Nigeria has failed to meet its assigned oil production quota for the sixth consecutive time in January 2026, according to data released in the latest monthly report by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The report, published mid-Wednesday, showed that Nigeria’s crude oil output fell to 1.478 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, representing a 1.27 percent decline from 1.497 million bpd recorded in December 2025, based on secondary sources.

The decline highlighted persistent constraints on Nigeria’s production capacity, including infrastructure bottlenecks, crude theft, security challenges and operational inefficiencies across key oil-producing regions.

OPEC compiled production figures using two channels: direct communication from member countries and secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms.

While secondary source data showed a decline in Nigeria’s output, figures submitted through direct communication presented a slightly more positive trend, though still below the country’s assigned quota.

According to OPEC, Nigeria’s production quota stands at 1.5 million bpd, meaning the January output reflected a shortfall of about 80,000 bpd.

Direct communication figures estimated Nigeria’s January production at 1.459 million bpd, up 2.6 per cent from 1.422 million bpd in December.

Despite missing its target, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, ahead of Libya, which recorded output of 1.304 million bpd during the same period.

At the broader group level, OPEC noted that total crude oil production by participating members of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) averaged 42.448 million bpd in January 2026, representing a month-on-month decline of 440,000 bpd, based on secondary sources.

The continued underperformance relative to quota raises fresh concerns about Nigeria’s ability to ramp up production in line with its fiscal assumptions, particularly as the country relies heavily on oil revenue to fund its budget and stabilise foreign exchange inflows. (Business Day)

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