Moviegoers escaped into director James Cameron’s sci-fi universe this weekend, driving the third installment of the “Avatar” franchise to an estimated $88 million domestically.

The opening was shy of analysts’ expectations that it could earn more than $100 million in its first weekend. The first “Avatar” movie debuted in 2009 to $115 million, adjusted for inflation. The second film, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” opened in 2022 to $134 million domestically.

But “Avatar: Fire and Ash” also earned roughly $257 million internationally, bringing its global opening to $345 million. It will likely remain a top draw for moviegoers during the holidays and as it plays into January, said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.

“As an international, especially 3D phenomenon, and in IMAX and the other premium formats, ‘Avatar’ is an event movie,” he said.

The movie’s nearly $400 million budget may weaken the chances for a fourth film if it has a disappointing return compared with more popular live-action formats, Cameron told CNN’s Jason Carroll last week. The franchise’s fate will be determined by “Fire and Ash’s” success over the coming weeks, Cameron said.

Movie theater attendance has declined in recent years as streaming services have proliferated and Americans have scaled back on discretionary spending. But blockbuster films like the “Avatar” franchise often lure back audiences who prefer the big screen, IMAX or 3D experiences.

“The theater is a sacred space for me as a filmmaker,” Cameron told CNN. “It’s never going to go away. But I think it could fall below a threshold where the kinds of movies that I like to make, and I like to see, won’t be sustainable. They won’t be economically viable. We’re very close to that right now.”

Optimism for year-end box office

Despite a strong December, Hollywood failed to return to pre-pandemic levels this year. The domestic box office is down 22.5% compared with 2019, and up just 1.3% year-over-year, with earnings totaling $8.37 billion, according to Comscore.

Theaters, analysts and movie studios rejoiced in 2023, when the release of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” revived hope that the theater experience could still thrive. The box office surpassed $9 billion that year, the first and only time since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Though audiences are still showing up to theaters, it “remains to be seen” whether the box office will reach $9 billion again, Dergarabedian said.

“The box office, considering all the ups and downs this year, is going to turn out just fine, and actually lead into what I think could be the biggest post-pandemic year, in 2026,” he said.

This weekend got a boost from Angel Studios’ “David.” The biblical animation adventure movie raked in $22 million and came in second overall.

Lionsgate Films’ psychological thriller “The Housemaid” earned $19 million domestically to finish third this weekend. And family audiences were drawn to theaters for Paramount Pictures’ “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants,” which earned $16 million.

The three openers could have been major hits if they were released during a slow month like October, said Boxoffice Pro’s editorial director, Daniel Loria. They instead “complement” one another and have time to attract the right audiences through the holidays, he said.

A24’s “Marty Supreme,” Focus Features’ “Song Sung Blue” and Sony Pictures’ “Anaconda” all open in wide release next weekend.

“Marty Supreme,” an awards contender, opened in six theaters this weekend. It finished ninth overall with $875,000 in domestic earnings.

Meanwhile, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” may continue to attract big audiences.

Theaters have seen an uptick in the frequency of moviegoers. There were 33% habitual moviegoers — people who watch at least six movies a year — in August, up from 25% last year, according to Cinema United.

The gains in frequent moviegoers come as theater owners invested $1.5 billion in upgrades over the past year, according to Cinema United. And investments in premium large screens that show movies like “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” as well as deluxe seats and concessions, have driven Gen Zers to theaters.

Courting those young audiences, both through family-friendly movies and adaptations like Warner Bros. Pictures’ “A Minecraft Movie” and Universal’s “Five Nights at Freddy’s 2,” has always been difficult, said Shawn Robbins, an analyst at Box Office Theory. Warner Bros. Discovery is the parent company of CNN.

“What it takes to bring people out to theaters is a little different than it used to be, and I think studios are finally starting to hone in on how to make that really work for the current and future generations,” Robbins said. (CNN)

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