantasy with the reality of geopolitics and reigning world order. The West represents the anathema of their ideological flights. Israel sits on the historical territory at the heart of this ideological heritage. Conquering these formidable barriers demanded possession of a nuclear bomb. Since seizing the throne in 1979, the mullahs and their hysterical crowds have not stopped yelling: We will march down to Jerusalem! Death to Israel! Death to America! Since the showdown started last Saturday, however, only Hezbollah, managed a feeble kick at Israel. The fire – eating Houthis still had a mouthful from the barrage of red coal America dumped on them during the Gaza war. Hamas is busy searching for the gains of its bravado of October 27, 2023, in the ruins left of Gaza. Following Israel’s stinging response to Hezbollah’s misadventure, the Lebanese government has itself to blame for not insisting on disarming of Hezbollah.

Expectedly, devotees of liberalism idolatry, along with zealots of religiosity and captives of fundamentalism wasted no time in filing out to the streets in America. In a few more odd places in the West, the activists ever faithful to the placard parade, derided the action to rein in Iran’s loose rulership. Predictably too, pockets of protests popped up in some towns in northern Nigeria. Sure, the right of expression and dissent remains a cardinal feature of free society. But in upholding this personal freedom, we cannot but observe it’s one – sided momentum. How come that the puritans of political morality in the West are dogged by inconsistency? Why is the aversion to war selective? Is Vladimir Putin’s naked aggression on Ukraine acceptable to the crusaders of freedom and equal rights? Why are they not protesting Putin’s annexation ambitions? Will the suffering of the people of Ukraine ever receive one percent of the outrage poured out over Gaza? Are the restless marchers for human dignity not aware of the wrecking of democracy in Myanmar; and of the unjust imprisonment of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi? Why are the coalitions of conscience in the West yet to protest South Sudan’s senseless war? And attendant humanitarian tragedy? How come that their activism only comes alive when Israel is involved? Righteous indignation indeed! Their howling will not change anything. The beginning of the end has come for Tehran’s totalitarians. And the world will be safer for it.

•Afuba is of Politics & Governance Forge, Awka.

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