As Manchester United’s powerbrokers assessed the wreckage from a catastrophic 2024-25 campaign and tried to plot a way forward for the Old Trafford club, they had some targets to aim for.

Year one – secure an immediate return to Europe, probably in the Europa League, via a sixth-placed Premier League finish.

Year two – back in the Champions League, with fourth seen as a realistic finishing spot for the 2026-27 campaign.

The determination was clear, the rationale obvious.

Thanks to two rounds of redundancies, cost-cutting in most departments and more scrutiny on the spending that does take place, Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his management team have succeeded in substantially reducing the club’s losses, from the eye-watering £113.2m to a £13m profit in its first quarter accounts to 30 September, 2025.

Finishing sixth in the Premier League this season compared to 15th last term would just about cover the revenue hit for missing out on Europe for only the second time since the ban on English clubs participating was lifted by Uefa in 1990.

But the cash injection that comes through Champions League qualification is there for all to see.

On Wednesday, United will release their second quarter financial results to 31 December 2025. In their first quarter results, overall revenue for the 2025-26 financial year was predicted to be between £640m and £660m.

Had a Europa League campaign been included in that, there would be an anticipated increase of between £10m and £35m, depending on performance. For the Champions League, the figures would be £50m as a minimum and potentially more than £100m.

It Is why United believe if they follow the desired path, their overall revenues could be more than £800m by 2028.

That is why Monday’s 1-0 win at Everton, which sent them up to fourth place in the current standings, could be so crucial in determining the club’s future.

Under their new shirt sponsorship agreement with Adidas, United lose £10m for each season they do not compete in the Champions League. They have never gone three years without competing in it since the tournament was launched in 1992.

On 4 October, before a 2-0 home win against Sunderland, the club’s chances of a top-five finish were the lowest this season. Stats experts Opta rated their chances of a top-four finish at 3.1% - and 5.8% to make the top five.

When Ruben Amorim was sacked on 5 January after the 1-1 draw at Leeds – either the third match in a current 10-game unbeaten run in the league or the middle result in a sequence of three successive draws against relegation candidates depending on how you view these things – the numbers had risen slightly to 5.9% and 15.7% respectively.

Fast forward to the aftermath of their first outing at Hill Dickinson Stadium, and after five wins out of six under interim boss Michael Carrick, it now stands at 44.2% and 72.0%.

With English clubs so far ahead in the battle to get one of the extra two Champions League slots – after last week’s play-off first-leg ties Portuguese clubs were effectively 13 wins behind, Germany 16, Italy 19 and Spain 22 – it is virtually certain already fifth will be enough.

Carrick will not see it like this of course with 11 games left to play.

But from their current position, three points behind third-placed Aston Villa with a slightly better goal difference, and three ahead of both Chelsea – who visit leaders Arsenal on Sunday – and Liverpool, plus no European distractions, Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher got it right in his assessment of the situation.

“Manchester United are now virtually guaranteed for one of the Champions League places,” said the former Liverpool and England defender. “I can’t see them not making it.”

The spin-offs would be enormous.

‘Completing the job is the task now’

Carrick has also made a compelling case for getting the manager’s job on a full-time basis, especially as a couple of the more experienced, successful and Premier League-ready alternatives Thomas Tuchel and Carlo Ancelotti have committed themselves to their international jobs at England and Brazil beyond the summer.

Roberto de Zerbi has been sacked by Marseille, while Oliver Glasner might well suffer the same fate at Crystal Palace before he leaves when his contract expires in the summer. Their credentials wouldn’t look quite so attractive against Carrick’s if he did get United back into Europe’s elite club competition.

They would also be a more attractive proposition commercially.

At a time when questions are starting to be asked about the club’s ability to do deals and the lack of a training ground or kit sponsor, that is quite important.

In addition, although it is some way in the future, if United’s new stadium plans eventually proceed, funding will be based around a significant percentage of expensive ‘premium’ seats.

While club officials have stressed no decisions around ticket prices have been taken, a document sent to season ticket holders in October placed indicative prices at £4,830 for season tickets on the lower tier of the stand opposite the dugouts, with hospitality prices rising to £424,800 for a 16-seat large private box in the middle tier of the main stand, level with the halfway line.

Clearly, supporters are more likely to be willing to pay such figures if they were watching a team competing for major trophies, something that has not happened since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013.

The club's huge debt, way in excess of £1bn including outstanding transfer fee payments, might at least not need to be increased too.

Over the past six weeks, Carrick has repeatedly stressed he is not getting carried away by his side’s impressive form. After the Everton win, a question was put to him about the triumph providing belief around Champions League qualification on a weekend when Villa and Chelsea both drew at home and Liverpool needed an injury-time winner at Nottingham Forest.

Carrick’s answer bore no relation to the core point he was being asked. There is logic behind this. Results can change narratives very quickly in football.

When he took over at Middlesbrough in 2022, Carrick won 15 of his first 20 league games, then only three of the next 12. A potential automatic promotion place turned into a play-off meeting with Coventry, which Middlesbrough lost. They never got as close to promotion again under the former England midfielder.

He knows his team are well-placed to seal their Champions League return. Completing the job is the task now. (BBC)

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