As 2025 comes to an end, conflict and defence analysts caution that 2026 may usher in a period of intensified geopolitical strain, unresolved wars and emerging flashpoints across the globe.

From ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Sudan to the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, alongside growing tensions involving Venezuela and Taiwan, experts say the coming year is unlikely to be any less volatile than the one drawing to a close.

Neophytos Loizides, a professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Warwick, told Anadolu that the overall frequency of conflict is set to rise in the years ahead.

"In the next few years, we will see more conflict now than at any other time in the next few decades."

He stressed that the risks do not stem from any single region, but from “simultaneous global shocks” that governments appear increasingly unable to manage.

Emerging flashpoints

China and Taiwan

Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive geopolitical flashpoints heading into 2026, with recent developments raising concerns about a potential Chinese invasion and escalating tensions among neighbouring countries, as well as between Beijing and Washington.

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province, while Taipei has maintained its insistence on independence since 1949. The US continues to support Taiwan’s defence under the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances that guide Washington’s policy toward the island.

This month, Washington approved $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, one of the largest such packages to date. In November, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te unveiled an almost $40 billion defence spending plan, highlighting growing alarm in Taipei over regional security.

On the other end, China has continued to ramp up military pressure in the region, with Taiwan and Japan voicing concerns over a surge in Chinese military activity.

Loizides said Beijing’s military timeline should not be dismissed, claiming: “We know that the Chinese leadership has instructed its military to be ready for an invasion by 2027."

Any such move, he warned, would likely draw in other regional actors.

"A lot of countries in the region, Japan, most recently, Australia, historically, the Philippines and the Koreans will see it not as a step to reunify China, but as the introduction of new imperial politics and China dominating the region. So, we might see countries engaging to protect Taiwan."

"This will obviously lead to a catastrophic scenario for the entire region."

US and Venezuela

Relations between Washington and Caracas deteriorated further in 2025 following disputed elections in Venezuela, renewed sanctions, tanker seizures and tougher US enforcement measures against Venezuelan oil exports.

The US has accused senior Venezuelan officials of corruption and drug trafficking, while Caracas has repeatedly accused Washington of economic warfare and regime-change efforts.

US President Donald Trump announced a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, including the seizure of a tanker near the Venezuelan coast.

While Washington says the measures aim to combat corruption and drug trafficking, Caracas claims the US is using anti-narcotics operations as a pretext to oust President Nicolas Maduro and seize control of Venezuela’s oil resources.

Experts have also flagged the possibility of direct confrontation between the two countries.

"It is less likely than Taiwan. But the fears of confrontation remain," said Loizides.

ONGOING WARS

Gaza

Analysts say several ongoing wars are likely to persist into 2026, including the conflict in Gaza.

A ceasefire took effect in October after two years of devastating war, during which Israeli bombardment destroyed much of Gaza’s infrastructure and displaced the vast majority of its population.

However, Israeli violations of the truce have continued, with 411 Palestinians have been killed and 1,112 injured since the ceasefire began. The total death toll from the war has surpassed 71,000, mostly women and children, and injured over 171,000 since October 2023.

Despite the current fragile calm, Loizides ruled out the prospect of durable peace.

“Israel has no incentive to keep agreements,” he said. “Any minor violation, real or perceived, becomes a justification for a disproportionate response."

"Israel could continue to violate human rights and humanitarian principles in the case of Gaza."

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in International Security at King’s College London, echoed that assessment.

"There are no signs that either Israel is going to withdraw or Hamas is going to disarm, so the end result is that the conflict will continue...a slow bleed, low intensity conflict."

Sudan

Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is entering its third year with no sign of de-escalation.

The conflict, which began in April 2023, has killed thousands and displaced millions.

Of Sudan’s 18 states, the RSF controls all five states of the Darfur region in the west, except for some northern parts of North Darfur that remain under army control. The army, in turn, holds most areas of the remaining 13 states in the south, north, east, and center, including the capital Khartoum.

Loizides, who sees no end in sight in the coming year, described Sudan as an “interesting case.”

"One will expect that after the breakdown of the country, the partition of the country into north and south, it will enter a conflict resolution phase. This is what we don't see. Partition didn't help," he said, referring to Sudan’s 2011 split that created South Sudan.

According to him, unresolved grievances continue to fuel violence. “Decentralization or federalism would have been a better path.”

Ukraine

Experts are also skeptical about the prospects for a full resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022.

Despite diplomatic initiatives, including a 28-point proposal by the Trump administration, Loizides said any agreement may only freeze the conflict.

“It recognizes the de facto Russian control over certain Ukrainian territories without giving it legal recognition,” he said.

He warned that such an arrangement could remain fragile and may collapse if either side believes it can gain more through continued fighting.

"There is a lot of worry about what's happening in Ukraine and whether the conflict will intensify despite the efforts of the Trump administration to reach a peaceful resolution of the conflict and the commitment the US administration has put into that conflict."

Unresolved conflicts in the Middle East

In the Middle East, analysts say several frontlines remain unresolved.

Pinfold noted that while some conflicts have been frozen or reduced in intensity, none have been settled. "None of these conflicts have been mitigated or resolved."

He described Lebanon as potentially the most dangerous flashpoint.

"Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire, but Israel is constantly attacking Hezbollah targets. It's still bombing parts of Lebanon, not just southern Lebanon, but also Beirut, particularly the Dahiya neighbourhood, as it did recently. It still occupies five key points in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah," Pinfold said.

Beyond Lebanon, tensions remain high between Israel and Iran, after a 12-day conflict that broke out in June 2025, triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities that killed several senior nuclear scientists and military officials.

"The Israeli government is still very hostile to the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is very hostile to Israel, so again, this conflict has not been mitigated, it's simply on a pause for now," said Pinfold.

On Syria, he said Israel continues to view the country as an imminent threat and appears unwilling to engage diplomatically.

Key risk areas

Experts also highlighted other vulnerable regions heading into 2026, particularly in Africa and Asia.

“From Congo to Sudan to Ethiopia, unresolved tensions continue,” Loizides said, warning that many African conflicts “are ignored until they explode.”

One such risk is the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where fighting between government forces and the M23 rebel group persists despite a peace framework. The group, accused by the UN and Kinshasa of receiving support from Rwanda – an allegation Kigali denies – has expanded its control over strategic areas.

Analysts also warned that tensions involving Eritrea and Ethiopia, including clashes in the Tigray region, could trigger further instability.

In South Asia, analysts pointed to escalations between Pakistan and India in 2025, sparked by an April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, where unidentified gunmen killed 26 people in the town of Pahalgam.

The incident led to an exchange of blame and denials, eventually escalating to retaliatory airstrikes and drone attacks that pushed the two nations dangerously close to another major conflict.

Another emerging conflict is the territorial dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Tensions between the two countries escalated into a direct armed confrontation in July 2025 along the border, which was later brought to an end by a ceasefire. (Anadolu Agency)

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