Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, has warned that recent changes in the methodology for computing Consumer Price Index (CPI) are raising serious concerns about the credibility of the inflation data.

In a policy brief, he said adjustments to CPI computation parameters had created credibility gaps, undermining the confidence of investors, analysts, businesses, and policymakers.

Noting that while the situation had not materially affected the disinflation trend over the past 12 months, he said the moderation in question had been driven largely by falling food prices.

According to recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s inflation declined to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, extending the disinflation trend recorded over the last 12 months.

He said while inflation might be easing, the structural drivers of high costs, especially energy, transportation, logistics, and insecurity, remain firmly in place. Food and beverages, housing, restaurants, transportation, and fuel account for 72 per cent of inflation pressure. Core inflation stood at 18.63 per cent, higher than 18.04 per cent in November 2025.

At the same time, he noted that the sharp decline in food prices had raised serious concerns about the sustainability of farmers’ investments, as their returns are being eroded, and added that addressing both consumer affordability and producer investment viability had become an urgent policy priority.

He revealed that inflation’s decline suggested that macroeconomic stabilisation efforts were taking effect and urged strengthening technical capacity and analytical rigour to rebuild trust in statistical outcomes.

Stressing that food inflation is the primary driver of relief, he noted that it fell to 10.84 per cent and month-on-month food prices contracted. This, he said, had been the single biggest contributor to easing cost-of-living pressures on Nigerian households, and he urged the government to sustain agricultural supply and reduce logistics costs to maintain this momentum.

“Despite exchange-rate stability, core inflation increased to 18.63 per cent. This is inconsistent with macroeconomic fundamentals and suggests deeper structural pressures or possible statistical inconsistencies. Government must review and improve CPI methodology to ensure alignment with economic realities.”

“Food, housing, utilities, fuel and transport remain the dominant contributors to inflation, reflecting the sectors where Nigerians spend the bulk of their income. Government should target cost reductions in these sectors to accelerate disinflation and improve affordability,” he said. (Guardian)

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