By YUSHAU A. SHUAIB

Before U.S. President Donald Trump?s threat to invade Nigeria over alleged Christian genocide, the nation was already gripped by defection fever. The mass abduction of students by terrorists?eerily reminiscent of the Chibok girls? tragedy?has revived painful memories of 2014, when insecurity contributed to the defeat of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. That episode, too, bore the fingerprints of foreign interference, amplified by international governments and media.

Meanwhile, when Ifeanyi Okowa, former Delta State Governor and running mate to Atiku Abubakar under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), defected to the ruling APC. His move reverberated across the country. Few expected such a prominent figure to cross over?especially at a time when governors, senators, and representatives at both state and federal levels were abandoning their platforms for the ruling party. That moment may well be remembered as the beginning of the most devastating political exodus in PDP?s history. Once formidable strongholds?Akwa Ibom, Taraba, Enugu, and even Bayelsa, the home state of former President Jonathan?have gradually fallen under APC?s influence.

For the PDP, the unravelling appears self-inflicted. Much of the crisis is linked to the ambitions and grudges of the current Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike. Since losing the vice-presidential slot to Okowa after the PDP primaries in 2022, Wike has seized every opportunity to undermine the party?s cohesion. Atiku Abubakar bears responsibility here: commonsense should have guided his choice of running mate between Wike and Okowa. Without Wike?s tactical and logistical support, APC?s 2023 victory would have been far less certain.

It is therefore unsurprising that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu rewarded Wike with the powerful position of Minister of the FCT?effectively making him the de facto governor of the capital city. While Wike?s record in infrastructure development is commendable, his loud, confrontational style and relentless attacks on PDP leadership raise serious concerns. His insistence on remaining a PDP member while openly advancing APC interests only deepens the confusion. Rumours of his influence over judicial processes further complicate the discourse.

Beyond the PDP, Nigeria is witnessing a political realignment of unprecedented scale. Major figures from the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) are defecting to the APC with startling frequency. Legislators, state chairmen, national officers, influential mobilisers, and even former presidential campaign strategists have joined the ruling party?some out of ambition, others out of sheer survival.

What makes this wave of defections remarkable is its timing. These shifts are occurring not during an election cycle, when political realignments are expected, but in a period when parties should be consolidating their structures, refining ideology, and strengthening internal cohesion. Instead, the opposition is being hollowed out. This raises a critical question: Is Nigeria drifting towards a ?Chinese-style democracy??a system dominated by a single ruling party with minimal or no opposition?

In China, what is described as ?socialist democracy with Chinese characteristics? functions in practice as a one-party authoritarian state. The model has produced impressive development outcomes but also alarming governance concerns. Its advantages are clear: a dominant ruling party eliminates the turbulence of constant competition, ensuring policy continuity and stability.

For instance, China's president and paramount leader, Xi Jinping, governs with near-imperial authority?free from legislative gridlock or opposition-induced delays. This enables swift policymaking, efficient execution, and infrastructure projects delivered at remarkable speed. China's meteoric rise?from agrarian poverty to the world's second-largest economy?attests to the effectiveness of this model.

Yet in the Chinese system, the downsides are equally profound. A one-party state weakens institutional checks and balances, curtails civic freedoms, narrows democratic space, and stifles dissent. Without electoral accountability, leaders may lack incentives to deliver good governance. Suppressing alternative ideas risks intellectual stagnation and policy errors born of unchecked power. China has managed to avoid some of these pitfalls due to its unique cultural and political context, but its model remains unsuitable for most nations.

Meanwhile, Nigeria is far from adopting Chinese-style authoritarianism. Yet some observers argue that under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria is experimenting with a similar ease of governance, benefiting from a excessively cooperative legislature under Senate President Goodwill Akpabio and a judiciary under Chief Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun that appear aligned with executive priorities.

Still, the trend of defections and the centralisation of political power should alarm anyone who values democratic pluralism. A democracy without viable opposition is one that is slowly losing its soul. The collapse of opposition threatens the legacy of Nigeria?s founding fathers?Nnamdi Azikiwe, Ahmadu Bello, and Obafemi Awolowo?whose ideological diversity and competitive rivalry gave life to Nigeria?s earliest democratic vitality.

Politicians justify their defections with claims of ?alignment with federal power,? ?access to development,? or ?national interest.? In reality, Nigeria?s democratic architecture is being dangerously compromised.

Nigeria must resist drifting?whether willingly or inadvertently?into an undeclared one-party system. The APC has every constitutional right to expand its influence, but the survival of democracy depends on sustaining a strong, credible opposition. A nation of over 200 million diverse people cannot thrive under political uniformity. It must preserve a system where ideas clash, dissent thrives, and alternative visions flourish.

As Nigeria navigates this evolving political landscape, policymakers, civil society, and voters must insist on protecting the integrity of multiparty democracy. A dominant party may offer temporary stability, but only a balanced political structure can secure long-term peace, progress, and national cohesion.

?Yushau A. Shuaib is the author of ?An Encounter with the Spymaster?

yashuaib@yashuaib.com

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