By TUNDE RAHMAN

Kano State, the bastion of progressive politics in Northern Nigeria, is going through a turbulent time. This turbulence has caused a tectonic shift in the state's political map. Mallam Abba Kabir Yusuf, nicknamed Abba Gida-Gida by his numerous supporters, the only governor elected on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and a key lieutenant and protégé of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso – leader of both the party and the Kawankwasiyya Movement – quit the NNPP and the movement. His departure is a big blow to Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiyya Movement. The seismic shift perhaps presents the biggest challenge to the godfather's hegemony.

For Kwankwaso, former Minister of Defence in the President Obasanjo’s administration, the disappointment is difficult to mask. He has described Monday, January 26, 2026, the day Abba Gida-Gida formally enlisted in the governing All Progressives Congress, as one that should be marked in the world as a day of 'betrayal'.

Cloak-and-dagger politics has never been the exception in Kano’s political culture. Over the years and across several republics, Kano has witnessed bitter disagreements among its political leaders that engendered acrimonious parting of ways. In the Second Republic, the late Abubakar Rimi’s disagreement with his mentor, Malam Aminu Kano, led to a rift that split down the line Aminu Kano’s People’s Redemption Party that brought him to power as governor in 1979. Rimi eventually pitched his tent with the defunct Nigeria Peoples Party, founded by Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, to seek re-election in 1983. Sabo BakinZuwo, propped by PRP to contest the Kano governorship election in 1983, would later defeat his opponent, Alhaji Aminu Wali of the National Party of Nigeria, in a closely contested election. However, his tenure was short-lived. The military coup of December 31, 1983, removed him from office.

It has been no different in the Fourth Republic. Dr Umar Ganduje had a bittersweet relationship with his political friend and principal, Rabiu Kwankwaso, leading to the two parting ways. Such was their initial bond that, even after Ganduje served as Kwankwaso’s deputy during his first governorship term from 1999 to 2003, he tapped him again as deputy when he returned as governor for a second term in 2011, after the eight years of Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau.

Defection is normal and part of Nigeria’s politics. The question arising from today's wave of defections is whether the motive is ideological or for political survival and whether defection is motivated by conflicting political ideas, as was the case in the earlier period referenced, particularly in the case of Rimi and Aminu Kano.

Abba Gida-Gida says his decision to defect to the APC was not self-serving, but was made in the interest of the people of the state to align with the party at the centre and drive more development to Kano. “Our return to APC is anchored on the need to work closely with President Bola Tinubu to advance social welfare, infrastructure and inclusive economic development in Kano. This decision was not driven by personal ambition, but by stability, progress and well-being of Kano people,” he had said during his declaration.

Governor Yusuf seemed at pains to leave the NNPP and part ways with his political leader. It’s instructive that, despite the widespread talk of his defection, it took him quite a while and a few postponements before he eventually joined the APC and pitched his tent with the Ganduje political camp he defeated in the 2023 Kano governorship election.

On January 20, 2026, when Governor Yusuf came to the Presidential Villa for a strategic meeting with President Tinubu, apart from addressing his defection concerns, one other issue that dominated discussions was his plea to the President to renew discussions and negotiations with Kwankwaso, persuade him to re-join APC and consider the possibility of working with him.

However, as correctly reported by a national newspaper over the weekend, Kwankwaso appears inflexible and unrealistic in his demands and conditions for enlisting in the governing party, allegedly seeking commitments for the 2031 presidential position – five years away!

Kwankwaso was thrown into shock and disbelief by Abba Gida-Gida’s defection. Still reeling from shock days after, he swore that Yusuf would regret his decision. His tough stance should be understandable. Governor Yusuf is his son-in-law, former Commissioner for Transport and one of his closest associates.

The battle line now seems clearly drawn between the godfather and the godson. Can Kwankwaso recover from the shock of what he called treachery by a man he helped into office as governor? Can the former minister regain his stranglehold on Kano politics and his awesome control of the levers of power in the state? What does Governor Yusuf's defection portend for his re-election? I will attempt to answer these critical questions shortly.

One crucial point is the fact that Abba Gida-Gida defected from a position of strength. He crossed over to APC with a formidable arsenal: eight National Assembly members, 22 state assembly members and 44 local council chairmen. The APC has also given him an automatic ticket to contest for re-election in 2027. Leading APC gubernatorial aspirants in the state, notably Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau, have already dropped their ambitions, opting to support the governor in 2027. This is a significant decision, particularly by Barau, who had been quite resolute in his preparation for the governorship race, and a demonstration of his humility and loyalty to party leadership.

Will Abba Gida-Gida suffer the same fate in next year’s election as late Abubakar Rimi in 1983? It is yet uncertain.

As indicated earlier, Governor Yusuf has strong supporters in his corner, and his administration is said to be truly pro-people in its governance programmes and infrastructure projects. In his home-base of Gwale Local Government and Kano Central Senatorial District, Abba Gida-Gida, a member of a royal family, is well-liked and has a strong following, even though Senator Rufai Hanga of NNPP, who represents the senatorial zone in the National Assembly, had refused to defect with him.

Senator Barau undoubtedly has a formidable presence in his Kano North, along with Hon. Abubakar Kabir Abubakar Bichi, Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations, who is from Hagagawa Village. Also for APC in this zone are former deputy governor in the state and former Minister of State for Housing, Abdullahi Gwarzo, and APC deputy govenorship candidate in the last election, Murtala Sule Garo. APC is strong enough there to secure Kano North for Abba Gida-Gida, while Senator Kawu Sumaila, who had earlier in April 2025 defected from NNPP to APC, may do a similar thing for the governor in Kano South, among other things.

A lot, however, will depend on how Governor Yusuf carries on from now till the election, in terms of his relationship with the Kano people and the seriousness of the leaders both in Kano and Abuja, who are with him, to deliver him. There is also the issue of who Kwankwaso's NNPP will present to slug it out with Abba Gida-Gida, who is yet unknown. That choice too will be a key factor in the election.

Meanwhile, Kwankwaso has begun a recalibration of his fractured NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya Movement.

Fortunately for him, Yusuf’s deputy, Samaila Gwarzo, has refused to join the governor in the defection to the APC. However, his fate hangs in the balance as the governor and his associates mull his impeachment. The governor has an overwhelming majority in the House to carry this through.

Also, some commissioners and a few top functionaries have resigned from Abba Gida-Gida’s government to demonstrate their loyalty to Kwankwaso. This will give initial comfort and strength in his efforts to rebuild his broken political group.

In summary, though seemingly down now, Kwankwaso cannot be ruled out in Kano’s political equation. It will amount to political naivety to contemplate otherwise.

•Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Special Duties.

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