BARELY 13 months to the 2027 general elections, a wave of high-profile defections into the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, has dramatically altered the political landscape across several states.

While the movement of sitting Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, governors into the party has strengthened APC’s numerical advantage, it has also exposed deep fault lines, setting the stage for fierce internal battles over leadership, structure and, ultimately, party tickets.

From Akwa Ibom to Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Plateau and Enugu, the central question confronting the APC is whether it can convert elite consensus into grassroots cohesion or whether unresolved rivalries will implode at the primaries.

Sharing of APC tickets to test Akpabio-Eno alliance in A/Ibom

Ahead of the polls, the APC in Akwa Ibom State faces the real prospect of internal crisis following the June 2025 defection of Governor Umo Eno from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

At the heart of the looming tension is how the party’s two dominant power centres -Governor Eno, who controls state resources, and Senate President Godswill Akpabio, who commands federal influence -will share party tickets for state and National Assembly offices without triggering implosion.

In his defection speech, Governor Eno spoke glowingly of mutual trust between himself, Akpabio and President Bola Tinubu, stressing that the understanding guaranteed automatic tickets for his second-term bid and Akpabio’s political future, while committing all three to deliver Akwa Ibom to the APC.

Conspicuously absent, however, was any assurance for the 26 PDP lawmakers and political appointees who defected alongside him. Apart from Akpabio, even serving APC lawmakers at the National Assembly are uncertain about their chances of securing return tickets.

One lawmaker confided to Sunday Vanguard: “This crisis is inevitable. The smiles between Akpabio and Governor Eno will fade once INEC blows the whistle. Sharing tickets will displace many of us who followed Eno into APC. Some colleagues are already shopping for alternative platforms.”

Fearing backlash from displaced incumbents with strong voter bases, Governor Eno has unveiled the slogan “Akwa Ibom United,” a political doctrine first popularised by the recently displaced PDP chairman, Aniekan Akpan.

Critics describe it as a euphemism for total political control across party lines, blending inducement with coercion. In the weeks before his defection, Eno reportedly gifted SUVs to PDP chairmen and the Inter-Party Advisory Council, IPA, ostensibly to promote harmony.

Yet, that posture contrasts sharply with his hardline warning: “We will not leave PDP for thieves to hijack and use against us.”

A party chieftain alleged that dissenters were declared “sacked,” noting that two aides were dismissed for attending the PDP convention in Ibadan.

The strategy, insiders say, is to keep a firm grip on the opposition and deny displaced aspirants viable platforms. But analysts warn that an unresolved Akpabio–Eno ticket-sharing battle could weaken APC’s chances or, if managed ruthlessly, hand it total victory.

Delta: Old warhorses, new alliances

Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s April 28, 2025 defection to the APC, alongside his predecessor, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, has reshaped Delta State politics. Since then, Oborevwori has consolidated control of the party, enjoying the backing of the Omeni-Sobotie-led State Working Committee and key stakeholders, including Chief Festus Keyamo, O’tega Emerhor, Senators Ned Nwoko and Ede Dafinone.

The governor has been widely endorsed as APC’s sole governorship candidate for 2027. The governor is also getting support and series of endorsement from APC faithful and stakeholders across the three senatorial districts, federal constituencies and local government areas in the state as consensus governorship candidate of the party in the 2027 general elections.

However, uncertainty lingers over the ambition of former Deputy Senate President, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege, the party’s 2023 governorship candidate, who has remained silent.

Omo-Agege, who is the immediate past Deputy President of the Senate, has been a longstanding governorship aspirant in the state and had vied for the position severally under the platforms of various political parties.

Though he welcomed the governor into the APC and attended the defection ceremony, Omo-Agege has since then been silent, giving nothing away as to whether he is ready to give up his ambition or not.

With former PDP and old APC members now cohabiting, analysts foresee friction, particularly where incumbents and aspirants collide.

“Some persons were in PDP and they were warming up to contest various positions whether at the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives and Senate and now they are in the same party where the sitting Senator or House of Representatives member is thinking of going for a second term. So, people with their interests, if they don’t have it may want to cause rancour and chaos” a political analyst told Sunday Vanguard.

Ethiope Federal Constituency, home of former governor James Ibori, is one flashpoint, with tensions between supporters of his daughter, the incumbent lawmaker, and a rival camp led by Chief Ighoyota Amori.

In fact, an Ibori and Amori feud, if not resolved, could cause big issues.

Delta North Senatorial district is susceptible to rancour in the build up to 2027 as relations between former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa and incumbent Senator Ned Nwoko remain strained. Whether Okowa backs a rival aspirant or Nwoko resists pressure to step aside could determine APC’s internal stability.

Before the defection, there were rumours that Okowa was touting someone that will run under the PDP, though it was misrepresented that he was the ’ne that wanted to go back to the Senate.

Ned Nwoko defected from the PDP to the APC and now both of them are back in the same party.

Will Okowa bring someone to run against Nwoko in the APC? Will Nwoko give up and allow someone else to take the ticket from him? This is an issue that could cause chaos in the party, if not properly managed.

Will Diri’s inclusive style count in Bayelsa APC?

Bayelsa State is experiencing a major shift in its political landscape following Governor Douye Diri’s defection from the PDP to the APC. This move is seen as a key boost to the APC, strengthening its hold on the state and paving the way for increased federal support and investment.

With the defection, the APC now controls the state executive and legislative arms of government, giving it an advantage in the upcoming general elections. This shift in power dynamics will no doubt affect opposition parties’ chances in subsequent polls in the state.

However, this has sparked mixed reactions, with some welcoming the decision and others predicting potential instability. Analysts warn that defections don’t guarantee automatic success, emphasizing the importance of internal party structures and agreements, a pointer that the governor’s new role will require navigating the party’s internal factions and managing tensions with his former PDP colleagues.

Interestingly, the party’s internal dynamics are complex, with factions loyal to the Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri and former Governor Timipre Sylva.

Recall that the then ruling party, the PDP exploited the wrangling within the APC in the last governorship polls to cement its place as the dominant party in Bayelsa until the surprised November 2025 switch by Governor Diri to the APC alongside the Speaker, Abraham Ingobere and members of the state House of Assembly. His commissioners and local government council chairmen under the banner of the PDP also joined the defection train.

One major obstacle is the internal party dynamics, as some APC members have expressed concerns about the governor’s defection from PDP, questioning his loyalty and electoral value as he’s already serving his second term.

Though the Lokpobiri faction has since accepted Diri as the leader of the party in the state by virtue of his position as a governor, he still faces the challenge of winning the trust of some old party members, especially those in the Sylva camp who have been loyal to the party since it berthed in the state and see their principal as its leader.

However, Diri’s leadership style, known for its inclusiveness irrespective of party affiliations and peaceful disposition, will be put to test in his new role as the leader of the party as both old and new members slug it out for positions in the days ahead in the predominantly civil service state where politics has turned out to be a lucrative business for many.

The governor is also expected to bring to bear his wealth of experience and leadership acumen to reconcile the factions within the APC and avoid past mistakes that cost the party dearly at the polls as witnessed in the last governorship election in the state when the party went into battle with the PDP as a divided house.

The outcome of these political maneuvers will no doubt have significant implications for 2027 which focus is to return the President at the centre and help secure Bayelsa State for the APC, reminiscence of the PDP era of dominance in the South South geopolitical zone.

How Fubara’s defection sparked fresh political crisis In Rivers

Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s December 9, 2025 defection to the APC reignited political tensions in Rivers State, especially within the camp of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike.

Wike’s anger reportedly stems from Fubara’s failure to consult him before meeting President Tinubu and defecting, a move allegedly facilitated by APC Governors’ Forum chairman, Hope Uzodimma.

Wike has openly declared that Fubara cannot be the political leader of Rivers, even as governor, a stance echoed by APC National Vice Chairman Victor Giadom.

However, Senator John Azuta-Mbata countered that Fubara remains the recognised governor, underscoring the fragile and unresolved nature of the crisis as 2027 approaches.

Fubara’s decision to join the APC came barely a few days after about 16 lawmakers loyal to Wike defected to the APC citing “irreconcilable” differences in the PDP.

The governor who had a closed-door meeting with President Tinubu in the Villa on Monday night before his defection, boasted that his joining the APC was a mark of respect and, perhaps, the best way of saying “thank you Mr. President” for standing with Rivers State.

Since a few months into his government after swearing in on May 29, 2023, Fubara has never known peace. Political crisis that erupted between him and Wike, his godfather that almost consumed the state lasted for close to two years until President Tinubu wielded the big stick on March 18, 2025 by declaring a state of emergency in Rivers followed by the suspension of Fubara, his deputy and the House of Assembly for six months.

Vice Admiral Ibok Etteh Ibas, retd, was appointed to administer the state for six months when the suspension lasted. He handed over reins of power to Fubara on September 18, 2025.

However, the latest political development did not go down well with the camp of the FCT Minister, Wike who angrily reacted that singing Tinubu’s political slogan “on your mandate we shall stand” would not guarantee an automatic ticket for Fubara’s second term in 2027.

Investigation showed that Wike’s anger stemmed from the fact that Fubara never sought his consent before meeting President Tinubu on December 8 to finalize plans to defect to the APC. The tactical plan was said to have been mooted by the Imo State Governor and chairman of APC Governors’ Forum, Senator Uzodimma, to spite Wike.

Wike believes that Fubara has blatantly failed to implement some of the agreements made by President Tinubu to resolve the lingering political crisis in the state. According to Wike, Fubara had not been working with the state House of Assembly as it ought to be. But the governor insisted that it is the Minister that ought to arrange for such a meeting where all of them including the elders would sit and settle scores.

Wike has also insisted that despite being in a different party, Fubara can never be the political leader of Rivers State despite being a governor. This position has further sparked wide division among political elites in the state with the National Vice Chairman of the APC, Victor Giadom, saying that Fubara can never get anything without passing through Wike.

Giadom, who described Wike as a “dependable leader” in Rivers State politics, assured the minister that there would be no political force in Gokana (his local government area) other than him (Wike).

“I guarantee, on behalf of my brothers, that the Gokana people are for Wike and Tinubu and nobody will challenge Wike’s influence in Gokana.

“Gokana is a ‘no-go area’ for anybody, even Governor Fubara. For him to win anything in Gokana, he must pass through Wike,” he said.

Nevertheless, the political leader of Eneka Clan in Obio/Akpor local government area of the state and President General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide, Senator John Azuta-Mbata, declared that the people of Eneka recognized Siminalayi Fubara as the only Governor of Rivers State.

He assured the Governor of the clan’s “continued friendship and support”, describing the relationship as “firm and unbroken”.

The latest political development, however, is an indication that the peace accord brokered by President Tinubu between Governor Fubara and Wike, was just a fluke.

Plateau: Mutfwang’s defection shakes PDP stronghold

Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s defection has rattled Plateau State, long regarded as a PDP bastion. While APC leaders welcomed the move cautiously, PDP loyalists see it as a betrayal.

Analysts warn that without reconciliation and transparent leadership, APC risks factionalisation that could blunt its electoral edge and reopen space for opposition resurgence.

Plateau State has long prided itself as the traditional stronghold of the PDP, a reputation built on the state’s pivotal role in the formation, growth and sustenance of the Party over the years.

From the advent of the Fourth Republic, the PDP enjoyed overwhelming acceptance across the state, embedding itself deeply in the political consciousness of the people.

For many politically aware citizens, loyalty to the PDP went beyond mere party affiliation and was often likened to a belief system. Adherence to the party line was regarded as a civic duty, while any form of deviation in the recent past was viewed by supporters as political apostasy.

This entrenched loyalty largely explains why opposition parties struggled for relevance and electoral success in Plateau State for many years.

This political pattern, however, witnessed a significant shift with the emergence of the All Progressives Congress, APC, which broke the PDP’s dominance and governed the state between 2015 and 2023.

The period marked a notable departure from Plateau’s long-standing political tradition and demonstrated that voter loyalty, though deeply rooted, was not immutable.

Following the 2023 general elections, the PDP returned to power in Plateau State, rekindling hopes among its supporters that the Party’s supremacy had been restored.

However, internal crises and protracted leadership disputes at the national level of the PDP soon cast a shadow over this resurgence. These unresolved tensions reportedly culminated in the defection of Governor Mutfwang to the APC, a move that sent shockwaves through the state’s political landscape.

The defection was met with mixed reactions. While some leaders within the APC initially expressed reservations, questioning the political implications of the move, grassroots supporters of the PDP were equally unsettled, perceiving it as a profound betrayal of the Party’s long-standing ideals and support base.

As events unfold, the Plateau State chapter of the APC appears poised to grapple with significant internal challenges.

Analysts foresee the emergence of factional alignments and leadership disputes driven by competing loyalties to existing party structures and newly formed power blocs. Such divisions, if not carefully managed, could weaken internal cohesion and disrupt the Party’s organisational effectiveness.

These tensions may also adversely affect grassroots mobilisation, undermine confidence among Party faithful and potentially trigger defections of some members. The risk of deepening discord remains high, particularly if the Party fails to articulate a unified vision or adopt transparent mechanisms for conflict resolution.

Ultimately, without timely reconciliation, inclusive leadership and credible internal democratic processes, the APC risks diminishing its effectiveness and electoral competitiveness in Plateau State.

Such a scenario could create political openings for other contending parties to gain traction and reshape the state’s political dynamics in 2027.

Enugu: Why APC may avoid implosion

Unlike elsewhere, Enugu APC appears poised for relative stability following Governor Peter Mbah’s defection. Strategic realignments, the exit of former power brokers and the emergence of Dr. Ben Nwoye as caretaker chairman have effectively handed party control to the governor’s camp.

With funding, structure and national backing aligned, insiders say harmonisation is inevitable, though zoning adjustments may be required to balance senatorial interests.

When Governor Mbah, in October, defected to the ruling APC he literally collapsed the hitherto entire PDP structure into the APC.’He moved with all PDP structures from ward to state level. Before then, APC structure in the state was under the control of Chief Uche Nnaji, then the minister of Science and Innovation, with Barr.

Ugochukwu Agballa as the chairman of the party. But the party was not very peaceful. There were incessant disagreements between the former minister and the leadership of the party on one side and other senior party members and stakeholders on the other side. Major stakeholders of the party, including former Senate President, Chief Ken Nnamani, former Governor Sullivan Chime, former DG of Voice of Nigeria, Osita Okechukwu, among others, were suspended and alienated from the party by the then party leadership of Agballa.

Meanwhile, the relationship between the former minister and the governor was not cordial, they were not working together as minister and governor aimed at one good purpose- development of the state; even when both of them are of Nkanu clan.

With the leadership crisis in PDP, Mbah’s former party not abating, the former APC chairman, Dr. Ben Nwoye, also an Nkanu man, and who was not happy with the Agballa leadership of the party, worked behind the scenes with estranged stakeholders and tactic support of the governor, and schemed back his way as the chairman of the party, further dividing the party, and contesting the leadership of the party with Ugochukwu Agballa.

With support from Abuja and stakeholders, he openly started wooing Gov. Mbah to join APC.

As this was going. On, the NYSC forgery allegation against the former minister cropped up, leading to his resignation.

The minister’s resignation automatically changed a lot in the party. It cleared the way for Nwoye with the backing of the governor and hitherto estranged stakeholders of the party, to take complete control of the party in the state. And he got the nod of the party at the national level to take over as caretaker chairman.

With the party under the control of the governor’s man, the way became express for him to join which he did.

With the circumstances surrounding his movement into the party and the intrigues that removed those that could have constituted a stumbling block for him, it is unlikely that there may be leadership crisis in the party under him, more so in Nigeria political clime, the governor provides the funds and therefore he dictates the tune too.

So it is expected that before long there will be a seamless harmonization and selection of new leaders of the party in the state to reflect the required political balance. This is necessary because the governor and the party chairman should not come from the same senatorial district as presently constituted. Both of them are from Enugu East districts. (Sunday Vanguard)

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