The Federal Government yesterday defended Nigeria’s rising public debt stock of about N152 trillion, insisting that the increase largely reflects improved transparency and exchange rate adjustments rather than reckless new borrowing.

Speaking at the presentation of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, NESG, 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook in Lagos, the Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance, Mr. Wale Edun, said the Tinubu administration had chosen openness and discipline over opaque accounting practices.

“Nigeria’s total public debt stands at N152 trillion, just over $100 billion,” Edun said, adding, “Importantly, N30 trillion previously recorded as Ways and Means has now been transparently recognised, while exchange rate adjustments account for much of the remaining increase, not new borrowing.”

He stressed that although debt service remains a challenge, “transparency has improved significantly,” adding that government has continued to meet all its statutory obligations.

“Despite fiscal pressures, salaries, pensions and debt service have been paid. That underscores our commitment to discipline and transparency,” he said.

On the performance of the 2025 Budget, Edun noted that Nigeria’s fiscal position showed resilience despite global headwinds and domestic constraints. “The fiscal deficit stood at 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, slightly above the Fiscal Responsibility Act threshold, reflecting ongoing adjustment efforts,” he said.

According to him, revenue performance remained constrained largely by shortfalls in oil and gas receipts, but non-oil revenue recorded improvements.

“Fiscal federalism reforms have strengthened the financial position of states, many of which are now running budget surpluses exceeding three per cent, enabling greater spending on health, education and public services,” he added.

Edun said the administration’s economic reforms, though difficult, had delivered macro-economic stabilisation and positioned the country for consolidation.

“After more than two years of implementing transformative and politically difficult reforms, Nigeria is now at the threshold of consolidation,” he said.

“But consolidation demands resolve, discipline and policy consistency. Nigeria cannot afford to retreat or pause.”

He explained that distortions that once defined the economy had been dismantled. “Preferential access to foreign exchange, fuel subsidies and rent-seeking opportunities have been removed. This has created a more level playing field where success is driven by productivity, innovation and value creation, not arbitrage,” he said.

On investor confidence, Edun said Nigeria’s reforms are yielding positive signals globally. “We were well received at the World Bank Annual Meetings. Nigeria has exited the FATF grey list and has just been removed from the European Union’s list of high-risk third countries. Credit rating agencies have also responded positively,” he said.

Commenting on growth and inflation, the minister said economic activity was broadening, with “27 sectors growing above three per cent,” even though manufacturing and agriculture are “not yet where we want them to be.”

He added: “Inflation remains a challenge, but the trajectory reflects the commitment of monetary authorities. The fight against inflation is everyone’s fight because inflation hurts the most vulnerable the hardest.”

Edun also highlighted the improving performance of Nigeria’s capital market, describing it as a critical pillar for growth financing.

“We have seen improvements in trade balance, foreign exchange reserves and stock market capitalisation, now approaching $500 billion, an important threshold for global market credibility,” he said.

“Capital markets will increasingly play a central role in mobilising domestic savings and financing growth, enabling Nigerians at all levels to invest productively,” he added.

Looking ahead, Edun said government projects economic growth of about 4.68 per cent in 2026, with inflation averaging 16.5 per cent and the exchange rate benchmarked at N1,400 to the dollar.

He said the 2026 Budget, titled ‘Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,’ reflects President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to translating macroeconomic gains into “food availability, electricity, housing and employment.”

“The task ahead is immense, but so is our resolve,” Edun said. “We will not retreat from economic transformation. Our responsibility is to translate stability into inclusive, job-rich growth that delivers for every Nigerian.”

Govt operations would have been difficult to sustain without fresh domestic borrowing — Dada

Reacting to the comment by the Minister of Finance, Oluropo Dada, the 13th President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, CIS, said: “Based on available issuance of data, the Federal Government has raised over N7 trillion from the FGN bond market alone in the last two years, excluding Treasury bills.

“At the same time, budget documents show a persistently widening fiscal deficit, which by definition must be financed through a combination of borrowing, asset drawdowns, or exceptional revenues. In practice, the scale of the deficit suggests that new borrowing has played a material role, even if part of the increase in headline debt reflects exchange-rate revaluation and the formal recognition of previously unrecorded obligations.

“While it is valid to acknowledge the impact of naira devaluation on foreign currency debt and improvements in classification and transparency, the data indicates that government operations over the last two years would have been difficult to sustain without fresh domestic borrowing.

“The key issue, therefore, is not whether transparency reforms occurred, they are welcome but whether fiscal sustainability risks are increasing as borrowing continues amid weak revenue growth. Clear reconciliation between deficits, borrowing sources, and debt outcomes remains essential to maintain market confidence.”

I don’t think legacy debt is sole reason for current colossal figure — Adonri

Reacting as well, David Adonri, Analyst & Vice Executive Chairman at High Cap Securities Limited, said: “The unmasking of shadow debt and subsequent incorporation into FGN’s total debt profile is commendable.

“However, I don’t think that the legacy debt is the sole reason for the current colossal figure that deepens FGN’s misery in its debt trap. Further reckless borrowing by this administration continues to worsen the situation.”

There is need for caution given ratio of Debt to GDP — Amolegbe

Reacting on the rising debt profile, former President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, CIS, Olatunde Amolegbe, said: “ Well, the minister is correct in stating clearly the constitution of the current sovereign debt and it’s a measure of the transparency he has brought to the job.

“For me, what is germaine is debt sustainability rather than the quantum of debt itself. “

Looking at debt-to gdp ratio of about 36 per cent, one can argue that sustainability is not in any peril at the moment.

“However, if you look at other measures such as debt-to-revenue, then caution will be appropriate.

“I have no doubt that our policy makers are well aware of this.”

Sustainability will depend on how fiscal authority manages servicing costs, revenue — Egbomeade

In his reaction, Clifford Egbomeade, Analyst and Communications expert, said: “Wale Edun’s explanation is internally consistent with the figures provided and aligns with standard public finance accounting logic.

“Of the N152 trillion debt stock, roughly N30 trillion reflects previously unrecognised Ways and Means advances now formally captured, while about N49 trillion comes from foreign debt revaluation following exchange rate adjustments. Those components describe recognition and valuation effects rather than new cash inflows, supporting Wale Edun’s claim that the headline increase does not equate to a borrowing spree.

“From a fiscal transparency standpoint, recognising off-balance-sheet obligations strengthens credibility. Bringing legacy Ways and Means advances onto the books corrects reporting gaps that had understated public liabilities for years. Similarly, revaluing dollar-denominated debt after exchange rate reforms provides a more realistic naira picture of obligations. Such steps improve planning quality and investor confidence because markets price risk based on full and accurate disclosure.

“However, improved transparency does not neutralise the underlying fiscal pressure implied by the numbers. The Debt Management Office data still show a rise from N149.39 trillion to N152.40 trillion within one quarter, alongside growth in both domestic debt, up to N80.55 trillion, and external debt, valued at N71.85 trillion in naira terms.

“Even when driven by revaluation, higher naira debt magnifies debt service requirements relative to government revenue, which remains structurally weak.

“The position, therefore, holds on accounting grounds but demands complementary policy action. Clear disclosure must be paired with sustained revenue mobilisation, tighter limits on central bank financing, and disciplined capital spending to prevent recognised liabilities from translating into future stress. “Transparency explains the numbers; sustainability will depend on how fiscal authorities manage servicing costs and revenue growth within that clarified framework.” (Vanguard)

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