Fresh security concerns have emerged over the growing presence of Boko Haram factions and allied armed groups operating from the Kainji National Park axis, with military strategists warning that failure by the Federal Government to dismantle the terror enclave could see jihadist attacks spread to major cities in the South-West within months.

The alarm follows last Tuesday’s coordinated attacks on Woro and neighbouring communities in Kaiama Local Government Area of Kwara State, where no fewer than 176 residents were reportedly killed in one of the deadliest assaults in the state’s history.

The attackers struck after villagers reportedly refused to comply with militant demands, underscoring the expanding reach of violent extremist groups beyond the country’s traditional North-Eastern theatre.

Security experts say the killings mark a dangerous shift in Nigeria’s terror geography, bringing insurgent activity perilously close to the country’s economic and population centres.

Barely 90 kilometres from Ilorin, the Kwara State capital, and less than 400 kilometres from Lagos, Kainji National Park, according to security sources, has quietly transformed from a wildlife sanctuary into a sprawling hideout for jihadist groups, bandits and organised criminal networks.

Spanning about 5,340 square kilometres of dense forest, savannah and rocky terrain across Kwara and Niger states, the park now offers cover for insurgents displaced by military operations in the North-West and North-East, including factions linked to Boko Haram.

According to military and counter-terrorism analysts, the scale of killings attributed to insurgent commander Abubakar Saidu, also known as Sadiku, within a single week in Kwara rivals casualty figures recorded in many Boko Haram attacks across the North-East in 2025.

They warn that unless an intelligence-driven, large-scale operation is urgently launched across the Kwara–Kogi–Niger axis, the militants could consolidate their foothold, establish sleeper cells, and exploit forest corridors and weak rural surveillance to push into the South-West.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, a former Troop Commander and Director of Information and Communication Technology at the Nigerian Army Signals Headquarters, Maj.-Gen. Peter Aro (retd.), cautioned against treating the crisis as a conventional war.

He said the proximity of Woro to Ilorin should be a major red flag.

“Terror groups do not move suddenly; they advance gradually. They establish sleeper cells, spy on communities, map routes, test response times and exploit weak governance before launching major attacks,” Aro said.

According to him, any indication of sleeper cells around the South-West would suggest infiltration is already underway.

He warned that complacency would be costly, stressing that forest belts, border communities and major transit corridors must now be treated as priority security zones.

Aro singled out Ondo State as particularly vulnerable due to its vast forests, poor rural access and weak surveillance infrastructure.

He said, “Terrorism spreads quietly before it explodes. Nigeria still has time to stop gradual infiltration into the South-West, but denial and delay will only raise the cost.”

He described the country’s security challenge as an asymmetric conflict in which attackers do not wear uniforms or hold territory but hide in forests, blend into rural communities, strike swiftly and disappear.

Aro warned that once the rains intensify, dense vegetation, flooded tracks and cloud cover would make the Kainji forest even harder to penetrate, effectively turning it into a permanent insurgent base.

Also speaking with Sunday PUNCH, a former Commandant of Army Signals and Chief of Defence Training and Planning, Maj.-Gen. Ishola Williams (retd.), criticised the military’s long-running counter-terrorism strategy, saying Nigeria had failed to learn or adapt despite over a decade of fighting insurgency.

He said the same tactics had been recycled for 10 to 15 years while the security situation steadily deteriorated.

Williams questioned the impact of past international assistance, including support from American and British forces and the Multinational Joint Task Force.

“How can small groups of 200 attackers overrun communities and kill people without resistance? Are we not shamed?” he asked.

He expressed concern over reports that security agencies were warned ahead of some attacks but failed to act due to inadequate firepower.

“In a well-organised country, people would resign or be sacked for such failures. Are we accountable in Nigeria?” Williams queried.

He also accused the military of insufficient concern for civilian lives, alleging that troops often remained in their locations even after deadly attacks on communities.

A retired Assistant Commissioner of Police, Segun Onifade, who served in the area for five years, said Kainji National Park reflected Nigeria’s wider failure to secure vast rural spaces.

He called for permanent joint military, police and intelligence bases within and around the park, rather than occasional raids.

“Forest access routes must be controlled, illegal mining camps dismantled and local informant networks disrupted,” Onifade said.

He urged Integrated inter-state coordination between Kwara and Niger, backed by shared intelligence platforms and a unified command structure for the park corridor.

Onifade also called for the revival of ranger services with armed protection, drones and satellite surveillance, stressing the need for a new security-conservation model.

“Protected forests can no longer be treated as neutral ecological spaces. They are now frontline security zones,” he said.

Once known for its elephants, antelopes and ranger outposts, Kainji National Park now bears the scars of neglect. Ranger stations are abandoned, conservation infrastructure has collapsed, and vast stretches remain ungoverned.

A Kwara-born security analyst based in Ibadan, Abdulyekeen Mohd Bashir, said this vacuum created an opening for armed groups.

“Terrorists dislodged from Zamfara and other North-West theatres regrouped in Kainji because it was loosely secured,” he said.

Bashir said Boko Haram factions, elements linked to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and bandit groups now operate in the corridor, sometimes clashing over resources and territory.

Another analyst, Akeem Olatunji, said the Kaiama attack exposed weaknesses in Nigeria’s early-warning and response systems.

“Warnings were issued, quickly dismissed, and everyone went to sleep until the attackers struck,” he said.

Queries about Super Tucano jets

Sunday PUNCH gathered that the 407 Air Combat Training Group of the Nigerian Air Force in Kainji served as one of the key bases where the A-29 Super Tucano fighter jets acquired during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari were warehoused.

The 407 ACTG, a strategic Air Force unit located within the Kainji axis, is responsible for the training of combat pilots and the conduct of air combat operations.

The unit plays a critical role in national security, including the operational deployment of Alpha Jets and the A-29 Super Tucano aircraft for counter-insurgency missions.

A top security source familiar with air operations, who spoke to Sunday PUNCH on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak on the matter, said some of the Super Tucano jets procured under the Buhari administration were stationed at the Kainji air base, barely minutes away by air from Woro community.

“Some of those fighter jets bought during the Buhari era were at the 407 Air Combat Training Group base in Kainji. From there, it is about 10 minutes by air to Woro, where the attack happened,” the source said.

He noted that the Super Tucanos were heavily deployed across several theatres in the North-East during the Buhari administration, contributing significantly to the degradation of Boko Haram’s operational capacity.

“I honestly do not understand why similar air power was not deployed in this axis, considering the level of threat,” the source added.

A civil society organisation, the Foundation for Peace Professionals, raised questions over the conduct of security agencies during the deadly attack.

The group’s Executive Director, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, questioned why security agencies did not deploy air assets despite the presence of an Air Force base between Wawa and New Bussa, barely 10 to 15 minutes by air from the attack location.

“Why didn’t the government deploy the Air Force to prevent the attackers from completing their operation while the attack was ongoing?” he asked, adding that even basic aerial surveillance could have helped track and apprehend the assailants.

Hamzat attributed the worsening insecurity to the Kainji corridor linking parts of Niger, Kebbi and Kwara states, which he said had become a haven for armed groups due to vast ungoverned spaces, dense forests, weak security presence and multiple escape routes.

He warned that the area offers a low-risk operational environment that allows attackers to strike and withdraw with little fear of arrest, a situation now being exploited by Boko Haram splinter factions, JNIM-linked elements and criminal bandit networks that sometimes compete but also share logistics, intelligence and routes.

He further blamed poor inter-state security coordination and a breakdown of early warning and rapid response systems, noting that credible warnings were allegedly not treated with sustained seriousness.

According to him, failures in operational decision-making, including the absence of rapid reinforcement and post-attack pursuit, have emboldened armed groups.

“If aerial surveillance had been carried out, by now we should have heard of arrests or counter-operations by security forces,” he added.

Lagos, Osun fortify boundaries

Meanwhile, the Lagos and Osun state governments said they had intensified security measures amid growing concerns over potential terrorist infiltration into the South-West.

Speaking to Sunday PUNCH, the Lagos State Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Gbenga Omotosho, said as part of its proactive strategy, the state was relying on men of the Lagos Neighbourhood Safety Corps to provide intelligence to security agencies.

Omotosho said plans were underway to recruit an additional 1,500 operatives to expand the corps’ presence across communities statewide.

The commissioner also highlighted the Rapid Response Squad, which recently received about 160 operational vehicles from the Lagos State Security Trust Fund.

He noted that corporate organisations and private individuals were supporting the initiative to ensure security agencies had the resources needed to operate effectively.

According to him, Lagos is also working closely with other South-West states to ensure a unified and robust regional security strategy.

Omotosho emphasised that citizen participation is crucial for the success of these measures, urging residents to report any unusual activity in their communities.

“Security is everybody’s responsibility, not just the government’s,” he added.

Speaking with one of our correspondents, the Special Adviser on Security to Osun State Governor, Samuel Ojo, said the state boundary with Kwara had been fortified with more security personnel.

Ojo also said residents of Osun communities along Kwara boundaries had also been sensitised to the need for timely and actionable intelligence to prevent infiltration.

He said, “As I am talking with you, our boundaries with Kwara have been fortified with more security personnel. We have soldiers, police operatives and men of Nigeria Security and Children Civil Defence Corps there.

“We have also told residents to be careful of welcoming strangers. They are to report suspicious movement within the town and in ungoverned spaces. The state government is working hard to secure all our boundaries, with special attention being given to those located close to the states prone to insurgency,” Ojo said.

Also, the governor of Kwara state Mallam Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq said senior security officers, including the General Officer Commanding of the Nigerian Army’s 2 Division and a Deputy Inspector-General of Police, are in the state to tackle the sutuation.

The governor made this known in a statement by his Chief Press Secretary Rafiu Ajakaye, made available to Sunday PUNCH on Saturday during the visit of the Vice President Kashim Shettima, who led a Federal Government delegation to condole with the people of Kaiama and the Kwara State over the attacks.

The governor commended the swift intervention of the Federal Government, confirming that troops had been deployed and that Operation Savannah Shield was already underway.

Efforts to obtain responses from the governments of Ogun, Ondo and Oyo states proved unsuccessful, as their respective information commissioners declined to respond to calls and text messages.

Similarly, attempts to reach Osun State’s Special Adviser on Security, Mr. Samuel Ojo, and Ondo State Governor’s Chief Press Secretary, Ebenezer Adeniyan, were unsuccessful, as both had not responded to calls or messages as of press time. (Sunday PUNCH)

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