The global oil market has responded to instability in Venezuela, with crude oil prices dropping to $61 per barrel from over $62 per barrel.

Venezuela’s 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (17% of global total) are a factor in market concerns.

Checks by Vanguard indicated that oil prices could fall further to below $60 per barrel should the United States – Venezuela’s conflict persists.

Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to pause production increments hasn’t yet impacted the market.

The eight OPEC+ countries met on January 4, 2026, reaffirming their decision to pause production increases in Feb-Mar 2026 due to seasonality.

Petroleum Economist Prof. Wumi Iledare said OPEC+’s decision signals caution, not crisis, and reflects a desire to avoid volatility. OPEC+ is keeping spare capacity as a stabilizing tool. He said:

“The key message is flexibility. The 1.65 mbpd voluntary cuts can be returned gradually, in part or in full, depending on how the market evolves… Market fundamentals remain supportive. Low inventories and a steady global economic outlook suggest a broadly balanced oil market.”

According to OPEC, “The eight participating countries reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner. They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.” (Vanguard)

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