Growing global dependence on a single country for critical minerals poses a serious risk to energy security and could spark international tensions as early as 2026, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) told Anadolu.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said one country dominates the critical minerals market, controlling between 70% and 80% of supply, calling the imbalance one of the most serious risks facing the global energy system.

"It is not right to depend on one country," Birol said. "The golden rule of energy security is diversification. You need to reduce risks by sourcing oil, natural gas, critical minerals and nuclear fuel from as many different countries as possible."

"I think there could be serious tensions between countries over critical minerals in 2026," he added.

Birol said Türkiye could benefit from global efforts to diversify supply chains, noting that the country has reserves of certain critical minerals and experience in managing complex energy sectors. He stressed, however, that development must take environmental and geological considerations into account.

"The global effort to work with countries other than China and diversify supply sources presents an opportunity for Türkiye," he said.

According to the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, China is the leading refiner for 19 out of 20 key strategic minerals, with an average market share of around 70%.

As global competition intensifies, Türkiye is positioning itself not only as a resource-rich country but increasingly as a producer of value-added minerals fundamental to the clean-energy economy.

Türkiye is seeking to become one of the world's top five producers of rare earth elements. At the Beylikova site in the central province of Eskisehir, exploration has identified total resources of 694 million tons, including significant deposits of barite and fluorite reserves.

The site contains about 12.5 million tons of rare earth oxides, covering 10 of the 17 known rare earth elements. According to Turkish officials, with these reserves, Beylikova ranks second globally after China’s Bayan Obo rare earth mine in Inner Mongolia.

Describing 2025 as a difficult year for energy markets, Birol said geopolitical tensions have become increasingly intertwined with energy, influencing prices and supply across nearly all fuels.

"Most importantly, the world is receiving signals that the coming years could be extremely challenging for critical minerals," he said. "We use critical minerals in almost every sector of our economy today, and in that sense, we could face serious problems with minerals such as copper, zinc and magnesium," he added.

LNG market entering new phase

Birol noted that oil and natural gas prices have broadly declined in line with the agency's forecasts, calling it “good news for energy-importing countries such as Türkiye."

Turning to liquefied natural gas (LNG), he said the market is entering a new phase, recalling the agency’s forecast of a supply glut by the end of 2025 and said prices are already falling as new projects emerge.

Over the next five years, around 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG supply is expected to enter the market, he said, adding: "For many years this was a seller's market. Now it is becoming a buyer's market."

More than 70% of new LNG volumes will be sold under flexible contracts rather than fixed destinations, strengthening the hand of importing countries, Birol said.

"This is extremely good news for countries like Türkiye," he noted. "It will strengthen the position of importing countries and is also good news for the economy, because prices will fall further."

Weak grids threaten energy transition

Birol also pointed to record growth in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, but warned that weak grid infrastructure is emerging as a major obstacle to the energy transition.

He said power plants with a combined capacity about five times greater than last year’s renewable additions remain unable to connect to electricity networks due to inadequate transmission and distribution systems.

He added that one of the world's biggest challenges is the question of how to rapidly expand electricity transmission and distribution networks.

Birol said Türkiye has taken significant steps in solar and wind energy but stressed that further progress is needed given the country's vast potential.

"To deploy renewable energy quickly and safely while ensuring electricity security, we need to strengthen existing grids, build new ones and urgently secure the necessary financing," he said.

'COP31 in Türkiye could help refocus global climate agenda'

Birol also welcomed Türkiye's role in hosting the COP31 in 2026 alongside Australia, at a time when climate change is slipping down political agendas in many countries.

"It is very good news for Türkiye," he said. "It offers another opportunity to show that the country is a bridge between regions and countries on both energy and climate."

Birol said he hopes the summit will give developing countries a stronger voice on access to clean energy finance and draw attention to Africa's growing energy and climate challenges.

"It will also be a valuable opportunity for Türkiye to show the world how sensitive and committed it is in its own climate policies," he noted.

Climate-related disasters are becoming more frequent and severe, even as political attention to climate change declines, Birol said. "I hope COP31 in Türkiye can help put climate back where it belongs, at the top of leaders' agendas." (Anadolu Agency)

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