ONCE firmly dominated by the now major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the South-South has witnessed a dramatic political shift.

A wave of defections, capped by the collapse of the PDP structure in Edo State during the 2024 governorship election, has effectively transferred regional dominance to the federally controlled All Progressives Congress (APC).

At present, the ruling APC controls the South-South states of Akwa Ibom State, which produced the incumbent Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, as well as Bayelsa State, Delta State, Rivers State, Cross River State and Edo State.

But the growing wave of defections to the ruling APC across the South-South has triggered a fundamental question among residents and political observers: beyond the symbolism of alignment with the centre, what tangible benefits accrue to the people?

In recent months, governors and high-ranking political actors across the zone have either defected to, or aligned with, the APC. The realignments, coming ahead of the 2027 general elections, have dramatically altered the political map of the oil-rich zone.

In Cross River, the defection of key figures, including Senator Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe from the PDP to the APC, has deepened the ruling party’s hold.

Similar shifts have occurred in Edo, where post-2024 governorship election defections gave the APC a commanding majority in the State House of Assembly and complete control of the state’s National Assembly seats.

In Bayelsa, long regarded as a PDP bastion, Governor Douye Diri’s defection stunned observers. Delta followed suit when Governor Sheriff Oborevwori formally joined the APC in April 2025, a move supporters described as strategic and development-driven, while Governor Siminalyi Fubara recently joined the ship last December, possibly to escape the unabated political turmoil between him and his estranged godfather, Nyesom Wike.

Proponents of the defections insist that political alignment with the Federal Government enhances access to resources, accelerates infrastructure delivery and strengthens intergovernmental collaboration.

In Bayelsa, supporters point to federal approvals for projects such as the Nembe-Brass Road and the Agge Seaport as evidence of improved goodwill.

A stakeholder, Bodmas Kemepadei, described Governor Diri’s move as “forward-looking”, arguing that synergy with Abuja positions the state to benefit from emerging economic opportunities.

Similarly, in Delta, allies of Governor Oborevwori maintain that political harmony with the centre removes bureaucratic bottlenecks and facilitates development.

In Edo, defectors have justified their decisions as necessary to secure constituency projects and align with federal priorities under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

The argument resonates in Nigeria’s highly centralised fiscal structure, where states depend heavily on federal allocations and executive goodwill.

Yet, beyond official narratives, scepticism runs deep.

Supporters call it pragmatic politics. Critics describe it as a survival strategy. Many citizens see little change in their daily realities.

Rivers: Between strategy and survival

IN Rivers State, the political realignment has unfolded amid intense political tensions. Some analysts argue that alignment with the APC has offered strategic protection for political actors navigating conflicts with the centre.

In December 2025, two Rivers State senators, Allwell Onyesoh (Rivers East) and Barinada Mpigi (Rivers South-East), along with six members of the House of Representatives, defected from PDP to APC.

These lawmakers, aligned with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, cited irreconcilable internal divisions and leadership crises within the PDP as reasons for their move.

Also, 26 state House of Assembly members, led by Martins Amaehule, dumped the PDP for the second time and joined the APC.

Political analyst Opunabo Inkotari, a former Senior Special Adviser on Media to former Governor Nyesom Wike, dismissed claims that defection inherently improves governance.

“Governors receive their statutory allocations.

They are constitutionally empowered to run their states,” he said.

“With or without defection, they are expected to discharge their duties creditably. Defection is political. It does not automatically change governance outcomes,” he stated.

He said: “So with or without the political parties, it is expected that the governors are going to discharge their duties creditably. The defection is just political.

I think most of them are just scared because of the declaration of the state of emergency in Rivers State, so they are afraid it may extend to them, and that is why most governors defected to the APC to avoid that. Not that it has an impact on governors.”

He suggested that fear may be a driving factor. “Some governors are scared, scared of impeachment, scared of losing elections, scared of political isolation,” he argued. “It is not necessarily about the masses.”

Inkotari further questioned the narrative that APC dominance guarantees electoral strength.

“If there is a truly free and fair election, the ruling party may not be as invincible as it appears,” he said. “I can tell you that the APC will lose if it goes to the polls; that is why the National Assembly is playing hanky panky with the Electoral Act.

“First, they omitted the electronic transmission. Now, they say that if that doesn’t work, they should use manuals. And you know that the electronic body will output manuals.”

Also speaking, a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Andrew Uchendu, who defected from the APC, regretted that governance activities in the state had come to a standstill irrespective of the governor moving to the ruling party, adding that a population of over six million people should not be “held hostage by two persons.”

According to him, both Rivers State and the country as a whole are in need of rescue. He emphasised that the ADC in Rivers State is operating strictly in line with the party’s constitution and directives from the national secretariat, stressing that no individual is permitted to impose party officers.

Also, the Chairman of the Central Planning Committee for the unveiling of the ADC in Rivers State, Dr Chukwudi Dimkpa, disclosed that the committee has largely put the necessary modalities in place to ensure a successful outing for the party.

The Cross River question

In Cross River State,

the defection of Senator Jarigbe Agom Jarigbe from the PDP to the APC intensified the ruling party’s grip. The move followed a broader pattern of opposition figures crossing over, further consolidating APC dominance.

However, residents remain sceptical.

“We keep hearing about alignment with the centre,” said Kuku Eworo Oden, a trader in Calabar. “But what has really changed? Food prices are rising. Businesses are struggling. Our roads are still bad.

If defection is for development, we should be seeing it.”

Another resident, Monday Osim, questioned the logic that political alignment automatically translates into economic transformation.

“They say connection to Abuja brings projects. But investment cannot come where infrastructure is weak. Look at the roads linking Okometa and Iwuru. Farmers cannot easily move their produce. Small businesses are closing. So where is the benefit?” he asked.

Political analyst Akpang Rajunor believes defections are rarely about policy.

“Politicians align with power and resources,” he said. “Some do so to remain politically relevant. Others move to secure appointments or protect themselves.

The absence of strong ideological foundations in our parties makes defections easy and consequence-free.”Rajunor warned that the growing concentration of power in one party could weaken democratic oversight.

“When opposition shrinks, policy scrutiny weakens. Accountability suffers.

Ultimately, governance becomes less responsive,” he noted.

Edo’s political realignment

EDO State presents one of the clearest examples of how defections can alter institutional balance. After the APC won the September 2024 governorship election, defections from the PDP followed swiftly.

From a House of Assembly initially dominated by the PDP with 15 seats, the political tide shifted dramatically. Today, the APC holds 20 of the 24 seats. At the National Assembly level, the APC now controls all 12 seats from the state.

Speaker Blessing Agbebaku defended his decision to defect, arguing that it was in his constituency’s interest.

“This is not about party allegiance,” he said at plenary. “It is about the growth and development of my area. As Speaker, if I throw away this position because of party affiliation, I am not ready to serve my people.”

Similarly, Senator Neda Imasuen described his defection from the Labour Party as a strategic alignment with federal priorities.

Yet, legal practitioner, President Aigbokhan sees the trend differently.

“No constituents are consulted when politicians decamp,” he said. “It is always about personal calculation. If they truly believe in democracy, they should resign and seek a fresh mandate.”

Veteran journalist Tony Abolo was blunt. “Democracy is about choice and ideological alternatives,” he said. “But what we practise is politics of belonging. Politicians just want to belong to the party in power. It is self-interest, not service.”

Bayelsa’s strategic gamble

Bayelsa’s defection story is particularly symbolic. Since 1999, the state had been governed by the PDP and was widely considered its fortress. Governor Douye Diri’s decision to join the APC shocked many observers.

Supporters insist it was a calculated move in the state’s interest. Bodmas Kemepadei, a Niger Delta youth leader, described the defection as “a strategic and forward-looking decision.”

“In a federation where political synergy influences development flow, alignment with the centre positions Bayelsa advantageously,” he said. “This is about economic opportunities, infrastructure and youth inclusion.”

Mrs Agnes Binawari, who attended the governor’s declaration rally, rejected suggestions of selfish motives. “You saw the crowd that day,” she said. “Bayelsans are in alignment. The President has shown goodwill through projects like the Nembe-Brass Road. This is not selfishness.”

Wisdom Ikuli, an activist, echoed that sentiment. “Bayelsa cannot afford to remain isolated when other states have moved to the centre,” he said. “In Nigeria’s zero-sum politics, alignment matters.”

Yet critics argue that federal allocations are constitutionally determined and not party dependent.

Best Orusi, a political analyst, described the development argument as exaggerated.

“Statutory allocations remain the same,” he said. “The idea that defection automatically increases revenue is misleading.”

He added that perceived threats from anti-corruption agencies often influence political calculations.

“There is always that fear, if you are not with the ruling party, agencies may come after you. Whether real or exaggerated, that perception shapes behaviour.”

Delta’s Divided Opinion

In Delta State, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s defection in April 2025 reshaped political alignments. Supporters framed it as pragmatic.

A senior APC chieftain said: “This is about positioning Delta to attract goodwill and cooperation from Abuja. Development thrives where there is harmony.”

Governor Oborevwori himself described the move as being “in the best interest of Delta State.”

But Professor Tony Afejuku rejected that justification outright. “All the parties put together constitute the current plight of our destiny,” he said. “There is no ideological difference. Politicians move for personal reasons. Let them keep running; Nigeria cannot continue like this indefinitely.”

For activist Best Orusi, the danger lies in creeping one-party dominance. “When governors, legislators and heavyweights converge under one party, opposition weakens. And when opposition weakens, democracy suffers,” he warned.

A recurring theme across the region is the erosion of ideology. Political analyst Mark Thomas observed, “I do not see clear ideological differences among parties. So for many politicians, switching platforms is like changing vehicles. It does not change the direction.”

This ideological vacuum, analysts say, makes defections less about conviction and more about convenience.

On the streets of Calabar, Yenagoa, Port Harcourt, Benin and Asaba, citizens express fatigue rather than excitement.

For John Akpoko, a civil servant in Delta, the debate is simple: “If alignment with the centre brings roads, jobs and transparency, good. But if it is just political musical chairs, then nothing changes.”

Across the South-South, unemployment remains high. Infrastructure deficits persist. Small businesses struggle under inflationary pressure.

The spectacle of defections may dominate headlines, but citizens measure governance by lived experience.

Democracy at a Crossroads

Rajunor said. “Without alternatives, accountability weakens.”

As 2027 approaches, the significance of these defections will ultimately be judged not by party registration numbers or welcome rallies, but by measurable improvements in economic conditions, infrastructure and institutional transparency.

Until then, many citizens remain cautiously observant, watching whether this unprecedented political convergence will translate into tangible dividends or remain, as some fear, merely another chapter in Nigeria’s long tradition of elite realignment.

The question lingers across the creeks and cities of the South-South: when politicians move, do the people move forward with them? (The Guardian)

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