Nigeria may resume the issuance of petrol and diesel import permits as early as mid-February, the first batch in 2026, to ward off a possible tightening of supply in the country after a temporary halt by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), THISDAY learnt Thursday.

According to industry sources quoted by Argus, the NMDPRA is expected to begin approving new import licences later this month or by early March latest. The move would mark the first approvals for 2026, following a regulatory pause aimed at limiting imports strictly to volumes required to cover shortfalls in domestic refinery output.

The sources told Argus that the delay in issuing permits was partly linked to leadership changes at the authority, following the exit of its former chief executive, Farouk Ahmed, on December 17. The transition, they said, had a knock-on effect on internal decision-making, slowing approvals during the early part of the year.

Under established practice, the NMDPRA issues refined product import permits on a quarterly basis, with each approval typically valid for three months, raising questions about how the framework would be applied if permits are issued almost halfway into the first quarter.

Market conditions have also shifted as crude receipts at the Dangote refinery declined to about 250,000 barrels per day in January, down from roughly 350,000 bpd in December, marking a 16-month low, the report said.

The fall in deliveries suggested lower run rates at the facility’s crude distillation unit, increasing the likelihood of refined product shortfalls that imports may be needed to bridge. Argus had earlier reported maintenance activities on key processing units, including the petrol-producing Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) and the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU).

Although petrol demand softened during the Christmas and early January holiday period, traders have said tighter domestic supply and higher refinery asking prices have renewed interest in imported cargoes.

Asking prices for petrol jumped by about 14 per cent to N799 per litre on January 27, after earlier reductions to N699 per litre in December, making foreign barrels more competitive in recent trading sessions. Market participants said new import permits would allow marketers to supplement local supply while the regulator continues to prioritise domestic refining.

Also, the Dangote Refinery has warned that petrol pump prices could approach N1,000 per litre and impose an additional annual cost of about N1.75 trillion on the economy if marketers increasingly rely on coastal transportation rather than gantry loading for fuel evacuation and if this cost is passed on to consumers.

In a note on X Thursday, the company said rising coastal logistics costs pose a significant risk to fuel affordability, despite Nigeria’s growing domestic refining capacity. The refinery noted that coastal transportation of petrol can add about N75 per litre to the final cost of the product, a margin that could push prices sharply higher if passed on to consumers.

Dangote Refinery said gantry loading remains the most cost-efficient evacuation method because it eliminates port charges, maritime levies and vessel-related costs that ultimately do not benefit end users. These additional costs, it said, are embedded in coastal shipping and inevitably reflected in pump prices.

The company stressed that marketers are not compelled to evacuate products through any specific channel, noting that buyers are free to choose between gantry loading and coastal shipping based on their commercial preferences. It added that the refinery does not impose restrictions on evacuation modes and has continued to provide multiple options to market participants.

However, it cautioned that widespread reliance on coastal logistics would have major cost implications for the economy. Nigeria’s average daily consumption, estimated at about 50 million litres of petrol and 14 million litresof diesel, means that the extra N75 per litre associated with coastal evacuation could translate into an additional annual burden of approximately N1.752 trillion.

Dangote Refinery argued that this cost would ultimately be borne by consumers and businesses, undermining recent gains achieved through local refining. It said domestic refining has already delivered substantial price relief compared with the period of heavy import dependence.

“Gantry loading is identified as the most cost-efficient evacuation method, as it eliminates port charges, maritime levies and vessel-related costs that do not benefit end users. Marketers are free to choose between gantry and coastal loading, and the refinery does not impose restrictions on evacuation modes.

“Coastal logistics can add about N75 per litre to petrol costs, potentially pushing PMS pump prices close to N1,000 per litre if passed on to consumers. Nigeria’s daily consumption averages about 50 million litres of PMS and 14 million litres of diesel, meaning reliance on coastal logistics could impose an additional annual cost of approximately N1.752 trillion,” the company stated.

Meanwhile, Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) has reiterated its commitment to its Vision 2030 growth strategy as it prepares to lead exhibitors at the 15th Gateway International Trade Fair, scheduled to hold in Ogun State.

The Pan-African conglomerate, which is partnering with the Ogun State Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (OGUNCCIMA) as a lead sponsor of the fair, said its participation underscores its readiness to forge strategic partnerships with governments, agencies and private sector stakeholders to achieve its target of becoming a $100 billion revenue company by 2030.

The 2026 edition of the trade fair is themed: “Promoting Business through Partnership.”

In a statement issued Thursday, ahead of the event, Group Chief Branding and Communication Officer of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, said the company’s participation aligns with its long-term industrial expansion strategy, which focuses on cross-border investments and reducing dependence on imports in key sectors, including energy, manufacturing and infrastructure.

Chiejina explained that the Vision 2030 strategy is designed to position the conglomerate among the world’s top 100 companies while strengthening Africa’s capacity for industrialisation and economic self-sufficiency.

He noted that the ambition of the company, as championed by its President, Aliko Dangote, goes beyond establishing factories to building Africa’s capacity to feed its population, power its economy and sustain industrial development.

According to him, the trade fair will provide a platform for manufacturers, investors and government institutions to explore partnerships that will encourage local production and reduce import dependence.

Chiejina disclosed that under its expansion drive, Dangote Group plans to increase the production capacity of its single-train petroleum refinery from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day. He added that the company also intends to expand its fertiliser production capacity from three million metric tonnes to 12 million metric tonnes annually.

“In the same vein, our cement business is also on track to reach 90 million tonnes by 2030,” he said.

He further stated that all subsidiaries of the Dangote Group would participate in the trade fair, offering visitors opportunities to explore business partnerships and investment prospects across the company’s value chains.

Chiejina added that visitors to the Dangote pavilion would also have the opportunity to purchase some of the company’s products at discounted prices. The products to be displayed include cement, sugar, salt, fertiliser and rice.

He also highlighted the company’s growing investments in agriculture, revealing that Dangote Group has commenced the development of six large-scale rice milling plants across Kano, Jigawa, Zamfara, Niger, Kebbi and Sokoto states.

According to him, the plants will have a combined milling capacity of 1.5 million metric tonnes annually and are expected to strengthen food security and reduce reliance on imported rice.

Chiejina noted that the group’s investments in agriculture are part of broader efforts to complement its existing operations in manufacturing and infrastructure in line with its Vision 2030 roadmap. He commended the federal government’s ongoing economic reforms, stating that the policies were gradually restoring stability to the Nigerian economy and were necessary for sustainable development and poverty reduction.

The Dangote spokesman also praised OGUNCCIMA for selecting a theme that reflects the importance of collaboration in driving economic growth.

“Given the current focus of both the federal government and Ogun State, as well as other states, on agriculture as a key driver of economic recovery and growth, there can be no more relevant theme for this year’s fair,” he said.

Earlier, President of OGUNCCIMA, Niyi Oshiyemi, commended Dangote Group for its longstanding partnership and support for the Gateway International Trade Fair.

Oshiyemi described Dangote Group as one of Africa’s most formidable business conglomerates and a major contributor to Nigeria’s economic development through investments in manufacturing and industrial production.

He said the company’s continued participation in the fair underscores its commitment to promoting commerce, innovation and economic exchange.

According to him, Dangote Group has played a vital role in sustaining the trade fair over the years and has demonstrated strong corporate social responsibility through its investments and support for economic development initiatives.

Oshiyemi added that the group’s investments in Ogun State have contributed significantly to industrial growth and employment generation in the state.

The 2026 Gateway International Trade Fair is expected to attract local and international exhibitors, investors and policymakers seeking to explore business opportunities, strengthen partnerships and promote economic development across sectors. (Arise News)

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