Political parties and aspirants have kicked off campaigns ahead of 2027 elections without waiting for the release of the timetable by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the implications for the electoral framework and governance.

Billboards, flyers and posters adorn and litter many buildings, roundabouts, fences and any available wall in the cities and remotest, far-flung villages. They call attention to impending political battles among political parties and aspirants on the long queue for power.

Although the timetable for the next general election has not been released by the umpire, the 2027 race had begun almost three years ago.

Certain unregulated activities beyond the poster wars have catapulted the country into the electioneering period without the official approval.

Concern is mounting over premature campaigns across the six geo-political zones, states, senatorial districts, constituencies and local governments because political parties are in a hurry, and aspirants are impatient and unwilling to wait for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s whistle before throwing their hats in the ring.

Due to the hunt for votes by the ruling and opposition parties, there is no demarcation between the period for politicking and the time for governance. For example, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had hardly settled in office after the validation of his victory by the Supreme Court in 2023 when the opposition parties returned to the drawing board.

At the state level, parties outside the government also began mobilization immediately beyond their customary opposition role of constructive criticism of government policies and programmes.

In response, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) instantly beefed up a resistance, with its former chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, declaring that a vacancy does not exist in Aso Villa, Abuja seat of government, in 2027.

Painting a picture of premature campaigns, a political commentator, Ayuba Ahmad, said “the nation’s political space has evolved over time into a permanent season of electioneering activities,” adding that “billboards are conspicuously displayed months or years ahead of polls, just as the mass media platforms are continually flooded with campaign messaging.” He stressed: “No doubt, the steady and deafening drumbeat of political activities, deceptively labelled “party promotion” or “grassroots mobilisation,” has real, multiple and measurable impact on governance, accountability and the public interest.”

Echoing the Kaduna-based critic, Kafilat Taiwo, a researcher whose works focussed on the electoral system, observed that “as Nigeria approaches its upcoming major elections in 2026 and 2027, the political environment is becoming increasingly active due to the avalanche of promotional materials, social media content, rallies, and indirect endorsements before the commencement of official campaign periods as defined by law.”

She added: “Although these activities may seem innocuous. Early campaigning is emerging as a significant challenge to the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral process.”

To observers, politicians are exploiting legal loopholes to heat up the polity, knowing that they can easily evade sanctions by the electoral agency.

In September, the commission was taken aback by the early campaigns under the guise of party meetings, party visits, empowerment programmes, endorsement and other social events, including birthdays and funeral, which they elevated into campaign platforms.

Indeed, many politicians are also clever to hide under township consultative meetings, project commissioning, ceremonial events, and distribution of palliatives to constituents.

The commission expressed frustration at the inability to sanction political parties, candidates for elections and their supporters who organise campaigns before the stipulated time.

Former INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, and the Chairman of the Electoral Institute, Prof Abdullahi Abdu-Zuru, condemned the illegal campaigns at a one day conference with the theme: “Challenges of premature political campaign” in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

At the roundtable, Yakubu’s predecessor, Prof Attahiru Jega, pointed out that the political class was exploring legal loopholes. He explained that the 1999 Constitution and the Electoral Act have failed to stipulate stiff sanction against those behind premature campaigns ahead of polls.

Jega said while the Electoral Act imposes a fine of N500, 000 on those who engaged in campaign less than 24 hours to the main election, there was nothing in the law that serves as sanction for those who engage in campaign less than 150 days to elections as provided for in the Electoral Act, 2022.

The former INEC Chairman also noted that the trend of campaigns ahead of off-cycle governorship elections without authorisation was disturbing, stressing that lawless politicians violate the provisions with impunity and go scot-free.

Section 94(1) of the Electoral Act 2022 prohibits the commencement of campaign earlier than 150 days, which is five months before the polling day and must end 24 hours prior to that day. Yakubu said “the idea is to prioritise governance over electioneering from one electoral cycle to another.”

But he lamented that despite the provisions, political parties, candidates and their supporters seem to be perpetually in election mood ahead of the timeframe provided by law.

“Around the country, we have seen outdoor advertising, media campaigns and even rallies promoting various political parties and candidates. These actions and activities undermine the Commission’s ability to track campaign finance limits as politicians, prospective candidates and third-party agents expend large amount of money that cannot be effectively monitored before the official commencement of campaigns.

“Quite correctly, Nigerians expect INEC, as registrar and regulator of political parties, to act in the face of the brazen breach of the law on early campaign. However, the major challenge for the Commission is the law itself,” he said.

Like Jega, Yakubu, who shed light on the weakness of the law, called for its amendment. “Sections 94(2) of the Electoral Act 2022 imposes sanctions, albeit mild (a maximum amount of N500,000 on conviction), on any political party or a person acting on its behalf who engaged in campaigns 24 hours before polling day.

“However, there is no sanction whatsoever concerning breaches for campaigns earlier than 150 days to an election. Here lies the challenge for the Commission in dealing with early campaign by political parties, prospective candidates and their supporters.

“In a sense, the problem of early campaign in Nigeria is not new. The seeming inability of the Commission and other regulatory agencies to deal with the menace within the ambit of the existing electoral legal framework calls for deep reflection.”

Abdu-Zuru, also an INEC National Commissioner, highlighted the tricks by politicians who indulge in early campaigns. “We have seen aspirants use cultural festivals and religious gatherings to drop hints about their ambitions, often disguised as appreciation or philanthropy. Billboards and branded vehicles sometimes appear with cleverly crafted slogans that stop just short of open solicitation but leave little doubt about the intent.

“More recently, social media influencers and content creators have become key players and fronts, flooding platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Tik-Tok, YouTube, and X with songs, skits, and hashtags that project particular aspirants many months before the permission of the law.”

Abdu-Zuru described Section 94 (1) of the Electoral Act as a safeguard introduced to ensure fairness, reduce political tension, and guarantee a level playing field for aspirants. “Unfortunately, what we see today is an increasing determination to circumvent, stretch, and even undermine this law. Often, actors such as associations, professional groups, religious groups or political support groups are used as convenient fronts for disguised early campaigning,” he said.

Noting that the implications of this trend are far-reaching, he added: “When aspirants or parties compete to dominate visibility long before the official campaign period, it distorts fairness and raises the cost of political competition.

“Moreover, it distracts from governance, as elected officials become more concerned with sustaining political relevance than delivering public service. Over time, it erodes public confidence in our electoral system and fuels cynicism about whether the law can truly be enforced.”

Abdu-Zuru said stakeholders must be frank in acknowledging the scale of the challenge and bold in designing solutions. “We must refine the regulatory framework so that what constitutes premature or early campaigning is more clearly defined in today’s digital age.

“We must strengthen enforcement, ensuring that violations are detected early and sanctioned firmly, be it by political parties, individuals, or their proxies. We must engage media organizations and social media platforms, encouraging them to cooperate in moderating content that undermines the electoral timetable. We must intensify civic education to enlighten citizens, especially the youth, on the dangers of endorsing and promoting early campaigns.

“Democracy thrives on fairness, order, and respect for the rules, regulations and guidelines governing the electoral process. Campaigns conducted within the time frame stipulated by law ensure a more level playing field, reduce political tension, and enhance the credibility of elections.

“Respecting the law is not a limitation on political participation but an affirmation that our democracy is rooted in integrity, not expediency.”

Jega, who spoke on the sub-theme: “Towards addressing the challenges of premature election campaigns in Nigeria,” described the pattern as an aberration.

“It undermines INEC’s authority, violates the rule of law and erodes the integrity of any election,” he said.

Besides, the former INEC chairman said premature campaigns encouraging lawlessness among political actors and gives unfair political advantage to parties and candidates who are reckless and brazen in disrespecting the law. Jega listed the effects of the pattern on the political system, saying: “Candidates or parties who begin campaigning early often gain more visibility and influence than other candidates, thereby creating an uneven playing field; reduces political competition, and ultimately escalates campaign spending.”

He added: “Similarly, premature campaigns shift focus from governance to politics, especially when incumbents engage in early campaigning, and divert attention to politicking rather than fulfilling their mandates to the electorate.

“Indeed, in the Nigerian context, premature campaigns quite often heat up the polity, increase political rivalry, as well as engenders hate speech, and ethno-religious polarization. This often triggers violence, especially in politically volatile areas, deters peaceful political participation, and weaken the enforcement mechanism to punish the offenders “

Major contributory factors to premature campaigns are the off-circle governorship polls, which are perceived as prelude to the general election. This is different from the four-year electoral circle. These off-circle polls are held in Kogi, Imo, Anambra, Ondo, Osun, Edo, Bayelsa, and Ekiti states. Party chieftains from other states usually storm the eight states in solidarity with their counterparts. The common refrain is that victory at the off-circle elections could predict success at the general election.

Also, the early campaigns generate a sort of economy which brings money to the media in terms of advertisement and income to the poster printers and the influencers.

There is no campaign fatigue as the off- circle poll campaigns usually herald the mobilisation for the general election. As political activities tend to intensify well in advance for the purpose of tenure renewal and power consolidation, politicians may turn governance into secondary business and focus more on elections than service delivery.

Alluding to the impact of early campaigns on Nigeria ‘s democratic system, Taiwo said, based on historical data on elections, they can confer structural advantages on certain political parties.

It is an understatement. In 2015, candidates who initiated mobilisation before the official campaign period established significant media presence and developed grassroots networks before the INEC opened the formal campaign window. It is noteworthy that the All Progressives Congress (APC) kicked off its campaigns immediately the fusion of the legacy parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a faction of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and the new-PDP – was consummated in 2014.

Also, in 2019 and 2023, social media contributed to the trend as candidates used online influencers and digital marketing to reach voters, prior to official campaign periods.

Since the first quarter of 2025, opposition politicians from the PDP, the Coalition Group and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) have been holding elaborate meetings and rallies drumming support for their platforms and campaigning against President Tinubu, who has been endorsed for a second term by the APC.

Not sleeping on guard, groups within the ruling party have reacted by holding endorsement rallies in many states of the federation. Most APC governors have set up endorsement committees which have transformed into campaign structures. The endorsements harboured the elements of premature campaigns.

“These approaches affected public perceptions of fairness in the electoral process and influenced the direction and pace of campaigns before the formal start dates,” said Taiwo, who also explained why politicians start campaigns early.

In her view, aspirants frequently begin their campaign early to demonstrate influence, establish dominance and shape national discourse ahead of elections.

Besides, internal party conflicts may prompt some candidates to initiate indirect campaigns – often through cultural festivals, philanthropic initiatives and branded events – to outpace their competitors and secure endorsements within the party. In extreme cases, some politicians conduct veiled campaigns in churches, mosques and on ethnic platforms.

When former Kaduna State Governor Nosiru El-Rufai, after defecting from APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in March 2025, appealed to the North to reject President Tinubu in 2007 some Arewa, Afenifere and Ohanaeze Ndigbo chieftains started continuity campaigns for the president in the spirit of zoning. To counter the potential regional bullying, a northern musician, Dauda Kahutu Rarara, waxed a record titled: ‘Asiwaju Omo Ologo.’ It is still trending in the region.

In the past, aspirants delivered lectures of various kinds, with the media assisting in their projections through stories, features, analysis and advertisement.

Since social media is not controlled, it is often exploited and abused. “Most individuals use social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram. Tick Tok, You Tube and X (Twitter) to increase their visibility. Due to the lack of explicit penalties, candidates often experience minimal consequences for violating regulations, which can make early campaigning more common,” Taiwo stressed.

To INEC, these premature activities severely compromise the ability to track and enforce campaign finance limits “as politicians, prospective candidates and third-party agents expend large amounts of money that cannot be effectively monitored before the official commencement of campaigns. “

Although the Nigerian Police is charged with protecting the electoral process, it has similarly admitted difficulties in monitoring campaign and enforcing regulations on campaign timings. Since 2024, multiple large billboards have become conspicuous in Abuja, many state capitals, cities and towns across the federation, with messages highlighting the 2027 elections, and often featuring incumbent figures in promotional poses.

Despite public disclaimers from the Presidency and party officials that they did not sponsor the materials, the presence and scale of the display show organised spending and messaging. The police have not acted by pulling any of them down.

At the Abuja conference, Adebayo Sogunle, Commissioner of Police-In-Charge of Election Monitoring, who represented Inspector General Kayode Egbetokun, noted that every law enforcement agency is saddled with the responsibility of ensuring the implementation of all laws passed by the National Assembly. He said in doing that, the question has always been the relevance of such laws to the security and wellbeing of the people and the nation.

Sogunle merely added that the police will continue to enforce all laws, ensure peaceful campaigns and provide security during elections.

Ahmad identified four reasons why enforcement is difficult. He acknowledged the constraints expressed by Jega, pointing out that while campaign in less than 24 hours to the poll attract penalty, those who campaign earlier than 150 days to the poll have no fear of any sanction.

Secondly, he said “many campaign materials are funded and executed by “third party” groups, including independent coalitions, think-tanks or media houses, and this makes it harder to tie spending to a candidate or party for legal purposes.

Thirdly, INEC and the police are handicapped because they fear the repercussions of checking those in power. This is the consequence of weak institutions fretting in the face of intimidating political pressure. “Enforcement agencies such as the INEC and the Police depend in large measure on political actors and the government, for resources and cooperation. Where incumbents benefit from early visibility, the tendency for aggressive enforcement is blunted. In such a situation, enforcement becomes selective, and concomitantly, the relevant institutions get weaker,” Ahmad stressed.

Above all, the Electoral Law, when it was enacted, hardly anticipated the impact of social media portrayals. Social media is comparatively cheaper for image projection. Thus, political gladiators are attracted to the ever-multiplying plethora of online platforms because their messaging goes viral at a lower cost. “This brings up the question of whether existing campaign-timing rules can remain effective in view of the fact that the law was written before this tsunami of low-cost, high-reach digital campaigning,” Ahmad said.

The effect on political behaviour is immense. Candidates who flout the rules through early campaigns have a significant presence in the media and public spaces, which can place those adhering to campaign regulations at a disadvantage. “For example, during the 2015 and 2019 elections, individuals who established early momentum were ultimately able to surpass competitors who complied with the official campaign,” Taiwo recalled.

There is also the money factor. As wealthy aspirants kick-start the race through premature campaigns, their struggling counterparts, who ultimately enter the fray with meagre resources may dry out. This is due to the fact that extended campaigns require additional funding, which can increase the cost of political participation and competition. This situation may ultimately benefit candidates with more financial resources and present challenges for those with fewer resources.

But there is erosion of trust due to lack of a level playing field. When voters observe politicians breaking rules without apparent consequences, confidence in the fairness of elections may decrease, resulting in reduced engagement or increased suspicion about the integrity of the electoral process.

The greatest effect is governance distraction. There is conflict between premature campaigns and service delivery based on current mandate. Putting this dilemma into perspective, Taiwo, who shared the view of Jega and Abdu-Zuru, said: “Office holders who seek re-election may allocate time to campaign, which can result in less focus on immediate governance responsibilities.”

However, many politicians in Nigeria do not believe in the notion of premature campaigns. The Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Electoral Matters, Adebayo Balogun, rejected the notion, saying that “it is vague.”

He queried: “Is it when the governor is commissioning a project and his supporters gather to sing his praises and show appreciation or when a lawmaker empowers his constituents or when the opposition hold rallies to oppose government policies?”

Balogun, who represents Ibeju-Lekki Constituency on the platform of the APC, said restriction is a military legacy. “We should search our minds whether we should be having laws in 2025 restricting campaigns. We should put behind us these practices we inherited from the military and forge democratic ideals going forward,” he added.

The federal legislator pointed out that many candidates do not even know all the people who campaign on their behalf on the social media.

“The social media today cannot be controlled and sometimes, you don’t even know who is putting out posters on your behalf. So, who do you hold responsible when things like this happen? Is it the individual or the political parties?” he asked.

The solution is the amendment of the Electoral Act being proposed by INEC.

Former Director-General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Prof. Tonnie Iredia, who supported the review of the electoral law on campaigns, said: “The law is to blame for premature campaigns because legal provisions on the subject failed to cover the field.

Quoting William Mackenzie, a British political scientist, he added: “If the rules limiting the struggle for power are not observed faithfully, the game will disappear amid the wreckage of the whole system.”

A political writer, Jibrin Ibrahim, who agreed with Iredia’s opinion, pointed out the conflicts in the electoral law is an obstacle.

He said: “Another problem with the Electoral Act 92(4) is its categorical provision that: “No registered political party in Nigeria, its aspirants or candidate shall be prevented from holding rallies, processions or meetings at any time for their constitutional political purposes, and the Police shall in a consultative manner, resolve any conflict of time and venue between and amongst parties where such arises.”

Ibrahim said aspirants who break the premature campaigning provision could always evoke the provision to escape any sanction for the breach they have committed. The way forward, he added, is to refine the regulatory framework so that what constitutes premature or early campaigning is more clearly defined to avoid the ambiguities that create loopholes.

Ibrahim also said that “it is important to strengthen enforcement, ensuring that violations are detected early and sanctioned firmly, be it by political parties, individuals, or their proxies.”

He blamed regulatory agencies for not immediately responding to the breach, saying: “All billboard messages have to be approved by the advertising regulatory agency and the question is: did they approve the message and did they check whether such content violated the law?”

Jega, who insisted that premature campaigns are technical violations, urged Nigeria to emulate countries like Australia, Mexico, Philippines, and to some extent, India, where premature campaigns attract penalties ranging from fines to imprisonment.

Noting that campaigns are very important aspects of elections and they play a significant role in deepening democracy, he said they should be regulated by law.

He said: “For elections to be meaningful, democratic and beneficial to the citizens, they should have integrity; they should be rule-based, transparent, free and fair, and have a level playing field for all participating political parties and candidates. Similarly, their preparation and conduct must be seen to be professional, efficient, non-partisan and impartial.

“Their period and duration should be defined by either the provisions of the constitution or Acts of the legislature and regulate the Election Management Bodies (EMBs)”.

Jega also said all election campaign offences, especially premature campaign offences, should be carefully defined, stiff penalties specified, and strictly applied where applicable, while candidates and their parties, especially incumbent office holders and their political parties, should be vicariously held responsible and penalized for premature campaigns for them by third-parties.

He also suggested that the anti graft bodies, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) should pay special attention to third-party campaigners and thoroughly interrogate their sources of funding.

Jega added: “In determining whether candidates and parties’ expenditures fall within approved limits, the estimated or determined expenditure by a third-party campaigner for the candidate or the party should be taken into consideration.”

The former INEC chairman also said “the recommendation for the establishment of Elections Offences Commission and Tribunal has become even more urgent and important for consideration, and should be addressed in the current or next round of electoral reforms before 2027 elections.”

Ahmad pointed out that two years to the next election season of 2027, the political atmosphere is already overcharged with campaigns. He urged the National Assembly, through legislation or amendment, to close the legal gaps that leave the 150-day rule unenforceable. He said legislative changes should include explicit penalties and a mechanism for swift administrative enforcement of penalties such as fines or takedowns.

Ahmad added: “There is the urgent need to update the rules for digital and out-of-home advertising as well as enhancing the powers of regulatory authorities on takedown. This demands that regulatory bodies are adequately resourced to enforce quick content takedowns and trace digital funding.”

The onus is on regulatory agencies – the Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria (BON), the National Broadcasting Commission (NBC), which regulates the broadcast media and the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON), which regulates advertisement, including outdoor advertising – to live to expectation.

Taiwo called for the disqualification of aspirants or candidate who flout the rules. She said the measures would ensure that political parties are both responsible for internally regulating their candidates and held accountable if they promote or disregard premature campaigns.

She added: “However, INEC should promote public awareness campaigns designed to educate citizens on campaign timelines and the risks associated with premature campaigning. Such initiatives can enhance accountability by empowering voters to demand adherence to established regulations.

“INEC may utilise technology-based monitoring of campaigns, particularly on social media, to track compliance and identify instances of violation." (The Nation)

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