Uncertainty over the future of Iran deepened yesterday as the country’s ruling establishment consolidated power following the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, casting doubt on US President Donald Trump’s promise that his military campaign would trigger regime change in Tehran.

Despite calls from Washington and Israel for Iranians to seize the moment and overthrow the Islamic Republic, key state institutions, including the clerical leadership and powerful security apparatus, remained firmly in control, and there have been no indications of a coordinated public uprising.

Many Iranians, while frustrated by economic hardship and political repression, appeared wary of forceful upheaval, mindful of the instability that followed the US-backed interventions in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, among others.

With Khamenei’s allies steering an interim transition process and the system showing resilience, questions remain over whether the Islamic Republic itself is truly vulnerable to collapse, as Trump foresaw.

In spite of Western calls for Iranians to rise up against their government, there are no signs yet of a successful overthrow of the Islamic Republic’s ruling establishment. In fact, Iran’s leadership has moved into an interim phase amid retaliatory strikes across the Middle East.

While US and Israeli leaders said the strike was a blow against the clerical establishment and encouraged Iranians to seize the moment to topple their government, large segments of the Iranian public have remained cautious or reluctant to rise up, wary of the chaos that followed foreign-backed interventions in some other countries where the removal of entrenched rulers led to protracted instability, civil conflict and power vacuums.

Analysts say that fear of plunging into similar turmoil has made many Iranians hesitate to envision a forceful overthrow, even as dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic’s decades of repression and economic hardship persists. These dynamics unfold against a backdrop of escalating military strikes across the Middle East and widespread travel disruptions, with airspace closures and flight cancellations stranding passengers across the region.

Several countries are frequently cited by critics as examples where US military intervention or regime-change policy contributed to prolonged instability, governance breakdown, or civil conflict. The degree of responsibility remains debatable, but these cases are often referenced in discussions about the risks of externally driven political transitions.

They include Iraq; Libya; Afghanistan; Syria; Somalia and Yemen, where US support for the Saudi-led coalition and counterterrorism operations contributed to a complex war environment that produced one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Also yesterday, there was an escalation of the chaos in air travel across the region, with major hubs closing airspace and hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded on disrupted routes linking Europe, Asia, and Africa as airlines cancel flights and reroute aircraft in response to expanding hostilities.

In the same vein, the Pentagon confirmed that at least three US service members have been killed and several others wounded since the start of the Middle East conflict following the Iran strikes, marking the first US military fatalities in the escalation. US forces remain engaged in ongoing combat operations against Iranian military infrastructure.

Besides, the US Central Command has shared new video footage it described as fresh missile and air strikes against Iranian targets, showcasing coordinated operations including Tomahawk launches and fighter sorties as part of the broader campaign. US officials said the strikes were decisive action directed at dismantling immediate threats from Tehran’s military apparatus.

Also, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has stated that the ongoing military conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy that would have positive and adverse effects on Nigeria depending on its duration and the quality of domestic policy response to it.

Oil Prices Surge over $80 Per Barrel

Oil prices have surged dramatically in response to the escalating US-Iran conflict. As of March 2, 2026, data from OilPrice.com showed significant gains across major benchmarks.

Nigeria’s oil benchmark, Brent Crude, was $79.04 per barrel, a rise of over 8.47 per cent , while West Texas Intermediate or American oil WTI was selling for $72.39 per barrel or an increase of 8.01 per cent.

The spike followed US and Israeli strikes on Iran, including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which has disrupted global oil supplies and heightened fears of further escalation in the Middle East.

However, before falling slightly, Brent initially surged over 12 per cent to $82 before settling lower than $80 in early trading, driven by the weekend’s military actions, while Brent jumped initially to 10 per cent to about $80, before paring gains.

Analysts warned that prices could reach $100 if the conflict persists, amid OPEC+ output increases and threats to the Strait of Hormuz.

For instance, Barclays increased its Brent crude oil futures forecast to around $100 per barrel, up from $80.00 at the weekend, following the bombing of several Iranian sites by Israel and the United States.

The bank stated in a report that Brent (per barrel) could reach $100 as the market grapples with the potential of a supply disruption in light of the spiralling Middle East security situation. On Saturday, the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, calling for its overthrow and targeting top leaders. Iran responded with missiles that were fired at Israel and Gulf neighboring countries.

Over 3,400 Flights Cancelled in Middle East

Also, the US and Israeli attack on Iran continued to cause severe disruption to flights throughout the Middle East and beyond on Sunday, creating uncertainty for hundreds of thousands of travellers.

Countries across the region closed their airspace, and three of the key airports that connect Europe, Africa and the west to Asia halted operations.

In response, the UK government is planning one of the biggest evacuations in its history. More than 76,000 British citizens have registered their presence in affected areas of the Middle East and this number is expected to rise.

Travellers were either stranded or diverted to other airports after Israel, Qatar, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain shut their airspace.

There were also no flights over the United Arab Emirates, the flight tracking website FlightRadar24 said, after the government announced a “temporary and partial closure” of its airspace. That led to the closure of airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, and the cancellation of thousands of flights by major Middle Eastern and global airlines, including British Airways and Virgin Atlantic. Dubai is the world’s busiest airport for international traffic.

Major international airports in the region also became targets of Iran’s retaliatory strikes. Dubai’s international airport and its landmark Burj Al Arab hotel sustained damage and four people were injured. Abu Dhabi Airports said in a post on X that an incident at Zayed international airport in the UAE’s capital resulted in one death and seven injuries. It later deleted the post.

The three major airlines that operate at those airports – Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad – typically have about 90,000 passengers a day passing through those hubs, and even more travellers headed to destinations in the Middle East, according to the aviation analytics firm Cirium. All three suspended flights.

More than 3,400 flights were cancelled across the seven main airports in the Middle East on Sunday, the Guardian UK reported.

Iran Forms Interim Council to Oversee Transition

Yesterday, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of a constitutional watchdog, was appointed to the temporary council, along with the Iranian president and chief justice.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was confirmed killed after the United States and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran on February 28. Iran retaliated by firing waves of missiles and drones at Israel, and targeting US allies in the region.

Iran said it announced the formation of a three-member transitional council to handle the state duties following the killing of Supreme Leader, Khamenei.

Ayatollah Arafi, member of a powerful constitutional watchdog, was appointed to the temporary council, whose other two members are President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei.

The 67-year-old cleric, who is a member of the Guardian Council that must later choose a supreme leader, was confirmed to the council by the Expediency Council, a powerful arbitration body in Iran.

According to Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, the transitional council will govern the country until an 88-member panel called the ‘Assembly of Experts’ chooses a new supreme leader after almost 37 years of rule by Khamenei.

His killing on Saturday by the joint United States and Israeli forces has raised crucial questions about Iran’s future. Although the leadership council will govern in the interim, the Assembly of Experts “must, as soon as possible,” pick a new supreme leader, according to the Iranian constitution.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani are also expected to play pivotal roles in the transitional council, but it remains to be seen where the balance of power lies.

The commander-in-chief of the IRGC was also killed in the US-Israeli attack on Saturday, the second such killing in less than a year and the next leader of the elite military and economic force is yet to be announced.

IRGC-linked Telegram channels are citing Deputy Chief Ahmad Vahidi, who was appointed to the position by Khamenei two months ago, as a likely candidate.

Earlier on Sunday, Larijani accused the US and Israel of trying to plunder and break apart Iran and warned “secessionist groups” within Iran of a harsh response if they attempt action, state media said.

“The brave soldiers and the great nation of Iran will teach an unforgettable lesson to the international oppressors,” he said.

A former parliamentary speaker and senior policy adviser, Larijani was appointed to advise Khamenei on strategy in nuclear talks with US President Donald Trump’s administration.

On Saturday, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran after weeks of tension between the Americans and Iranians. Shortly after the strikes, Iran retaliated by attacking Israel and Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Three American Soldiers Confirmed Dead

Also yesterday, the Pentagon confirmed that three US service members had been killed in action and five were seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury.

Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions, and are in the process of being returned to duty, it said. “Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The situation is fluid, so out of respect for the families, we will withhold additional information, including the identities of our fallen warriors, until 24 hours after next of kin have been notified,” a statement said.

CPPE: Escalating Conflict Poses Mixed Effects to Nigerian Economy

In the same vein, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has stated that the ongoing military conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has injected a new wave of geopolitical risk into the global economy that would have positive and adverse effects on Nigeria depending on its duration and the quality of domestic policy response to it.

The Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, made this observation yesterday in a policy brief, which stated that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East historically trigger sharp price volatility of $5 to $15 per barrel of crude oil within short periods due to fears of supply disruptions.

Yusuf said: “Iran–US–Israel conflict represents a classic double-edged shock for Nigeria. Higher oil prices may strengthen fiscal and external balances in the short term. However, inflationary pressures, welfare deterioration, capital flow volatility, and global growth risks pose significant countervailing threats.

“The ultimate impact will depend less on external events and more on domestic policy discipline. Strategic savings, production efficiency, macroeconomic prudence, and structural diversification will determine whether Nigeria converts geopolitical turbulence into macroeconomic resilience.”

He stated that every increase in crude oil price would translate into additional export earnings and fiscal revenues for Nigeria, whose immediate benefits include higher crude export receipts, improved foreign exchange inflows, strengthening of external reserves and increased FAAC allocations to all tiers of governments.

The CPPE, however, noted that Nigeria might not be able to optimise these benefits without sustained improvement in crude oil production efficiency and pipeline security.

It said that Nigeria’s current crude output has fluctuated around 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels per day is below its installed capacity and vulnerable to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.

The CPPE also identified inflation transmission from global high crude oil prices as the most immediate domestic risk for Nigeria.

Yusuf said: “Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum regime. Higher international crude prices feed directly into higher petrol, diesel and aviation fuel costs. The likely channels include rising pump prices, increased transportation/logistics costs, higher food distribution expenses and escalating manufacturing and logistics costs”

According to him, energy costs have a strong multiplier effect in Nigeria’s inflation dynamics as transportation and food prices account for a significant share of consumer expenditure.

He said: “With purchasing power already fragile, sustained increases in fuel prices could intensify cost-of-living pressures and deepen poverty levels. Thus, while government revenues may rise, household welfare could deteriorate—creating a divergence between fiscal gains and social outcomes.”

Yusuf also pointed out that dampened global growth could be the medium-term risk of the conflict, which could weaken oil demand and result in price corrections if the conflict would escalate.

He said that higher oil prices typically strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance and improve foreign exchange liquidity, which could reduce short-term pressure on the Naira and reinforce investor confidence.

“However, geopolitical instability also triggers global risk aversion. During periods of uncertainty, capital tends to migrate toward safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury securities and gold. Emerging markets frequently experience portfolio outflows in such episodes.

“Given Nigeria’s relatively shallow capital market and sensitivity to foreign portfolio investment, volatility in global financial conditions could offset part of the FX gains from higher oil prices. The net exchange rate impact will therefore depend on the balance between stronger oil inflows and potential capital reversals,” Yusuf argued.

He averred that the current situation presents an opportunity for disciplined fiscal consolidation rather than expansion in expenditures in the face of potential oil windfalls.

Yusuf suggested that the priority actions should include saving part of any oil windfall in a stabilisation mechanism, reducing fiscal deficits, moderating public debt accumulation and prioritising capital expenditure over recurrent spending.

He said: “Without prudent management, temporary revenue gains could encourage unsustainable spending patterns, increasing vulnerability when oil prices eventually decline.’’

The CPPE, therefore, recommended strengthened oil production capacity, building of fiscal buffers by channeling excess revenues into stabilisation and sovereign savings frameworks and accelerated refining capacity that would deepen domestic refining to reduce vulnerability to imported refined products.

It said that the government should enhance transparency and liquidity in the foreign exchange market to mitigate volatility, deploy targeted social protection to cushion vulnerable households against energy-driven inflation shocks and fast-track economic diversification to expand non-oil exports, manufacturing, agro-processing, ICT, and services to reduce external vulnerability.

Protests Erupt in Karachi, Baghdad after Khamenei’s Death

Besides, demonstrations against the US-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran turned violent in Pakistan and Iraq on Sunday, while in other parts of the world Iranian exiles took to the streets to celebrate the death of Supreme Leader, Khamenei.

At least 23 protesters were killed in clashes in Pakistan, including 10 in the port of Karachi where security guards at the US consulate fired on demonstrators who breached the outer wall, 11 in the northern city of Skardu where the crowd torched a UN office, and two in Islamabad.

In Iraq, police fired tear gas and stun grenades to scatter hundreds of pro-Iranian protesters who had gathered outside the Green Zone diplomatic compound in the capital Baghdad, where the US embassy is located.

But in Paris, a joyous crowd of thousands turned out to celebrate, waving flags of Iran’s pre-revolutionary monarchy, some carrying red roses and bottles of champagne.

Iran’s neighbours to the east and west, Pakistan and Iraq have the world’s largest Shi’ite Muslim populations after Iran, and were the scenes of some of the worst unrest from crowds angry at the US-Israeli attacks.

Protesters in Karachi chanted “Death to America! Death to Israel!” at the consulate, where Reuters reporters heard gunfire and saw tear gas fired in surrounding streets.

Consulate security staff opened fire at a crowd who were pushed back after breaching the outer security layer, said Sukhdev Assardas Hemnani, a local government spokesman. The demonstrators also set a vehicle ablaze outside the main gate and clashed with police, he said.

“We are in constant touch with consulate officials. They are all safe,” Hemnani added. The US Embassy in Islamabad said in a post on X it was monitoring reports of demonstrations and advised U.S. citizens to observe good personal security practices.

The consulate in Karachi and embassy in Islamabad did not respond to Reuters requests for further comment.

Thirty-four people were injured, police said. Karachi’s Civil Hospital said all those killed and injured were hit with gunshots. The provincial government of Sindh ordered an inquiry.

UN Office Set Ablaze

Skardu, where the UN building was set ablaze, is in Gilgit Baltistan in the north, Pakistan’s only province where Shi’ites are the plurality.

“A large number of protesters have gathered outside the UN office and burned down the building,” local government spokesperson Shabbir Mir told Reuters. The figure of 11 killed was provided by a government official and an intelligence official, both on condition of anonymity.

Protesters also took to the streets in other parts of Pakistan, carrying black flags and chanting “Down with America!” and anti-Israel slogans. In the central city of Lahore, police said hundreds gathered outside the U.S. consulate. There were some small-scale clashes with police, who fired tear gas.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi urged protesters to remain peaceful. “We stand with you,” he said, adding that every Pakistani was as grief-stricken as the people of Iran.

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