The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that the naira will trade at N1,480 to the dollar in 2026, alongside a steady rise in the country’s external reserves to $52 billion, as Nigeria consolidates recent macroeconomic reforms and stabilisation efforts.

The private sector-led, non-profit and non-partisan think tank also forecast 16 percent inflation this year and single-digit inflation of between 8 and 10 percent in 2027 and economic growth of about 5.5 percent in 2026, driven largely by improved macroeconomic coordination and stronger output from key productive sectors.

The projections were unveiled on Thursday in Lagos during the launch of the NESG’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook titled ‘Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria’.

Speaking at the event, Olaniyi Yusuf, chairman of the NESG, said Nigeria has entered a critical transition phase that requires moving beyond short-term crisis management to building systems capable of delivering sustainable productivity gains.

According to him, consolidation represents the medium-term stage where economic stability must be strengthened and translated into real economic outputs. He described it as the structural bridge between reform and results, noting that the gains from reduced macroeconomic disruption must now be deliberately leveraged to remove long-standing bottlenecks constraining output, investment and competitiveness.

“For Nigeria, consolidation requires a shift in emphasis,” Yusuf said. “Policy must move from inconsistency across sectors to coherence, from firefighting to system-building, and from short-term fixes to institutional strengthening.”

He noted that the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook identifies several pillars critical to successful consolidation, placing strong emphasis on proper sequencing, fiscal and policy discipline, as well as realism in implementation. Yusuf warned that while reform fatigue remains a real risk, reversing reforms would be far more costly for the economy.

“The challenge before us is to stay the course while refining and strengthening the quality of implementation,” he said, adding that the NESG remains committed to supporting the reform process through evidence-based analysis, sustained public–private dialogue and continuous tracking of reform outcomes with intellectual honesty.

Yusuf further explained that Nigeria’s economic performance in 2024 and 2025 was largely shaped by significant policy adjustments and corrections aimed at addressing deep-rooted distortions in the foreign exchange regime, energy pricing framework and monetary conditions.

“These reforms were not painless, but they were unavoidable,” he said. “They defined the stabilisation phase of our reform journey.”

He stressed that stabilisation, as defined by the NESG, is not a temporary intervention but a foundational process focused on restoring macroeconomic predictability and reducing systemic volatility. In Nigeria’s context, this involved directly confronting inflationary pressures, exchange rate instability and fiscal imbalances to establish a stable base for sustained economic activity.

Drawing from the economy’s performance in 2025, Yusuf noted that early signals of stabilisation had started to emerge, with Nigeria gradually transitioning from reform-induced dislocation to a more stable macroeconomic environment, although structural weaknesses remain.

Also speaking at the launch, Olusegun Omisakin, chief economist and director of research and development at NESG, said the group’s projections for 2026 are grounded in its medium-term macroeconomic framework extending to 2029.

He explained that the 2026 outlook places strong emphasis on agriculture and manufacturing as key growth drivers, adding that improved productivity in these sectors could support economic expansion of about 5.5 percent.

“Our projections align with what we have in our framework from 2026 through 2029,” Omisakin said. “For 2026, by emphasising the role of agriculture and manufacturing, we believe the economy can achieve growth of 5.5 percent, building on last year’s estimated 5 percent under an optimistic scenario.”

He added that sustaining growth would depend largely on policy consistency, disciplined implementation of reforms and continued efforts to strengthen productive capacity across the economy.

(BusinessDay)

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