With Friday’s defection of 17 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, all now seems set for another round of conflict between the governor and majority members of the state legislature led by the Speaker, Martins Amaewhule.

Analysts, however, posit that the state assembly members are just pawns in a proxy war between the governor and the immediate past governor of the state and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.

The first round of crisis, when it started early in the life of the current administration, escalated to the level that a six-month emergency rule was imposed on the state while Governor Fubara, his deputy and the entire legislative structure in the state were suspended from office.

The emergency rule ended only in September, barely three months ago, and now a fresh crisis bearing all the characteristics and features of the previous one is rearing its head.

Prelude to the fresh crisis

Since Fubara returned to office in September, he has behaved in ways that many think would placate the FCT minister and his loyalists. He has for instance pledged loyalty to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the FCT minister and has refrained from making caustic statements against the minister as he was wont to do in the past. He has also stayed away from the activities of the Bala Mohammed-led group of the PDP so as not to anger the FCT minister.

Fubara, while speaking during the combined 37th and 38th convocation of the Rivers State University, Nkpolu-Oroworukwo, Port Harcourt, on Saturday, said that God’s grace and President Bola Tinubu’s intervention restored him to office after what he described as a six-month suspension and an emergency rule declared by the president.

He said: “You all know what happened in the life of our administration. It is only by the special grace of God, the special favour from Mr President, that we are standing here still as the ones presiding over the affairs of Rivers State.

“So, I assure you that now that we are back with the support of all stakeholders, we will resume our responsibilities and ensure that every complaint mentioned here will be addressed.”

But from all indications, that has not been enough to stave off hostility towards him.

There are fears that with the resurgence of the misunderstanding between Fubara and the House of Assembly, the presentation of the 2026 budget of the state government may be stalled again.

Daily Trust gathered that the fiscal responsibility law states that the budget presentation, defence and passage should be between 30th of September and the 30th of December in the preceding year as anything short of that is already in contravention of the law.

The Amaewhule-led assembly loyal to Wike, had on Friday after the 17 members of the assembly defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), announced adjournment till January 29, 2026.

A situation many political players in the state see as a deliberate attempt by the assembly to dodge the budget presentation by Governor Fubara.

Fubara had recently hinted that he would present the 2026 2026 Appropriation Bill to the assembly at the newly reconstructed assembly complex which is expected to be completed before the end of December 2025.

Special Assistant on Media to the Speaker, Martins Wachukwu, in a statement after some members of the house defected to APC, quoted the Majority Leader, Hon Major Jack, calling the attention of the house to its earlier call, wherein the house urged the governor to forward his list of commissioner-nominees to the house for screening and confirmation in line with the 1999 Constitution; adding that till date that request has not been attended to and the state is yet to have the compliment of a full cabinet.

It is uncertain if the house will reconvene to allow the governor present the budget, even as the house at the plenary also rejected to move to the almost completed new assembly complex.

The real issues

Since the reinstatement of the democratic structures and lifting of emergency rule in Rivers State, Governor Fubara and the assembly members have been struggling to work despite several claims that the contending issues that led to the emergency rule have been settled and that peace has returned.

Last week, the Speaker, Amaewhule, criticised Fubara for not intervening in the dilapidated structures in the public schools in the state.

Amaewhule also claimed that the former administrator, Ibok Ete-Ibas, left over N600bn in the state coffers as at the time he left, alleging that the executive refused to use the fund in remedying the situation in schools and employ teachers.

An insider in the assembly told Daily Trust that a key factor that contributed to the resurgence of the crisis is the inability of Governor Fubara to send in commissioner- nominees for screening by the House of Assembly, where members may be having the privilege to also recommend their allies.

He said another issue was the alleged N600bn left in the state’s coffers by Ete-Ibas, which the lawmakers and their godfather believe that the governor is using to fund political groups ahead of his re-election plans.

It was also gathered that the continuous retention of some of the governor’s loyalists, including his Chief of Staff, Hon. Edison Ehi, some house members who were with the governor during the initial crisis and the sacked local government chairmen, who are still loyal to the governor, angered the lawmakers.

The first round of crisis

The conflict began in October, 2023, with the crisis in the state assembly which led to the torching down of the assembly complex.

The tension was so severe that there were fears that members of the assembly were plotting to impeach the governor. Since then, the matter had been through several litigations with courts of concurrent jurisdiction giving contradictory orders.

The last straw that broke the camel’s back was when in March, the Supreme Court struck out Governor Fubara’s suit seeking to declare the lawmakers’ seats vacant.

Tinubu meets Fubara after session with 6 APC govs

President Tinubu on Monday met with Governor Fubara at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. The two leaders met in a closed-door session after the president earlier met with six APC governors in his office.

Details of the meeting were not disclosed to journalists, just as Fubara also refused to speak with state house correspondents after the meeting.

However, the meeting was coming closely following speculations that the governor might be planning to join the APC.

Since his issues with Wike, Fubara has not been seen in any meeting with members of the PDP or PDP governors.

Last week, 17 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, including the Speaker, Martin Amaewhule, loyal to Wike, left the PDP to the APC, a development the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party said they would challenge in court.

Also, the six governors who met with President Tinubu on Monday are Usman Ododo (Kogi), Umar Namadi (Jigawa), Monday Okpebholo (Edo), Biodun Oyebanji (Ekiti) Nasir Idris (Kebbi) and Ahmad Aliyu (Sokoto).

When approached by state house correspondents after the meeting, the governors declined to comment on the reason for their visit.

Also, the presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, who posted the pictures of the visit, did not state the reason.

How analysts view the crisis

Some analysts have weighed in the situation, saying the situation needed to be handled with care to avert breakdown of law and order.

In the wake of the defection of the 17 members of the House of Assembly from PDP to APC, a citizen of the state, Comrade David-West Benewarie David, advised Governor Fubara to also join the APC.

David-West, while speaking with Daily Trust on Monday, said Governor Fubara did not have any issue with the defection as his body language showed he might soon join them, advising the governor to establish a good working relationship with the lawmakers.

He said: “For me, I think the governor’s fate still remains his fate not withstanding that 17 members of the state assembly, including the speaker, have defected again for the second time, making mockery of defection, but that is immaterial anyway. For me, I think the executive governor of the state, His Excellency, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, does not have any issue, he doesn’t have any problem, even the governor himself may soon move to APC, so what fate again will he be looking for.

“The governor himself, his soul and body is in the ruling party, so they would still meet and work together, Mr. President had directed them to go back and work together, so on that premise, I do not think His Excellency the governor is threatened in any way because he too would soon or is a member of the APC, he is just answering PDP for now.

“If all the assembly members defect, the governor would still have no threat, upon the premise that they have met with Mr President. He has brokered peace and the FCT minister who is their principal too was in the meeting. So, I think the decision of Mr President stands.

“So, the office of the governor is not threatened in anyway no matter the defection of the 17 lawmakers or the entire House of Assembly members, because the governor himself, his body language, shows he may be moving to the APC.

“My advice to the governor is that, as it stands now, the PDP which is the ruling party in the state does not have the majority in the assembly again, so what I will advise the governor to do is to work with the speaker and his cohorts so that the impeachment saga should not come back again. The governor should be communicating to them based on the directive of the president.

“He should avoid anything that will cause confrontation between himself and the House of Assembly so that there will be peace, but where he doesn’t do that, he is bound to have problem, and if the FCT minister is with them, it will now turn another distraction for him, but I know that neither the governor nor House of Assembly members would want to stroll on that part of emergency rule again, it was a lose situation for both sides, so they will not want to embark on that same journey again.

“The governor should at any given point in time liaise with the speaker and members of the assembly to avoid problems.”

Reacting to the defections, Barrister E.M.D. Umukoro said although the lawmakers framed laws to cure a defect or provide solutions to ameliorate difficulties in society, people would still find ways to circumvent it as is the case of the Rivers lawmakers.

“The legal implication of the situation is that PDP is now a minority and therefore an opposition in the Rivers State House of Assembly while the APC is now the majority,” he said.

He further noted that the executive in the state was now controlled by the PDP, while the legislative arm was mainly APC.

“However, the issue of division of the PDP is a rebuttable fact to be tested in court if the PDP leadership are minded to test the legality or illegality of such cross-carpeting of party members who won political positions under the party.

“Until a political party is willing to do so: the decamping of politicians may never stop, particularly where their party is not at the federal level of governance,” he stated. (Daily Trust)

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