After a year of surprises and upheaval, the airline industry is hoping 2026 brings something rare: a stretch of relative calm.

Whether it gets that wish is another matter. Even in a quieter year, travellers can expect significant changes, from long-promised premium upgrades finally rolling out at scale to airports becoming more pleasant places to spend time and further consolidation reshaping the industry.

Add shifting geopolitics and a rising cost of living that is squeezing travel budgets worldwide, and the year ahead looks anything but dull.

Here are the trends set to shape air travel in 2026.

‘Premiumization’ takes off

“The premium experience — things like cabin products, elevated airport lounges, and more direct routes — is the best it’s been in decades,” wrote travel deal website Going in its 2026 outlook.

From American Airlines to JetBlue, Southwest Airlines and Swiss Air, long-promised premium products — from lounges to seats — are set to become widely available rather than confined to a handful of aircraft. These investments will offer travellers willing to pay up — or redeem points for — posher and more comfortable digs at the front of the plane.

American Chief Financial Officer Devon May described 2026 in December as an “execution” year for initiatives unveiled years ago. The carrier introduced its long-awaited new Flagship business and premium economy seats on a Boeing 787 midyear and on the Airbus A321XLR in December. But, by this time next year, the new offerings will be on dozens of planes including American’s largest, the Boeing 777-300ER, flying routes all over the world.

“We’re excited to be a premium global airline,” said May. “We think that is where these demand trends will continue to go.”

The data supports that view. The International Air Transport Association, the global airline trade group, cited “robust demand” for premium travel in a December outlook, particularly in Asia, Europe and North America. Since the pandemic, IATA data shows premium airline traffic growth consistently outpacing economy travel.

Even longtime egalitarian stalwart Southwest is leaning into the shift. The carrier will begin selling its first-ever premium product — extra-legroom seats — in January, and Chief Executive Bob Jordan has hinted at more to come.

“We’re changing to meet the needs of the customer,” Jordan told CNBC earlier in December, adding that the airline is “actively pursuing” a network of premium airport lounges.

Airport upgrades for everyone

Air travel is in the midst of a golden age for airport lounges. Airlines are trying to one-up each other with ever-more polished spaces, like JetBlue’s new BlueHouse in New York. Credit card companies are investing heavily to attract new customers. The result is airport lounges that are more plentiful and accessible than ever.

Airports are following suit. Out are the sterile concourses with mediocre chain shops and waiting areas with rows of identical seats. In are local food and retail, art-filled terminals, varied seating options, and, in some cases, outdoor patios.

Global architecture firm Gensler refers to this vision as the “lounge for all.” The concept recognizes that travellers are spending increasing amounts of time in the secure areas of airports with improved amenities, design and — inevitably — ample opportunities to spend money.

“The airside of the future is going to be a lot more, not a mall per se, but a variety of spaces that intertwine and give passengers a little bit more ‘choose your own adventure,’” said Ty Osbaugh, an aviation leader and principal at Gensler.

Airports in Denver, Portland, OR, and San Francisco already showcase many of these ideas. New terminals at New York’s JFK Airport and Seattle-Tacoma, opening in 2026, are expected to follow suit.

Mergers are changing the airline landscape

Air France-KLM and the Lufthansa Group in Europe, Korean Air in Asia, and Alaska Airlines in the United States all aim to hit major merger milestones in 2026 — changes that could significantly affect travellers.

Paris-based Air France-KLM hopes to close a deal for majority control of SAS Scandinavian Airlines next year. If approved by European regulators, the move would allow closer integration, potentially combining SAS EuroBonus and Air France-KLM Flying Blue loyalty programs and bringing SAS into its transatlantic partnership with Delta Air Lines. Air France-KLM first took a minority stake in SAS in 2024.

In Frankfurt, the Lufthansa Group is pressing ahead with the integration of Italy’s ITA Airways. Plans call for merging ITA’s Volare loyalty program into Miles & More in the first quarter and adding ITA to Lufthansa’s transatlantic partnership with Air Canada and United Airlines by the end of 2026. Lufthansa plans to take full control of ITA by 2027 after acquiring a 41% stake this January.

ITA has already announced new flights to United’s Houston hub from Rome beginning in May and CEO Joerg Eberhart said United’s Newark hub was also on its shortlist of future destinations.

In Asia, Korean Air aims to complete its integration of Asiana Airlines in 2026, including combining loyalty programs, aligning schedules, and withdrawing Asiana from the Star Alliance.

In the United States, Alaska Airlines is nearing completion of its merger with Hawaiian Airlines. One of the final major passenger-facing steps — migrating Hawaiian to Alaska’s reservations system — is on track for April.

Other changes remain uncertain. The future of bankrupt Spirit Airlines is unresolved, with possibilities ranging from a full shutdown to a potential merger with Frontier Airlines on the table. And, in Latin America, Avianca and GOL owner the Abra Group is awaiting approval to buy Chilean discounter Sky Airline.

Decisions by world leaders will again shape air travel in 2026. One notable change is the European Union’s new ETIAS travel authorization program, scheduled to debut in the fourth quarter. Travelers who do not need a visa will need to register in advance and pay a fee of 20 euros, or around $23.

In the United States, proposed changes could pose additional risks. The Trump administration has suggested requiring travellers from visa-waiver countries to provide five years of social media history and 10 years of email addresses when applying for ESTA authorization. If implemented, T.D. Cowen airline analyst Tom Fitzgerald described the proposal in a December report as a “risk to inbound tourism, especially for the World Cup.”

The new rules could further dampen demand to visit the US by foreign travellers. International visits to the United States fell in 2025 to 85% of 2019 levels, according to data from the US Travel Association. The group expects arrivals to rebound in 2026, but only to about 89% of pre-pandemic levels.

Another concern, according to Fitzgerald, is the possibility of a federal government shutdown when the current budget resolution expires on January 30. A shutdown last fall disrupted tens of thousands of travellers as flights were cancelled to ease strain on the air traffic control system.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in December that he hoped 2026 would be “a little more stable environment on the political front.”

Internationally, the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine and turmoil around the Middle East is likely to continue to impact airline route maps, adding hours onto long-haul journeys between Europe and Asia, and pushing up fuel consumption and ticket prices.

Inflation continues to bite into travel budgets

“The industry is experiencing a full-on K-shaped divergence, where the upper arm of the ‘K’ (premium cabins, brand-loyal flyers, and luxury-leaning travellers) is soaring, while the lower arm (full of cheap-flight-loving travellers) is dragging,” according to Going’s report.

Recent data from Bank of America shows spending among higher-income groups increasing at 2.6% while lower-income groups increased at just 0.6% — two whole percentage points less — in November. The bank cited low wage growth and broader economic uncertainty among the latter group for the minimal increase.

This is good news for airlines and all of their premium investments, wrote Raymond James airlines analyst Savanthi Syth earlier in December. On the flip side, it suggests minimal growth next year at the economy end of the market.

Airline growth to slow

European carrier Aegean Airlines will launch new nonstop flights to India in 2026.

All of these factors together mean airlines plan less growth in 2026. Or, as Swiss Air CEO Jens Fehlinger said in September, industry expansion will “normalize” next year after the heady days after the pandemic when revenge travel was in full swing and airlines raced to catch up.

IATA expects passenger traffic to rise 4.9% in 2026, down from a forecast 5.2% increase this year.

That does not mean airlines will not launch some interesting new lines. Alaska Airlines will make its European debut with new flights from Seattle to Rome in April, and Reykjavik and London in May.

And United Airlines, fresh off adding off-the-beaten path holiday spots like Greenland and Mongolia to its map in 2025, plans additions like Santiago de Compostela in Spain and Split in Croatia this coming summer.

Elsewhere, European carrier Aegean Airlines will stretch its legs with new nonstops from Athens to New Delhi and Mumbai on an Airbus A321XLR. Iberia will stretch its XLR legs with new nonstops to Brazil, Canada and the United States from Madrid. And Air Canada will for the first-time ever connect Toronto’s downtown Billy Bishop Airport with New York LaGuardia. (CNN)

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