Will Amupitan weather the storm?

The year 2026 will be filled with a beehive of activities in the political space as it precedes the 2027 general elections.

According to the new guidelines released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), all political parties must conduct their primary elections in July 2026, while any individual intending to contest any political position must resign from their government offices by February 2026.

By virtue of the new timelines, candidates must have emerged seven months before the general elections to be held in February 2027.

In the Nigerian polity, it is taken for granted that governance takes the backstage a year to the general elections.

Nigerian Tribune unveils individuals who will dominate the socio-political space in the new year.

Amupitan: Fidelity to solemn pledge?

Professor Joash Amupitan was sworn in last October as Chairman of the INEC.

The man who succeeded Professor Mahmood Yakubu has pledged to defend the Constitution and uphold the credibility of Nigeria’s electoral system, vowing to deliver free, fair, and transparent elections.

Amupitan has two off-season governorship elections to supervise in the South West, incidentally, the zone of the incumbent president and likely standard bearer of the APC for the 2027 elections, Bola Tinubu.

How the INEC chairman handles the Ekiti and Osun governorship elections will offer Nigerians an illumination of what to expect from him in 2027.

Atiku Abubakar: Dream dies hard

Former Vice President and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2019 and 2023 general elections is an aspirant for the ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Atiku, with his gaze on the most exalted seat, the Presidency, was a former presidential candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2007.

He will be seeking the opposition party ticket with other contenders, the likes of former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, and former presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi.

If Atiku supplants his rivals for the ADC ticket, it would be his fourth time on the ballot as presidential candidate— and the second time he will be facing his estranged friend, Bola Tinubu, in the race to Aso Rock.

Bola Tinubu: A kingmaker’s firm grip on the throne?

The incumbent president was a former kingmaker before he mounted the saddle in 2023 in a keenly contested election.

A resilient politician, Tinubu transformed from being a two-term Lagos State governor on the platform of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) to a kingmaker in the south-west under the Action Congress (AC), the ACN, and the APC– in that order.

A national leader of the APC, he emerged as its Presidential candidate in 2022, against all odds, and won the general elections in 2023, to the consternation of his sword enemies within his party.

The sitting President, who enjoys the right of first refusal to his party ticket, had since been adopted as the sole candidate by the party stakeholders at a summit held last May at the Banquet Hall of the State House, Abuja.

The main opposition party, the PDP, has been pummeled as it suffered a gale of defection by its governors into the ruling party.

Majority of governors in the southern part of the country have since coalesced into the APC, creating a political optics of a southern coalition ahead 2027 elections.

Aggrieved chieftains of the PDP and the APC, who continue to squeal against perceived marginalisation of the North, have moved into the ADC, smarting for a showdown with Tinubu.

Ten years after Dr Goodluck Jonathan, a sitting President on the platform of the PDP from the south lost a presidential election to a Northern candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, fielded by the erstwhile main opposition party, the APC, will the North succeed in dislodging another southerner from Aso Rock?

Nyesom Wike: The beautiful bride

The former Rivers State Governor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, is a strong ally of President Tinubu.

Wike, who lost the 2023 presidential ticket of the PDP to Atiku Abubakar, was the galvanising force behind the G-5 — a forum of PDP Governors that worked for the victory of the candidate of a rival party.

Things have since fallen apart within the group.

Wike is taken as President Tinubu’s Man Friday in the PDP. The former FCT Minister has consistently denied the allegation of working with Tinubu to destroy the APC.

In his latest media chat, Wike maintained his loyalty to the PDP and refuted the claim by his estranged ally, Governor Seyi Makinde, that he promised Tinubu to supplant the PDP.

He said, “That is a blatant lie. There is no such meeting. At no time did I say to Mr President that I would hold PDP for you. It is completely out of place for anybody to say that. Why did he not come out all this while to tell the party, ‘see what Wike is doing’?”

Wike is acknowledged as Tinubu’s poster boy in terms of service delivery in the FCT.

In a congratulatory message during Wike’s 58th birthday, Tinubu described him as an audacious and result-oriented leader, who consistently overcomes challenges to deliver impactful projects. He particularly acknowledged the ongoing transformation of the FCT, citing major infrastructure expansion initiatives under the Minister’s leadership.

He said: “Nyesom Wike has been one of the shining stars in the cabinet, an exceptional performer, developing infrastructure in the Federal Capital as never seen before and proving that his moniker as ‘Mr Project’ is not limited to his home state of Rivers.”

In 2026, Wike will certainly be distracted at the home front as he battles for supremacy with Sim Fubara for control of the APC structures.

Addressing people in the Khana local council in Rivers State on Monday, he made it clear that he won’t support Fubara to seek a fresh mandate.

“We will not make the same mistake again at the state level in 2027, but we will talk about it later when the time comes.

“Just follow your leaders. Anywhere you see them going, that is where we are going,” he said.

Fubara, with an eye on a fresh mandate and goaded by certain governors in the region, now prides himself as the leader of the APC in Rivers State. Will Tinubu abandon Wike for Fubara in the new year?

Netanwe Yilwatda: Sustaining internal democracy

The former Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction emerged as the APC national chairman last July as a replacement for Abdullahi Umar Ganduje.

Party stakeholders saw his emergence as a deft move by President Tinubu to placate the North-Central region, which had raised allegations of marginalisation in power distribution in the ruling party.

Ahead of the forthcoming 2027 elections, sitting governors and lawmakers are pushing for automatic ticket.

Checks revealed that they have succeeded in testing the waters with the adoption of the consensus option in the emergence of Ekiti and Osun State Governorship candidates.

By virtue of the party constitution, its candidates can emerge through three options: consensus, direct, and indirect primary.

Multiple party sources revealed that the APC governors who mobilised for the adoption of Tinubu as the sole presidential candidate are pushing for the consensus option.

Will the centre hold at Buhari House, the APC National Secretariat, after the conduct of its primaries?

Peter Obi: Surrender not an option

Former Anambra State governor and presidential candidate of the Labour Party in 2023 has indicated his intent to throw his hat into the ring in 2027 under the ADC.

Speculation was rife that the rallying force for the Obidient Movement was going to seek a ticket of another party for his aspiration until last week when he dropped the hint to make a former declaration for ADC in Enugu, the former regional capital of the south-east. And on Wednesday, he made good the promise and formally joined the ADC. Will Obi upstage Atiku for the ADC ticket? Will he pull out after the primary or agree again to be running mate to Atiku?

Mallam Nasir El- Rufai: Empty boasts

Former Kaduna State governor and former chieftain of the APC is one of the driving forces in the ADC.

The former FCT Minister, who lost out in the power game within the APC for a ministerial slot, has been acerbic in his criticisms of the Tinubu administration, which he has derided as an aberration.

He declared last August that he would not be seeking any elective office in 2027.

He said: “This government does nothing but lie every day. I am not contesting for anything. I don’t want to go to the Senate. I am not contesting any position. That’s why I am calling on you; let us join hands and ensure we remove the oppressors.”

Early this month, the former FCT Minister denied report attributed to him that the North should not produce a successor to Tinubu.

But what does El- Rufai want? The answer lies in the belly of time.