Despite the federal government’s ambitious oil production target of two million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, show that output has grown by just 1.4 per cent over the past five years.

An analysis of oil production figures from the commission by Vanguard revealed that total annual crude oil production rose to 599.635 million barrels in 2025, compared with 591.195 million barrels recorded in 2021. This indicates that average daily output increased marginally from 1.61mbpd in 2021 to 1.64mbpd in 2025.

At a daily average of 2mbpd in 2026, the federal government expects oil production to grow by 21.7 per cent from the 1.64mbpd recorded in 2025.

However, a review of production trends over the last five years suggests that achieving this target would require a significant and sustained increase in output.

Further checks showed that average daily production in 2022 dropped sharply to 1.377mbpd, representing a 14.94 per cent decline from the 1.61mbpd recorded in 2021.

Output, however, rebounded by 6.75 per cent in 2023 to 1.47mbpd, before rising by 5.44 per cent in 2024 to 1.55mbpd. Production increased further by 5.93 per cent in 2025 to 1.64mbpd compared to the previous year.

Cumulatively, the data indicate that Nigeria produced about 2.8 billion barrels of crude oil over the five-year period.

Output target achievable — NNPC

Despite the data, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bayo Ojulari, has insisted that the federal government’s oil production target was realistic and achievable.

Speaking in Abuja, Ojulari said the improvements recorded in 2025, combined with a reduction in oil theft and pipeline vandalism, would support higher production levels in 2026.

He noted that unlike last year, when a production target of 2.06mbpd set by the government was not achieved, the current 2mbpd target was proposed by the national oil company itself.

He said: “For 2026, we put in a monthly forecast plan, in which we engaged the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Budget and Planning, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and other critical areas. I engaged them personally, one-on-one.

“Following that, we then issued a formal letter from NNPC to NUPRC, copied to all these parties to say, this is our projections for the year. I was very pleased when I realised that the Federal Executive Council, when they had their meetings, adopted our number as the basis for the main plan.

“They also did one thing which is important. They also put in the aspiration, which is for the target of two million barrels for 2026. So for this year, we have a target of two million barrels. But the plan, the budget, is about 1.8 plus. So we are not over-committing,” he added.

Mindful of past failures, the federal government urged International Oil Companies, IOCs, operating in Nigeria to take concrete steps to ramp up crude oil production.

Speaking in Abuja, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said the government had created an enabling environment for oil companies to operate effectively.

Lokpobiri stressed that the performance of the petroleum industry was fundamentally tied to the success of upstream operators, noting that the economy remained largely dependent on foreign exchange earnings from the sector.

He said: “I have always maintained that the success of the oil and gas industry is largely dependent on the success of the upstream. From upstream to midstream and downstream, everything is connected. If we do not produce crude oil, there will be nothing to refine and nothing to distribute. Therefore, the success of the petroleum sector begins with the success of the upstream.

“I am also happy with the team I have had the privilege to work with, a community of committed professionals. From the government’s standpoint, it is important to state clearly that there is no discrimination between indigenous producers and other operators.

“You are all companies operating in the same Nigerian space, under the same law. The Petroleum Industry Act, PIA, does not differentiate between local and foreign companies. While you may operate at different scales, you are governed by the same regulations. Our expectation, therefore, is that we will continue to work together, collaborate, and strengthen the upstream sector for the benefit of all Nigerians.”

The minister pledged that the federal government would continue to sustain its support for the industry through reforms, tax incentives and regulatory adjustments aimed at unlocking the sector’s full potential.

“We have provided extensive incentives to unlock the sector’s potential through reforms, tax reliefs and regulatory changes. The question now is: what will you do in return? The government has given a lot. Now is the time for industry players to reciprocate by investing, producing and delivering results,” he said.

Lokpobiri added that Nigeria’s success in the upstream sector would have positive spillover effects across Africa, while failure would negatively impact the continent’s midstream and downstream segments.

“We have talked enough. This is the time to take concrete actions that will deliver measurable results and transform this industry,” he stated.

In a note to Vanguard, petroleum economics expert, Professor Wumi Iledare, said the oil output would not be achieved through policy improvisation but by taking concrete steps to implement changes.

“Nigeria’s failure to meet its OPEC production quota in 2025 highlights deep-seated structural constraints—mature producing fields, delayed investments, persistent crude losses, and budgeting practices that often overlook oil market fundamentals.

‘’Addressing these challenges requires sustained investment, institutional stability, and credible implementation of existing reforms, not simply revised targets or discretionary incentives,’’ he said.

Iledare pointed out that the “recent announcement of targeted incentives for deep-offshore projects, such as Bonga Southwest, has generated strong reactions.

‘’While attracting investment is essential in a competitive global environment, it is equally important that such measures reinforce, rather than undermine, the rules-based framework of the Petroleum Industry Act. Investor confidence rests on policy consistency, transparency and institutional discipline.

“As Nigeria looks ahead to 2026, progress in the oil and gas sector will be determined less by policy declarations and more by governance quality, credible implementation and alignment with economic fundamentals. Consolidation, not policy improvisation, should guide expectations for the year ahead.’’ (Vanguard)

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