Dangote Refinery, the world’s largest single-train refinery, has warned that gasoline prices could jump to as high as N1,400 if the energy sector remains unwilling to fully embrace local fuel production.

The refinery disclosed its capacity to serve the Nigerian economy, notwithstanding the country's continued heavy reliance on imported fuel.

The warning was issued on Monday when officials at the refinery were disputing allegations that it was shutting down for maintenance, calling the accusations inaccurate, deceptive, and intended to justify another hike in pump prices.

“Recent price movements further highlight an uncomfortable reality. In the absence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, fuel importers would continue to operate without restraint, with petrol prices potentially escalating to levels estimated at up to N1,400 per litre in a post-subsidy environment,” the Dangote Refinery revealed.

“The refinery’s operations have therefore served as a critical stabilising force in the downstream petroleum market,” it added.

The Dangote refinery maintained that production was continuous, steady, and uninterrupted, pointing out that, depending on market demand, it can now produce between 40 million and 50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit per day, as seen in the Punch.

“On January 4, the refinery produced 50 million litres of PMS and evacuated 48 million litres via its gantry.

Current stock levels cover over 20 days of national consumption, effectively dispelling any concerns about supply,” it stated.

“From December 16, 2025, to date, the refinery has loaded between 31 million and 48 million litres of PMS daily from its gantry, in line with prevailing market demand.

These volumes are fully verifiable against depot loading records maintained by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority in the normal course of its regulatory responsibilities,” it added.

Role of the Dangote Refinery in stabilizing Nigeria’s fuel prices

In May 2023, Nigeria’s government ended its fuel subsidy regime, removing long-standing price support that had made petrol artificially cheap.

The subsidy removal caused fuel prices to surge as domestic pump prices adjusted to full market rates in the absence of government support, a shift fuelled by global costs and the burden of imports.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest, has since played a stabilising role in the downstream market by locking in large monthly petrol supplies and targeting an end to fuel imports, strengthening availability and mitigating price volatility.

Fuel prices in Nigeria have gone from as high as N1,200 to as low as N699 since 2023, thanks to the Dangote Refinery.

Despite progress, the refinery still contends with imports e and crude supply bottlenecks that complicate full price relief, and debates continue over market regulation and competition. (Business Insider Africa, but headline rejigged)

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