Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to revise its inflation reporting methodology.

This followed concerns that December’s year-on-year figure may be artificially inflated due to the impact of last year’s rebasing exercise.

The agency said the expected spike in December inflation did not reflect actual price movements in the economy, but was largely a statistical distortion caused by the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index.

According to Reuters, the rebasing, the first in 15 years, adopted December 2024 as the index reference point.

Officials explained that the change is likely to exaggerate the year-on-year inflation figure for December without accurately capturing prevailing market trends.

December inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, with analysts projecting a sharp rise in the headline rate to about 30 percent from 14.45 percent recorded in November.

However, the NBS cautioned against interpreting the projected figure as a true reflection of inflationary pressures.

“The widely reported 30 percent figure for December is only a projection and not from the bureau,” said Ayo Anthony, Head of Prices at the NBS.

Anthony noted that Nigeria’s consumer inflation had peaked at nearly 35 percent in December 2024 before easing significantly following the rebasing exercise and a moderation in food prices.

“This spike is not the real inflation rate. It is an artificial spike caused by the base effect from rebasing,” he said.

To address the distortion, the statistics agency said it would replace the single-month index reference period with a 12-month reference period for 2024 in order to provide a more accurate representation of inflation.

“We are removing the single-month index reference period and replacing it with a 12-month reference period for 2024 to report actual inflation,” Anthony explained.

He added that while countries such as South Africa and Kenya operate a one-month base, Nigeria’s sharp price movements make that model unsuitable for its economic realities.

Before the latest exercise, Nigeria last rebased its inflation data in 2009.

Bonaventure Nwosu, Head of Communications at the NBS, told Reuters that the long gap between rebasing cycles had amplified the base effect now being observed.

“We haven’t rebased in 15 years, so some of the base effect playing out is due to that lag. Whatever spike you see for December is a one-off and should not be interpreted as real inflation. From January 2026, figures will normalise and reflect actual market conditions”, he said.

The bureau said the revised methodology would provide a clearer and more credible picture of inflationary pressures in Africa’s most populous nation. (Daily Trust)

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